Halloween is past. Committee rankings are due on Tuesday. College football enters the final stretch of the regular season with things as unsettled as I remember them being in the playoff (4-team and 12-team) era. Miami has differentiated itself as an obvious number one, but some cracks in the façade have shown up in recent weeks. Does Notre Dame expose them this week? Who will emerge from the Big Ten and SEC royal rumbles?
1. Miami (8-0) (Power: 1, Resume: 4, Last Week: 1)
This week is the week for the ‘Canes. Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney can put themselves squarely in the pole positions for the Heisman. Miami can pretty much lock up the top overall seed with a win this week (and avoid any surprising future stumbles).
2. Alabama (6-2) (Power: 3, Resume: 6, Last Week: 2)
Now we get to see if Alabama used its bye week to “get right” or if the downward trajectory of the season continues. The Crimson Tide will be in great shape if they can beat LSU this weekend, but all but eliminated with a loss.
3. LSU (6-2) (Power: 2, Resume: 14, Last Week: 4)
I could pretty much put the same thing I did about Alabama and just interpose the names. R.I.P. to Whit Weeks marrying into the Kiffin dynasty.
4. Notre Dame (7-1) (Power: 4, Resume: 11, Last Week: 3)
My podcast co-host, Levi, disagrees with me. This is not a must-win for Notre Dame, but if they want a shot at a first-round bye it would really help.
5. Texas (6-2) (Power: 8, Resume: 5, Last Week: 6)
It would have been fun to see Kamario Taylor try to solve this Longhorns’ defense. Alas, injuries take the best things from us. As up, down and all around as this season has been, they can still pretty much assure a playoff spot if they can close things out with wins over Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M.
6. Georgia (7-1) (Power: 5, Resume: 12, Last Week: 7)
The Auburn loss might be the ultimate “WTF?” result of the season when it’s all said and done. The Dawgs showed again that they are legitimate title contenders.
7. Ole Miss (6-2) (Power: 6, Resume: 8, Last Week: 13)
It didn’t start out pretty for the Rebs, but Trinidad turned it on late. I’m going to start to sound like a broken record talking about these two-loss SEC teams, but it really is as simple as “win and you’re in.”
8. Utah (8-0) (Power: 10, Resume: 1, Last Week: 12)
The Utes but Cincinnati’s thoughts of back-to-back upsets to bed early. Morgan Scalley has instilled the same toughness in the trenches that was the hallmark of the Kyle Whittingham era, and Devon Dampier is capable of going toe-to-toe with any quarterback in the country.
9. Wake Forest (7-1) (Power: 9, Resume: 10, Last Week: 14)
I know Wake Forest is a Power 4 program, but this is a modern-day (aka NIL era) mid-major situation. Their estimated roster NIL budget is less than $20 million, which is in the bottom quartile of power 4 and ACC schools.
10. UCLA (8-0) (Power: 13, Resume: 3, Last Week: 8)
The ongoing drop in the rankings reflects what the eye test is also telling us. Even though the Bruins keep winning, this offense isn’t the same without Nico at quarterback.
11. Ohio State (6-2) (Power: 7, Resume: 20, Last Week: 5)
The Buckeyes moved the ball really well 20-to-20. They actually outgained USC 464-338. The problem was they couldn’t find the end zone when it counted, which is where not having your experienced quarterback is really felt.
12. Indiana (8-1) (Power: 12, Resume: 9, Last Week: 9)
This team feels destined to keep skating by on thin ice until the ice breaks in the Big Ten title game and/or playoff quarterfinals.
13. Houston (6-2) (Power: 11, Resume: 13, Last Week: 11)
History is littered with teams who came up just short in their biggest moments. Unfortunately, this will be one of them. It shouldn’t be lost on anyone how good Willie Fritz is at coaching football though.
14. BYU (7-1) (Power: 16, Resume: 7, Last Week: 10)
The Holy War won’t be an elimination game for the Coogs, but it would erase any margin for error. They need LJ Martin back and healthy for the stretch run.
15. Kentucky (7-1) (Power: 23, Resume: 2, Last Week: 16)
Kentucky sits alone atop the SEC standings right now…but does anyone trust them to win a big game? Multiple playoff games?
16. Tennessee (6-2) (Power: 14, Resume: 19, Last Week: 18)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: a two-loss SEC team has three big weeks ahead of it with everything on the line.
17. Florida (5-3) (Power 17, Resume: 21, Last Week: 17)
Jon Summrall’s nervous energy was a detriment for the Gators this week. Aaron Philo’s first interception was the worst play I’ve seen a quarterback makes since…butt fumble?
18. Missouri (6-2) (Power: 21, Resume: 17, Last Week: 24)
With Ahmad Hardy back from his Plaxico Burress situation, the Tigers have a formidable two-headed monster at running back.
19. Texas Tech (7-1) (Power: 26, Resume: 15, Last Week: 19)
Cody Campbell is probably marginally happier this week. The truth is Texas Tech is good enough in the trenches to have an incredibly high floor. Regardless of the quarterback, the ceiling is much lower than last year’s team.
20. Oregon (5-3) (Power: 19, Resume: 23, Last Week: 23)
The Ducks are just looking to save face and hit the reset button. Taking down former boss Chip Kelly was all part of that plan, obviously.
21. Oklahoma State (5-3) (Power: 15, Resume: 33, Last Week: 15)
This team has to have the strangest resume in the Power 4.
22. Iowa (6-2) (Power: 22, Resume: 22, Last Week: NR)
Iowa being 22nd in composite, power and resume is the most on-brand thing in college football.
23. South Carolina (5-3) (Power: 18, Resume: 26, Last Week: NR)
Clemson has spoiled their own season, so the ‘Cocks last chance to play spoiler comes when they host Georgia in 3 weeks. At this point, the last month is about Shane Beamer proving he’s still the right man for this job.
24. USC (7-2) (Power: 35, Resume 16, Last Week: NR)
Talented but flawed seems to be the best way to describe this USC team. Hell, that probably describes every Lincoln Riley team.
25. Louisville (5-3) (Power: 20, Resume: 37, Last Week: NR)
The NC State loss, pre-Dave Doeren dismissal, is an indefensible blight on an otherwise defensible resume. My former employer’s other losses are 3-point losses to Ole Miss and Wake Forest.
First Five Out: Boise State, Northwestern, Arizona, Baylor, Pitt
The Dropouts: UCF, Northwestern, Missouri, Wisconsin
Cover Photo Courtesy of Sony BMG Catalog
