Week 8 NFL Picks: The Season of the Witch

My wife loves Halloween. I love my wife. That means I’ve spent the last month listening to a Halloween playlist every time we get in the car to go to work or the grocery store or wherever. There’s one song on this playlist that absolutely slaps: Donovan’s “Season of the Witch.” For this year’s annual “spooky szn” column, we’re giving some shouts to Donovan (and my wife, whom I love) and ranking the top five pop culture witches.

Photo Courtesy of Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Tier 1: Hermione Granger (Season Record: 3-10-1)

Rams -6.5 over Chargers

Falcons +2.5 over Bucs

For purposes of this exercise, I limited myself to one character per fictional universe. Hermione Granger is the obvious choice from the Harry Potter universe. Harry doesn’t take down Voldy without her. Hell, Harry doesn’t even survive his first year at Hogwarts without her. Aside from being critical to Harry’s success and survival, she also manages to keep “The Chosen One’s” ego in check. Remember in “The Half-Blood Prince” when she whacks him on the nose with a newspaper? Like he’s a dog who tried to steal her dinner? Epic. Hermione forever. (Minerva McGonagall gets honorable mention here as the second-best witch in the Harry Potter universe).

Don’t let this pick fool you. I’m not completely convinced the Rams are #back just because they beat a fading Raiders team last week. However, I do think they are #back enough to easily dispatch a Chargers team that hasn’t been competitive in most of their games this season. Los Angeles (the formerly San Diego one) seems like they are racing to Cancun and some major personnel shake-ups already. The other Los Angeles (the formerly Los Angeles and St. Louis one) still employs Les Snead in their front office, which means their chips remain squarely in the middle of the table. They will be looking for more games like last week to jump start them into the home stretch.

No team has flipped my view about them coming into the season quite like Atlanta, and I’m sure I’m not alone. The Falcons were one of the worst teams in football before Michael Penix’s return in week three. I didn’t think Penix’s return would change that much because a) it didn’t change that much last year when he was on the field and b) this team appeared to have defensive deficiencies that Penix couldn’t address. I was wrong. Atlanta is actually good and now they are getting points against a Tampa Bay team coming off what is easily its best performance of the season, which means they are probably being overvalued. Now, you may be thinking: “Sam, couldn’t you make the same case about Tampa Bay getting Baker Mayfield back?” You could, but Tampa wasn’t very good in the first few weeks with Mayfield and their defense has been fine all season and they still only had one win entering Sunday. If you’re looking for a key to the game, it will be the Falcons keeping Penix clean in the pocket. Eight of his nine touchdown passes this season have come from a clean pocket.

Photo Courtesy of Armando L. Sanchez/Chicago Tribune

Tier 2: Circe (Season Record: 8-8)

Seahawks -3 over Bears

Jaguars -9.5 over Colts

Arguably, the depiction of Circe in “The Odyssey” can serve as an archetype of sorts for modern fictional depictions of witches. You could also argue that she’s an archetype for a modern feminist. Turning men into pigs is very on-brand and on-the-nose feminism.

Speaking of on-brand, Seattle’s defense reminded us of the primary reason the Seahawks took home the Lombardi Trophy last February on Sunday night. Mike MacDonald’s defense put the best quarterback of this generation and his former running back in a blender. They have another tall task this week against an ascendant Caleb Williams. Here’s the thing. I don’t think Chicago’s running game is as strong as Kansas City’s. Look for Seattle to give up more than the 36 yards they allowed to Walker, but to focus even more on limiting Williams’ ability to take shots down the field or make plays with his legs out of structure. On the other side, Chicago’s defense will struggle to contain JSN.

Indianapolis officially declared their candidacy for the race to the bottom of the standings this week trading away Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner. This is the right move for the Colts as they need to go into hard reset mode, but it also makes them an easy team to fade going forward. Nine-and-a-half is a big spread, but Jacksonville is coming off a bye and after dropping a division game to Houston two weeks ago they will be looking to notch another division win this week. Expect Jacksonville to keep the foot on the gas all four quarters this week.

Photo Courtesy of Al Bello/Getty Images

Tier 3: Wicked Witch of the West (Season Record: 15-10)

Bills -3 over Ravens

Vikings +3.5 over Lions

I’m not an ancient Greek, so the Wicked Witch of the West is my personal archetype of a witch. I’ve never seen or read “Wicked”, but I did watch the original “Wizard of Oz” at age 4 or 5. The flying monkeys scared the shit out of me. Still do if we’re being honest.

Speaking of scary, how about Baltimore having to square off against a rested Josh Allen a week after giving up four touchdown passes to Joe Burrow? Even with Lamar Jackson back, I like Allen to throw over, run through and run around Baltimore’s defense. The over/under is 54.5 in this game…I might bet it anyway.

On the other hand, the Minnesota-Detroit over/under is an astronomical 46.5. I will be betting the under, as I have the last three Minnesota games with success. Minnesota officially gets this season’s Rodney Dangerfield award for the least respected team by the betting markets. They are the last undefeated team, and they are getting three-and-a-half against a Lions team that still can’t defend anyone. Stop me if you’ve heard me say this before, but Brian Flores is the best defensive coordinator in football and has been in his bag all season. He is blitzing almost 70% of the time (the next closest team is less than 50%) and is turning the 100×53.3 dimensions of a football field into a quarterback’s house of horrors. Jared Goff has performed better than he has historically when pressured this season, but he also has faced a decent pass rush yet.

Photo Courtesy of Andrew Stein/Carolina Panthers

Tier 4: The Sanderson Sisters (Season Record: 13-14)

Panthers +3.5 over Packers

Raiders +1.5 over Jets

Chiefs -1.5 over Broncos

Ok, what does Mary Sanderson do? Winifred is obviously the leader of the group. Sarah is the charmer. She lures the children with her songs. She lures that creepy bus driver with her, erm, feminine wiles. What’s Mary’s contribution? Does she make the potions? Cook? Clean? I have no clue.

It’s been a real up-and-down season for the Panthers as a whole. They’ve given up 59 points to the Bears. They’ve held the Michael Penix-less Falcons to 3 points. They lost to the Browns. They torched the Lions on Sunday Night Football. They beat the Eagles (when they still had Jalen Hurts) but got blown out by the Bucs. I don’t know what to make of them except to assume that what we see from them this week will be close to the opposite of what we saw last week. After a strong start to the season, Bryce Young had a no good, very bad day last Sunday. Green Bay’s defense, still sans Micah Parsons, isn’t in the same league as Tampa Bay’s though. Bryce bounces back and Carolina keeps things close.

Las Vegas seems to be in a downward spiral. That’s perfect timing for a game against the Jets! New York stopped Miami’s season-long downward spiral last week. Geno Smith is having a late career renaissance statistically, but Aaron Glenn’s defense is flat-out bad. Glenn is a lame duck, and this will go down as another lost season for the “Gang Green.”

Kansas City is another team looking for a bounce back week after an all-time Sunday night stinker against Seattle. Denver is another tough defense, but the difference is you can run on this Broncos defense. I’ve said this all year. Andy Reid essentially sat Walker down the stretch last week with the game out of reach, and you can bet it’s because he knew he’d need him for this divisional game. Bet K9’s over 84.5 rushing yards. His anytime touchdown odds are -150 (not bad to include in a same game parlay), but I also wouldn’t shy away from sprinkling some on 2+ touchdowns at +450.

Photo Courtesy of Getty Images

Tier 5: Samantha Stephens (Season Record: 11-12-1)

Bengals -10.5 over Titans

Cowboys -6.5 over Cardinals

Browns +3.5 over Steelers

Patriots -7 over Dolphins

Eagles +5.5 over Commanders

I’ve never seen “Bewitched” but the concept of a witch using her supernatural powers to make her everyday life easier and attempt to not be discovered by nosy neighbors seems like a good premise.

I’m not betting on the Titans again this season unless the line gets really stupid. Cincinnati finally clicked last week.

Arizona can’t stop a nosebleed. Dak will throw it all over the yard. Bet the over in this one (also at 54.5 points).

The AFC North is a stupid division. The intradivision games that don’t involve the Bengals are always silly and close. Anything over three points is an autobet on the ‘dog.

Miami got one step further away from the top pick in the draft last week. Time to get back to doing what they do best. Miami has kind of been a haunted house historically for the Pats so don’t get carried away.

Philadelphia’s stock couldn’t be any lower. This is a prime opportunity to buy at the nadir of a team’s value.

Last Week: 6-7-1

Season Record: 50-54-2

Cover Photo Courtesy of Glamour Magazine

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