This is always the worst part of the season from a gambling perspective. There’s enough data to form opinions about teams, but not enough to feel fully confident in them. Then, there are the injury problems. Everyone is banged up. Some people are out for the season. Some are preparing to come back from injury, but in what capacity? It gets exhausting having to wade through these questions every week. That’s part of what this is for though, I’ll wade through the injury quagmire so you don’t necessarily have to.

Tier 1: Healthy (Season Record: 3-9)

Raiders +4.5 over Rams

Packers +3 over Lions

Sometimes we (the sports prognosticator community at large “we”) get something entirely wrong. Levi and I both picked Oregon to win the college football playoff on “The Spread Offense” podcast. We’ve been trying to make Arch Manning happen since he was in middle school. We all thought the Rams were Super Bowl contenders last year and did nothing but upgrade their roster in the offseason, making them Super Bowl favorites. I think it might be time to accept defeat on this take. Matt Stafford is being asked to do too much, although the Rams’ rushing offense has definitely not been a deficit it’s just been underutilized. Davante Adams, the top red zone target, is now out for a significant period of time. Myles Garrett hasn’t played since week one. Kam Curl and Trent McDuffie are banged up. The Rams are still one of the five (eight?) best teams in the NFL, I’m just sure they shouldn’t be laying four-and-a-half on the road against a competent (shocking we’re saying that about the Raiders) NFL team now.

On the flip side, we wrote off the Packers pretty quickly after they picked right back up this season with how things ended last season (poorly in case that wasn’t already known or obvious), but now things are looking up. Jordan Love is airing it out with confidence. Josh Jacobs will bring some much needed juice to the running game. (There’s a legitimate debate as to whether or not Jacobs should be playing but that’s for a different column). I’m failing to see why Detroit should lay a whole three at home against this team. Sure, the Lions are coming off a bye. Brian Branch’s return brings their number of NFL-quality starters in the secondary back to one, but do we really think Love’s recent aerial assault won’t continue against one of the worst secondaries in football?

Tier 2: Probable (Season Record: 8-7)

Chiefs +2.5 over Seahawks

Kansas City and Seattle is the kind of heavyweight fight that stands out on Sunday Night Football, especially with Chris Collinsworth’s giddy fawning over Pat Mahomes. The biggest difference I see between these two teams currently is the Chiefs can run the ball and the Seahawks can’t. Ironically, the biggest reason for that is Seattle letting Kenneth Walker III sign with Kansas City in the offseason instead of just resigning him themselves. Long term, I can understand not locking up substantial sums of money in an aging running back, but in the here and now Jadarian Price is on the injured reserve and Seattle’s ground game has been ineffectual, at best, since. Even if Zach Charbonnet returns from last season’s ACL injury this week, I think Seattle’s single dimensionality (one-dimensionality?) separates these two teams.

Tier 3: Questionable (Season Record: 13-9)

Bears -3 over Patriots

Panthers -3.5 over Bucs

Giants +9.5 over Texans

Caleb Williams is so back! I picked the Falcons last week, like an idiot, on the premise that even if Williams was back, he probably wouldn’t look 100% like himself yet. He did. I was dumb. Drake Maye is a quarterback whose early season swoon was overcome, much to my benefit as I picked the right week to start throwing my lot in with him again against Buffalo and Las Vegas. Even with Maye returning to form, Romeo Doubs is on injured reserve and A.J. Brown is still limited by his opening week ankle injury. Chicago’s defense is bad, but the lack of downfield threats for New England creates opportunities for the Bears to load the box to take away the running game and underneath passing game, like they did against Philadelphia on Monday Night Football a few weeks ago.

Is Bryce Young actually good? The debate is still out, but the fact that we are having the discussion at all is a boon for both Young and the Panthers. Bryce seems well on his way to getting paid. Carolina seems well on their way to repeating as NFC South champions. (There are worse outcomes than being a home ‘dog in a Wild Card round playoff game). Tampa Bay might get Baker Mayfield back this week, but how effective can he be after dislocating his throwing thumb? He hadn’t been that effective before the injury anyway.

I know that Houston, metrically, is one of the best 2-4 teams ever, but we really think they should be laying nine-and-a-half against a non-Titans, non-Dolphins team right now? C.J. Stroud is doing his best to erase the memory of last year’s playoffs. He’s quietly having a resurgent year, but the vaunted Houston defense has been a huge letdown. Demeco Ryans took back the defensive playing calling duties at a convenient time, right before they trounced an incompetent Tennessee team, but the defense still needed Stroud to bail them out in London last week. If he needs to, at least he should have Tank Dell back to add to Nico Collins and newly acquired Marvin Harrison, Jr.

As an aside and a caution against my own recommendation, throwing “Nine” to the wolves against Will Anderson and the rest of Houston’s defense feels like coaching malpractice, even if Houston’s defense has been disappointing. If the Texans cover this, my expectation is it’s on the back of several J.J. McCarthy turnovers (I’ll be betting 2+ interceptions as a hedge) and New York’s inability to keep the chains moving on the ground.

Tier 4: Doubtful (Season Record: 11-13)

Saints +3 over Steelers

Falcons +3.5 over 49ers

Browns -1.5 over Titans

After a week of detoxing myself off the Saints’ betting wagon, I’m back baby! To be clear, I don’t think New Orleans is a good team, but I’m more than skeptical that Pittsburgh is either. Good teams lay three points on the road or in Europe/South America/Australia (games in Miami and Nashville notwithstanding) but decent-to-mediocre teams should not. (Generally speaking, just bet the underdog in all non-North American games and you’ll likely come out ahead). New Orleans is talent-depleted in the back half of their defense, but Brandon Staley is a good enough defensive coordinator (I think? Maybe not?) to scheme around the talent deficit against teams who can be forced into boxes. The key against Pittsburgh is to force Aaron Rodgers to hold the ball for more than two seconds. Do that and he becomes uncomfortable. Take away Jaylen Warren, both as a running threat and a checkdown-turned-explosive-play pass catcher, and Pittsburgh becomes beatable. Tyler Shough can extend plays. Chris Olave has emerged as a true WR1. That gives New Orleans some ammo against a vulnerable Steelers’ secondary.

Atlanta, and I, got blindsided by Caleb Williams being 100% Caleb Williams again last Sunday. Michael Penix also looked less than 100% after looking like a legitimate starter in the several weeks prior. (He was/is dealing with a rib injury). I’m going to trust that with one more week of healing for his ribs, that Penix gets back to being the guy he was in three consecutive primetimes in weeks 3-5, especially against a team crossing three time zones. Kyle Shanahan has already proven that his better than Sean McVay at being a travel agent, however this trip, on a short week, feels like a potential schedule loss. Factor in that they are laying three-and-a-half on top of that and it feels like I’m not confident enough in this pick. I’ll chalk that up to uncertainty over which Penix we’ll see.

Do yourself a favor and don’t watch a second of the Browns and Titans. This will be a disgusting excuse for a football game. If that means not betting on it, then so be it. However, we may not get many more opportunities to bet against Tennessee in near pick ‘em situations.

Tier 5: Injured Reserve (Season Record: 9-9-1)

Ravens -2.5 over Bengals

Jets -4.5 over Dolphins

Colts +6.5 over Vikings

Cardinals +4.5 over Broncos

Cowboys -4.5 over Eagles

The Baltimore-Cincinnati line is the one that prompted this week’s theme. Why is Baltimore laying points? Does that mean Lamar Jackson is playing? Why is it only two-and-a-half? Does that mean he’s not playing or expected to be limited? Here’s the thing: if Lamar Jackson plays and is Lamar Jackson then getting Baltimore at this number is value. If he doesn’t play, I’d probably bet the Bengals’ moneyline. Professional opinion: watch the Lamar Jackson news and act quickly or stay away.

The New York Jets are a tale of two teams. They are competent at home, especially in nasty weather. They are miserable on the road. This week they are at home, and playing one of the few teams who is miserable in any venue or setting.

Minnesota’s offense may be fixed by simply having Kyler Murray and Justin Jefferson healthy at the same time, but I want a little more evidence of it before I bet heavily on it. Meanwhile, Indianapolis’s value is at an all-time low, which means this is a “buy low” opportunity. This is still the “Brian Flores show” on defense, so unders will be bet.

Do you trust Denver to win a game by more than a field goal? Some part of me thinks Sean Payton is really Kirk Ferentz masquerading in Sean Payton’s face (like a Travolta/Cage situation) and the Broncos are committed to having every game, regardless of opponent, come down to a late field goal attempt.

I will likely be fading Philadelphia for the remainder of the season. Dallas doesn’t give me much to feel good about either, though. Dak and company are coming off their worst offensive showing of the season last week. I’m more willing to bet on Dak Prescott bouncing back to the MVP-caliber form from September than Tanner McKee making the Eagles’ offense look professional for the first time this season.

Last Week: 6-8

Season Record: 44-47-1

Cover Photo Courtesy of Nic Antaya/Getty Images