“Guys like us don’t change, Saul. We either stay sharp or we get sloppy, we don’t change.” In this respect, NFL teams are like professional criminals. Even when you think they are eating orange slices to get their vitamins and dating a nice lady who work’s the “unmentionables” counter at Macy’s, they are really just out here robbing us blind with backdoor covers and indefensible clock management. Even when we think they’ve changed, things stay the same. The Cowboys still can’t stop the run. Deshaun Watson still sucks at football…and is somehow an even worse person. Pat Mahomes is still awesome at football. The Chargers are still losers. Brian Flores is still the best defensive coordinator in football. Pittsburgh, even sans Mike Tomlin, still wins games in the most unscripted ways imaginable. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.

Tier 1: Lines I Don’t Understand (Season Record: 0-2)

Saints +8.5 over Ravens

Explain this one to me. New Orleans was getting six-and-a-half points in Detroit last week. They overcome a truly baffling call early. Dig themselves into a massive hole. Dig themselves out to force overtime, then come within a missed two-point conversion of winning in overtime, and now they are somehow laying even more points against a Baltimore team who should’ve changed their name from the “Ravens” to the “Backdoor Men” five years ago? Derrick Henry did look like he will continue to defy father time last week. Jahmyr Gibbs did torch the Saints’ defense. (In fairness, he torches every defense). So, if you’re going to make the argument that Henry runs wild and Baltimore controls time of possession in a runaway sure, but Detroit basically did that last week and still ended up in overtime. All evidence says that a Tyler Shough-led Saints team will be competitive and Baltimore will let them be. Plus, Chris Olave will feast on the man-heavy Lions’ secondary. Bet all the Chris Olave and Tyler Shough overs this week.

Tier 2: Fading Teams That Just Flew Around the World in a Week (Season Record: 2-0)

Dolphins +13.5 over 49ers

Giants +7.5 over Rams

This tier could also have been titled, “lines I don’t understand”. Let’s see if I understand this correctly. The 49ers and the Rams have both flown to Australia and back in the last 14 days. Now, they play again this week. I know the Rams game isn’t until Monday, but they’ve still crossed the international date line twice in the month of September. Are we sure they know what day it is? Plus, they are both favored by more than a touchdown.

San Francisco’s line seems the most defensible. Miami is one of the two worst teams in the NFL, and one of two teams who is already tanking. (Cleveland is the other if it wasn’t obvious). There’s a non-zero chance they’ll go 0-17, but surely they can be kind of competitive against an old, jet-lagged team who has to practice next to a substation that for all we know emits the same energy that turned Bruce Banner into the Hulk, except for instead of making players bigger, stronger and green it shreds knee and ankle ligaments. The 49ers looked great last Thursday, but that’s just another reason to go for the fade this week. San Francisco can win this game relatively comfortably and still not cover.

The New York (Football) Giants looked legitimately scary on Sunday Night. Cam Skattebo and Jaxson Dart are the NFL’s “Bash Brothers”, and last season’s plethora of injuries have not seemed to impact their fearlessness in any way. On the other side of the ball, I do think the Giants’ pass rush can cause Matt Stafford at least a few headaches. Even without the Australia factor, I think this would be a close game. Add the Australia factor, and this becomes one of my favorite bets of the week.

Tier 3: Le Petit Bourgeois (Season Record: 4-1)

Lions +4.5 over Bills

Panthers -2.5 over Falcons

Packers -3.5 over Jets

Broncos -2.5 over Jaguars

Chiefs -6.5 over Colts

Lions and Bills is an absolutely fantastic Thursday night game. Bet the over, grab some popcorn and get ready for an all-engine, no brakes offensive firework show. If any game were going to hit 100 points this season, it would be this one. I expect this to be a back and forth affair, which means it’ll be close.

Carolina let things get away from them on Sunday, but they were in it with the Bears for a long time. Atlanta is a bad team and their defense will struggle to slow down the Panthers’ ground game. Chuba Hubbard is a fantasy must start this week.

New York got their revenge on Robert Saleh last week, but back to being the Jets this week. Brian Flores blitzed the Packers into oblivion late last week, but they moved the ball with ease prior to that. The Jets don’t have the same juice up front, and don’t have a defensive playcaller as sophisticated as Flores.

Denver’s offense looked putrid on Monday night. I expect this Denver-Jacksonville line to move a little more toward Jacksonville before Sunday…seems like a perfect time to zag.

Is Kansas City back? Not really. They did it completely differently than their past modus operandi on Monday night. Kenneth Walker took over the game on the ground to create throwing lanes and opportunities for Mahomes. They can continue to win that way against an Indianapolis team that let Derrick Henry do the same last week.

Tier 4: Four Frisky Favorites (Season Record: 2-2)

Bears -4.5 over Vikings

Texans -2.5 over Bengals

Patriots -4.5 over Steelers

Cowboys -3.5 over Commanders

Chicago looks like a juggernaut offensively. Brian Flores was able to scheme Minnesota’s defense into a dominant close, but before he started bringing heavy pressure on every play Green Bay moved the ball with relative ease. Things won’t be so simple against an elite offensive schemer like Ben Johnson and an escape artist like Caleb Williams. Edge: Chicago.

Houston giving up 36 points to Buffalo did nothing to change my opinion of this defense. I think we’ll see the unit we expect to see on Sunday. Plus, C.J. Stroud looks like he’s learned how to play quarterback again.

New England has some extra rest, having played last Wednesday, and Pittsburgh needed a Superman-play by T.J. Watt to pull away from Atlanta. I like the Pats here.

Maybe I’m stubborn, or just dumb, but I think Dallas bounces back this week. Jayden Daniels wasn’t particularly impressive last week and the Commanders don’t have the same power running game that the Giants do.

Tier 5: The Stay Aways (Season Record: 2-1)

Bucs -8.5 over Browns

Titans +7 over Eagles

Raiders +6.5 over Chargers

Seahawks -4.5 over Cardinals

I picked the Browns last week. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice…you ain’t gonna fool me again.

I’ll probably type the previous sentence about the Titans next week….

The Chargers are officially in the “prove it” corner for me. The Raiders didn’t exactly set the world on fire (and their stadium has a giant torch built in) last week, but I can’t bet the Chargers after last week’s fiasco.

Last week said more to me about Los Angeles than it did about Arizona. Seattle has a long week of rest. Even without Sam Darnold, Seattle’s defense is enough to control this game.

Season Record: 10-6

Cover Photo Courtesy of Warner Bros