Getting things off your chest is supposedly healthy, so let’s open the season with a confession. Football season snuck up on me. Since my last column, prior to the Super Bowl (you’re welcome to anyone who bet “A.J. Barner 1^st touchdown scorer” on my advice), I’ve accepted a new job, moved back to Alabama (with my wife as I’d be remiss not to mention), bought a house and started said new job. Admittedly, during that time course my NFL season prep has taken a back seat. I’m four podcasts and several preview articles behind, but is that going to stop me from giving unsolicited and, potentially, misguided gambling advice? It is not. Here’s to the rat race that is the 2026 season.

Tier 1: Prime Time Picks

Broncos +2.5 over Chiefs

Cowboys -2.5 over Giants

Let’s get this straight. Pat Mahomes is ten months removed from a torn ACL. Travis Kelce is in his domestic phase of life. Kansas City didn’t add a meaningful deep threat, offensive or defensive lineman and traded away both starting cornerbacks. We think this team should be favored against a Denver team that was a Bo Nix injury away from a Super Bowl appearance last year? I know broken ankle vs. torn ACL, but trust me the broken ankle is the quicker recovery from a “Can I get back to do the things I was doing before athletically?” standpoint. Denver’s defense will likely key-in on containing Kenneth Walker and trying to clog up the underneath throwing lanes, which is a drastic departure from how teams used to defend Mahomes but that’s the reality of the 2026 Chiefs.

Call me crazy or just a glutton for punishment, but I’m buying what the Cowboys are selling. We know the offense can be really good. The defense still has some question marks, and if we are talking Super Bowl contention then maybe they haven’t been sufficiently answered, but in terms of beating the Giants those answers seem okay. Jaxson Dart is exciting but inefficient and bound to spend a series in the blue tent. Cam Skattebo is fresh off a gruesome injury, as is Malik Nabers. Wan’Dale Robinson is now a Tennessee Titan, and Odell Beckham is now the elder statesman (emphasis on the “elder”). I’m not sure this is the group to expose Dallas’s defensive deficiencies.

Tier 2: Strength on Strength

Bills -1.5 over Texans

Saints +6.5 over Lions

Since I’m in a confessing mood, I think the televising of the NFL schedule release is one of the least necessary sports programming content, right up there with ESPN deciding that we need to highlight the name of the person talking in the booth and televising radio shows. It didn’t take an hour-long ESPN special to get me excited about Josh Allen, the best quarterback in the world, going to Houston to take on the best defense in football on opening week. From a pure intrigue and season importance standpoint, this is the best AFC game of the weekend. I’m looking at the other sides of the ball as I make the pick though. Houston’s offensive line is still a mess. Outside of Nico Collins, none of the skill players are particularly scary. C.J. Stroud is now beyond the “Benefit-of-the-doubt” stage and firmly entering the “Can we win with this guy?” stage. Buffalo’s defense isn’t an elite unit by any stretch, but the answers to their questions are much less concerning than Houston’s offensive questions.

New Orleans transitioned from one of the worst teams I’d ever seen to one of my favorite week-to-week teams to bet over the course of last season. Most of that can be attributed to Tyler Shough replacing Spencer Rattler at quarterback, but the improvement of the Saints’ defense also played a role. Week one will offer a great true test of whether this defense continued that progress in the offseason. Detroit, coming off a disappointing and snakebitten 2025 campaign, is one of the most terrifying teams against which to defensively gameplan. Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams are capable of scoring from anywhere on the field in myriad ways. Amon-Ra St. Brown is good for two or three backbreaking 3^rd down converting receptions per game, and is equally capable of breaking those catches into 50-yard touchdown strikes. Add a healthy Sam LaPorta to the mix and you have four gamebreakers on the field at once. Detroit’s offensive line is a concern though, and New Orlean’s strength is up front. I think the Saints can get enough pressure on Goff throughout the game to force a few stops, and maybe even a turnover.

Tier 3: Ratatouille

Vikings -1.5 over Packers

Commanders +5.5 over Eagles

Seahawks -3.5 over Patriots

Jets +1.5 over Titans

Ravens -3.5 over Colts

Replacing J.J. McCarthy with Kyler Murray significantly raises the floor of Minnesota’s offense. With Brian Flores still calling the defense, that’s all Minnesota needs to make the NFC North a legitimate four-team race. Green Bay’s defensive holes were papered over by Micah Parson’s game-wrecking abilities until he got hurt last year. He’s still not back and that gives Minnesota the edge here.

I’m not buying a return to the playoffs for Washington this year, but it’s week one, which means that Jayden Daniels is 100% healthy…for now. Philadelphia is undergoing an offensive scheme overhaul and that takes time to reach peak efficacy. This game will be tighter than it seems like it should be.

Super Bowl rematch on a Wednesday night to open the season? Sign me up! Historically, Super Bowl winners have a little bit of a hangover on opening night, but that’s usually not as bad as the hangover for the Super Bowl losers (or from a night of Bourbon Street Hand Grenades).

The Jets may have the worst coaching situation in the NFL, but they at least have an adult in the quarterback room again. That’s more than the Titans can say, and I’m not sure their coaching situation is much better.

Baltimore and Indianapolis are two teams that I don’t really know what to do with this year. I do know that I don’t trust a quarterback coming off a torn Achilles. I know that trust further diminishes when you consider that of his top two wide receivers from before his injury: one is a Pittsburgh Steeler now and the other is coming off an offseason surgery of his own. I know that Lamar Jackson is still an elite quarterback. All of that makes me lean Ravens here.

Tier 4: I’ll Probably Kick Myself for this Later

Bengals -3.5 over Bucs

Panthers +3 over Bears

Cardinals +9.5 over Chargers

Falcons +3.5 over Steelers

Cincinnati disappoints on opening weekend every year without fail. Ask any Bengals fan and they’ll tell you. Tampa Bay is entering this season with the arrow pointing straight down though, and they just did the worst thing they could possibly have done for Baker Mayfield’s mindset…they paid him. We all know a chip-on-his-shoulder Baker is the best Baker, and the Bucs just took that away.

Carolina may have been a playoff team almost by default last year, but they are still a playoff team getting three points at home. Analytically, everything says Chicago is a prime regression candidate. Call me a nerd, but I’m not ignoring the signs.

I’m not laying double digits for anyone on week one of the season. Arizona is going to be bad. Los Angeles might be awesome…or they might be the same old Chargers. Time will tell. For what it’s worth, I’m heavily invested in Justin Herbert from a fantasy standpoint, so I hope the hype of Herbert in a Mike McDaniel offense is real.

Atlanta may have the worst quarterback situation in the league, but they have tantalizing skill players. Pittsburgh may not have the worst quarterback situation, but Aaron Rodgers isn’t the problem solver he once was.

Tier V: Out of Respect for Jayden Daniels

Raiders -3.5 over Dolphins

49ers +3.5 over Rams

Browns +8.5 over Jaguars

Miami is actively trying to bad. Las Vegas doesn’t have to try, but if there’s ever a game where one team wants to win and one team wants to lose then it seems dumb to do anything other than take the team that wants to win right?

I have no idea what to do with a game in Australia, but taking the points feels like the safe play. It also may just be the coward’s play. The Rams are Super Bowl favorites for good reason. I thought they were the best team in the NFL last year, and they addressed all of their weaknesses and improved one of their strengths in the offseason. This pick bears no reflection on how I view the Rams for the 2026 season.

Again, I’m not taking the bait on any of these big spreads in week one. Also, don’t bet on or watch the Browns a single time this season. Your wallet and eyes and mind are more valuable than that.

Cover Photo Courtesy of Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images