The enduring meme from the first season of True Detective is Matthew McConaughey drinking a Lone Star beer and talking about the construct of time being circular. Never has that felt more real. We’re eagerly awaiting a new Harry Potter release. We’re eagerly awaiting a new Avengers movie. Rex Ryan and feet are trending together on the artist formerly known as Twitter, and I’m sitting here writing this on a night shift fresh off what I hope will be the last major exam of my life. I wrote the first of these columns staring out of the window in the NICU at VCU Hospital almost five years ago on a night shift. I’ve tried everything to turn this season around it feels like, maybe going back to the beginning will be the trick. Also, I kind of feel good about this week for the first time in a month.
Tier 1: Rivalry Week (Season Record: 4-12-1)
Giants -1.5 over Commanders
Panthers +2.5 over Saints
49ers -4.5 over Cowboys
Thursday nights almost never go well for me, so you know I have to feel really great about this game to put it in the top tier. Washington moves the ball well. Jayden Daniels, even with his left elbow hanging on by a thread (almost literally), looks as good as he did his rookie season. But, and this is a big “but”, Dan Quinn still coaches the Commanders. His game management deficiencies are not new, but they have been myriad and egregious this season. Can you trust him in any close game? If this game is close, and the line suggests it will be, I have to have the other side of Dan Quinn in any bet.
As much as this is about things returning to the same state as before, sometimes people turn over a new leaf. I’m finally swearing off the Saints and Cowboys. Growth! Carolina has been tantalizing at times this year only to fall apart too, but the Panthers big issue is their defense, especially the run defense. It’s already cost their defensive coordinator his job. Here’s the thing: New Orleans can’t run on anybody. The Saints have let me down all year. Not this time!
San Francisco has been the best team in football this year. Now, coming off a bye week, they get a Dallas team that just isn’t good. The offense has some moments, but they aren’t explosive at all, which seems impossible with a legitimately good quarterback and two of the best deep threat receivers in the league. Dallas’s defense can’t stop a nosebleed and it will almost assuredly also be in the defensive coordinator market again next year, unless they transition to Mike Pettine. Having no defense is a problem going against a San Francisco team getting the best football of his career out of Brock Purdy.
Tier 2: Rivalry Week Continued Plus A Blitzkrieg Bop (Season Record: 10-10)
Patriots +2.5 over Lions
Steelers +3.5 over Bengals
Packers -3 over Vikings
The logic might be flawed, but more often than not it works. AFC North games are just stupid and ridiculous and, usually, close. If you are getting more than three in an AFC North game, I’m almost always going to recommend just taking it. I didn’t heed that advice earlier in the year when the Steelers played the Browns on Thursday night. I immediately regretted it and then got to continue regretting it for three-and-a-half hours. Fool me once and all that.
Speaking of fool me once, the Minnesota Vikings, more specifically Brian Flores, unleashed a barrage on Jordan Love and the Packers in the opening week of the season and turned an early 4th quarter deficit into a blowout win. I have a feeling Love and Matt LaFleur will be ready for something similar this time around. Green Bay has played much better lately with their “Eff it go long” offense that is thriving with Matthew Golden’s emergence and Christian Watson finding a way to stay health (frantically knocking on wood). They may have to find ways to get the ball out of Love’s hands a little quicker this week than they have been, but they have a whole week and a game of film to figure out how to weather Brian Flores’s blitzkrieg defense.
Speaking of blitzkriegs…we get a Munich game this week! New England got blitzed by the Packers last week in what was, to me, the most shocking result of the day. Drake Maye got bit by the turnover bug again. Green Bay punched New England’s defense in the mouth early and then just kept throwing haymakers. We’ve seen New England bounce back from rough weeks already this season. (Note my refrain from making a comment about Mike Vrabel bouncing back from a rough patch). I expect them to do so again against a bad Detroit defense. Conversely, this New England defense will be one of the best Detroit has played this year, and one of the smartest. I expect them to have a plan to force someone other than Jahmyr Gibbs to beat them. I would bet unders on Gibbs’s totals this week (also I didn’t want to ruin the segue but the Packers-Vikings total is 42.5 and you already know what I’m doing).
Tier 3: New Faces and New Places (Season Record: 18-14)
Jaguars -10.5 over Titans
Seahawks -6.5 over Raiders
Jacksonville already had a good defense, but they made it even better this week adding Jessie Bates to the back end and Jordan Davis to the defensive line. I would have laid pretty much any number against the Titans before these trades, but Jacksonville must feel like they have a Super Bowl contender to make moves like this. I’m not sure they’re wrong either. A Super Bowl-caliber team would definitely beat the Titans by double digits…even if it is a division game on the road.
The Fernando Mendoza era is officially underway in Las Vegas! It’s brutal that he’s being thrown into the fire against this Seahawks defense, though. I understand that Las Vegas couldn’t have traded Kirk Cousins any later, but the timing couldn’t have been worse in terms of easing Mendoza into his first start. I’m a documented Fernando Mendoza skeptic, but even I won’t rush to judgment if he doesn’t look fantastic this week. It’s just a tough scenario and that’s why I’m on Seattle.
Tier 4: Underdogs (Season Record: 16-17)
Falcons +3.5 over Chiefs
Browns +4.5 over Texans
Atlanta has fallen back to earth after one hot stretch that included three consecutive primetime games. Meanwhile, Kansas City has bounced back from their back-to-back losses nicely. Maybe Kansas City just lays waste to Atlanta and these are two teams passing each other going in opposite directions, but I can’t help thinking that the decent Atlanta team we saw is still in there. I’m giving Michael Penix a pass for looking terrible in the Typhoon in Tampa. I’ll give the team a pass for playing overseas last week. They get to play at home this week and I think they keep things close.
Have we forgotten how slow the Houston start to this season was? I know they are in desperation mode from here on out and Cleveland isn’t exactly good, but this is a big spread for a team that I’m not sure is good playing outdoors on the road. Cleveland can look awful at times, but their defense is good enough to keep them in games.
Tier 5: The Stayaways (Season Record: 12-20-1)
Rams -9.5 over Cardinals
Chargers +4.5 over Ravens
Dolphins +3.5 over Colts
Jets +7.5 over Bills
I flipped from Cardinals to Rams just now after thinking more about it. The Arizona loss is the low point in the Rams season so far. I have a feeling they will avenge that with style this week. Otherwise, the rest of these teams are terrible and you should avoid betting on them. I do think the Chargers have to win a game at some point this season (right?) and this seems like a possibility against Baltimore’s sinking ship of a season. I’m not betting on the Colts either so that game was an auto-bet the underdog, if anything. I also think this Jets team might just be terrible, but Geno Smith has had some good passing days and if there’s anything you can have a good passing day on it’s Buffalo’s pass defense. Again, this is not a recommendation.
Last Week: 6-9
Season Record: 50-73-2
Cover Photo Courtesy of HBO
