Divulging deep personal confessions seems to be my running opener at this point, so here’s another one. Lucky Charms are not my favorite breakfast cereal. Not top five. Probably not top ten. People don’t thank their lucky Cinnamon Toast Crunch though, and people don’t rub their Honey Nut Cheerios for luck. If I had a bag of Trix to reach into that would be nice, but instead I’m just sitting here conjuring up some Lucky Charms to try to turn two straight losing weeks around.
Tier 1: Hearts (Season Record: 2-6)
Browns +1.5 over Jets
Bears -2.5 over Packers
49ers +3 over Seahawks
Oh look how far we’ve come. I’ve been banging the “bet against Deshaun Watson while you can” drum really since last season, but sometimes it’s time to admit defeat. The Browns might be…decent? Deshaun Watson is still a horrible person, and I truly can’t wait for him to be out of the league and never talk about him again, but it’s undeniable that the Denzel Boston, Quinshon Judkins, KC Concepcion trio around him has elevated the offense. The offensive line has been ok. We knew the defense, even without Myles Garrett, could be good. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be favored, even on the road, against a Jets team that lacks any offensive juice without Breece Hall. Geno Smith was 3/8 in the first half for 18 yards against a Bears defense that is not good. As a team, the Jets only ran 32 offensive plays. Smith finished with 119 passing yards, 58 of which came on the lone touchdown of the day. Tell me again why the Jets are favorites here? Maybe this will be the week that Deshaun Watson turns back into the stinky, rotten pumpkin on the field that he is off the field, but even if he does I’m not sure the Jets can capitalize.
Speaking of the Bears, it’s time that I talk about Ben Johnson more pointedly. He has been largely the talk of the playcalling town in the media dating back to his time in Detroit. I don’t mention him as much as I should but allow me to rectify that now. Every week, I mention that Brian Flores is the best defensive coordinator in the NFL, he is. Ben Johnson is his offensive equal as a playcaller and it’s high time I give him his flowers. Green Bay is a team in free fall and I don’t expect Ben Johnson to allow Chicago to have a letdown against a division rival on the ropes.
Johnson’s main competition for the offensive playcalling championship belt is long-time belt holder Kyle Shanahan. He continues to do mesmerizing things. He’s also getting a career year out of Brock Purdy through a quarter of the season. As always, San Francisco’s injury report is longer than my grocery list, but somehow this team is still playing at top level. Seattle, on the other hand, still kind of looks in Super Bowl hangover land. The running game has cratered with Jadarian Price on the IR. The defense is still awesome, but they let the limp noodle Chargers claw back into the game last week. Last year, this Seattle team went for the kill. Once they got you down they kept pedal to the medal. They need Apollo Creed to come give them a pep talk, but until then I don’t want to lay a full three points against the team that has performed the best in the NFL through four weeks.
Tier 2: Clovers (Season Record: 5-6)
Patriots -3.5 over Raiders
Eagles +7.5 over Jaguars
Bills +3 over Rams
Thanks to Drake Maye for not letting me look like a complete idiot last week! I was high on the Pats getting, what I thought were, a ton of points last week and Drake Maye had a return to form. Can he sustain it? I believe so. His issues seemed more between the ears than anything, so I think getting a big road win against a red hot division rival in a game where he played mostly exceptionally gives me confidence. The Bills defense isn’t a special unit, but going blow for blow with Josh Allen is huge. Las Vegas has been one of the surprise teams and Ashton Jeanty is in full-on breakout mode, but New England comes into this game with a chip on their shoulder after last season’s inexplicable opening week loss.
I’ll be the first to tell anyone who will listen that the Jaguars are good, maybe even Super Bowl contenders. Dating back to last year, they have won 11 of their last 12 regular season games. They also get to play a broken Eagles team at their home away from home, London, this week. But, maybe we should take at least half-a-chill-pill here. Seven and a half points? That’s a ton of points against a Philly team that did take a double-digit lead over the Rams into the 4th quarter last week. I know they blew said lead, but they still got it in the first place. Jalen Hurts looked better running this offense last week than he did on Monday Night Football against the Bears two weeks ago. The Saquon Barkley injury hurts and Lane Johnson’s abrupt retirement (shame on Stephen A. Smith by the way) is a blow to the offensive line, but the Eagles still have a good enough defense to keep this a one-possession game.
Speaking of last week’s Eagles-Rams game, I’m so curious what the lines for these two games would have been had Los Angeles not come from behind to win. I’m guessing Los Angeles wouldn’t be laying three whole points against a Josh Allen who seems hellbent on dragging this defense to a Super Bowl this year. Likewise, if (googles first name) Efton Chism III doesn’t haul in an insane one-handed grab and Buffalo holds on against New England, would they come into this week as road favorites even? Pick ‘em at least? I think we are getting value here based on the finals scores of two games that were complete toss ups. I’m betting Buffalo and feeling decent about it.
Tier 3: Tasty Red Balloons (Season Record: 8-7)
Saints +1.5 over Vikings
Broncos -3.5 over Chargers
Giants +3.5 over Commanders
The Saints and Broncos are apparently the two teams that I just can’t quit this year. I’m still stunned that New Orleans got blown out in the Katrina anniversary game. Proof that we aren’t in a sports movie alternate reality, I guess. (Here’s my obligatory reminder that Brian Flores is the best defensive playcaller in football). Minnesota beat the lowly Dolphins without scoring one touchdown last week. Fortunately for the Vikings, their defense and special teams were so good that it didn’t matter but this offense isn’t good. I don’t think they can pull away from teams, and if the “Shough it” Saints have proven it’s that if you don’t put games away early then they are going to make you sweat. I don’t think Minnesota’s offense is capable of putting away games early. Also, we should be betting the under on every Minnesota game for the rest of the season. Bad offense + good defense = safe under bets. I won’t promise you it will hit every week, but I’d be more than willing to bet (pun intended) that we’ll come out ahead at season’s end.
Denver, on the other hand, is coming off a tough beat against the 49ers which saw them lose their two best Pats (Surtain and Bryant) to injury. Both guys are, fortunately, expected to return later this season but will miss this game. However, I’ll be continuing to fade the Chargers as often as possible. Last week was the first time I bet them, and I was lucky they managed a push. I won’t be making that mistake again unless something about this weird Harbaugh-McDaniel-Herbert love triangle inspires significantly more confidence. Somehow, they can’t run or pass the ball. Oh, and the defense has cratered without Jesse Minter calling plays. Fade the stinky Chargers.
Jaxson Dart’s injury seemed like it was going to be a season killer, but the Giants have rallied around Jameis Winston. They have beaten two of the five (?) worst teams in the league in that span, sure, but that’s better than losing to those teams. One thing the Giants still seem capable of is running the ball. One thing the Commanders don’t seem capable of is stopping the run. Jayden Daniels’ return may spark Washington’s offense, but unless they jump out to a huge lead early and force Jameis to drop back 50 times, I think New York has enough success on the ground to keep things close.
Tier 4: Horseshoes (Season Record: 8-9)
Steelers -2.5 over Colts
Cardinals +5.5 over Lions
Ravens +3.5 over Falcons
It would seem like I should be contractually obligated to pick the Colts in a tier titled, “Horseshoes.” Fortunately, I’m a free-lance writer, so I can do what I want. I know Indianapolis ended up blowing out Washington in London last week, but a) they are coming back from London and b) that was only after Marcus Mariota left with injury and Athan Kaliakmanis was thrust into action. Pittsburgh is not coming back from London. In fact, they have a long week of prep after playing on Thursday last week. I think the Steelers bounce back at home here.
Detroit’s defense is virtually unbettable at this point. Not to take anything away from Bryce Young, who seems to be earning a big pay day, but it seems like anyone could move the ball on this Lions team, particularly through the air. Marvin Harrison Jr. answered his wellness check last week after most fantasy owners had already left him for dead on the waiver wire. Trey McBride is not to be messed with, even if you’re an NFL official. Michael Wilson has quietly been the best wide receiver on this team for two years. Arizona hangs around in this one.
I’m assuming that the Falcons-Ravens line is a) based Lamar Jackson not playing and b) a reaction to the Falcons offense looking like the “Greatest Show on Turf” reincarnated in back-to-back primetime games. Michael Penix might be the anti-Kirk Cousins, which in fairness, is exactly what Atlanta hoped he would be. Maybe Atlanta is just a juggernaut now and ready to rip through the rest of the league like Waffle House through a hungover gastrointestinal tract, but I’m going to pump the brakes just a minute. Baltimore may be the kings of leaving the back door open, but when they don’t have a back door to leave open they are usually pretty safe bets. With or without Jackson, I like this to be a pretty close game.
Tier 5: Stars (Season Record: 6-6-1)
Cowboys -8.5 over Bucs
Texans -7.5 over Titans
These are mostly bets against the Bucs and Titans. Houston’s season is on the line and they are playing the worst team in football. If Demeco Ryans is the coach we think he is, then he’s got to smell blood here. Meanwhile, Dallas showed how good it’s offense can truly be last week. Tampa Bay can’t keep up with that with this version of their offense, but this is where I feel obligated to remind all of you that I’m 1-9 in night games this season.
Last Week: 6-9-1
Season Record: 29-34-1
Cover Photo Courtesy of the Lucky Charms Website
