Chuck Klosterman is my favorite contemporary author. I’ve never met him, but I think we have a decent amount in common. He loves football and basketball. Same. He seems pretty politically agnostic. Same. Rock ‘n Roll is his favorite musical genre. Same. I’ve read several of his books and listened to him on several podcasts and thought, “This guy is more eloquently articulating pretty much exactly how I feel about that.” So, when Chuck rights a historical fiction work on the premise of The Velvet Underground and Nico blowing up, instead of initially flopping, and Lou Reed becoming more famous than John Lennon, I have to read it. First, I have to listen to the album.
Lou Reed and I have very little in common. We’re both from the United States, albeit from very different American backgrounds. He was a curmudgeon. I think I’m a pretty nice guy. He was very open about his lengthy substance abuse history. I rarely take Tylenol or Motrin. He also might have been a genius. No one has ever, nor will ever, accuse me of that. All of that to say, I find it hard to relate to The Velvet Underground and Nico in many ways. Musically it’s not my typical preference, but I do recognize some things I like. Lyrically, again, it doesn’t speak to things that I particularly relate to, and I’m grateful for that. Am I glad I did this? Yes. Will I enjoy the book more than the album? Probably. Is this all a stunt to distract you from my stinky record last week, including another 0-3 in night games? Definitely.
Tier 1: Heroin (Season Record: 1-4)
Saints -2.5 over Falcons
Patriots +6.5 over Bills
Broncos +2.5 over 49ers
Let’s get something out of the way up front: I’ve never done heroin. The closest I’ve ever come is getting morphine post-appendectomy. I can’t relate to a song about doing it, however I’d imagine the song “Heroin” mimics it well. It’s a roller coaster of tempos that finishes with a grinding, wailing devolution of guitar sounds. This is easily the best song on the album…even if you don’t love the subject matter.
The New Orleans Saints might be my gambling heroin this season and truly dating back to last season. I can’t quit them. Every week, it seems like the market and betting public has devalued them. I know they blew it last week against the Raiders but a) the Raiders might be decent and b) there’s no way the Saints are losing the Katrina anniversary game. Atlanta torched a Green Bay team last week that might truly be bad. I don’t think they have the same luck this week.
Drake May had a no good, very bad Sunday in Jacksonville. Now we’re comparing him to Mac Jones and asking if he’s a flash in the pan? Come on now, this looks like the obvious overreaction of the season so far. Buffalo looks like a legitimate Super Bowl contender. I do think they are the best team in this division, but I don’t think they are a touchdown better than the Pats. New England’s defense does enough to keep them in this and Maye displays better ball security on Sunday.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before. The San Francisco 49ers are coming into this game with significant injury problems. Rookie standout De’Zhaun Stribling was already hurt. Demarcus Robinson is out. Mike Evans is questionable. Romello Height and Nick Bosa are also out. And the 49ers are favored over a Broncos team that just scored 30 in the second half for a comeback win over the Rams? This line makes no sense to me and is my favorite bet of the weekend. I don’t know what wide receiver is going to create separation against a brutal Broncos pass defense. I still think Denver can be run on, but with no receivers they can load the box. Bo Nix hasn’t been great to start the year, but a neutered San Fran defense will struggle to make life difficult for him.
Tier 2: European Son (Season Record: 3-4)
Steelers -2.5 over Browns
Jaguars +2.5 over Bengals
Rams -3 over Eagles
Lions -3.5 over Panthers
Sonically, “European Son” is the most upbeat of the songs on the album. It gives off some “Stuck in the Middle with You” vibes. It’s possible that I just feel happy because the album is over, but I do think the song is legitimately good too.
We’re still hammer betting against Deshaun Watson right? I know that’s two wins in a row and the one loss was to a team who might be good, more on them soon. I also know my rationale for betting a cool Steelers team over a seemingly red-hot Bengals team last week was “the AFC North is a stupid division.” But, we’re pot-committed. We’re gonna hammer bet against the Browns until we win, we run out of money or Watson finally retires into the obscurity he deserves.
It’s time for us to just accept that Jacksonville is a good football team. Trevor Lawrence is morphing into being “Good Trevor Lawrence” significantly more than he’s “Dumb Trevor Lawrence.” They run the ball well. Parker Washington is emerging as a star wide receiver, and Jakobi Meyers and Lawrence have some kind of ESP thing going on. The defense doesn’t seem to be great at anything, but they aren’t bad at anything either. Basically, Jacksonville is a fulfilled version of what Cincinnati wants to be, just with less name-brand star power at receiver.
Los Angeles will bounce back this week. That was a bad collapse, but Denver is a solid team. Meanwhile, Philly looks lost in the wilderness. They are officially going into “prove it” territory. The running game is abysmal, even with Saquon Barkley and an allegedly elite offensive line. The passing game clearly misses A.J. Brown as the “take the ball deep, take the top off the defense (™Randy Moss)” guy. The defense might still be ok, but not scoring won’t be an option to keep up with an explosive Rams offense, that will be even more explosive if Puka Nacua returns and is healthy this week.
Detroit is basically the Chicago Bears with a worse offensive scheme, but better skill players, and a slightly (very slightly in fact) better defense. We saw what Chicago did to Carolina’s defense in Week 1. I expect more of the same from Detroit. The Lions have made a bad habit of letting teams they are better than get back into games this season, but this line is low enough that I’m not overly worried about a Bryce Young Backdoor Cover here.
Tier 3: I’m Waiting For The Man (Season Record: 7-6)
Jets +3.5 over Bears
Giants +2.5 over Cardinals
“I’m Waiting For The Man” is a fun song. The driving, repetitive beat reminds me of a Jerry Lee Lewis piano beat adapted to a traditional guitar rock song.
The Velvet Underground was a New York band, so we kind of have to bet both New York teams this week right? There are better reasons than just that though. The Jets look like a competitive team for the first time in years. I’m not saying they are good, but they can actually compete at the NFL level. Chicago will be without Caleb Williams again. Case Keenum’s Monday Night Football performance was inspiring, but that game said more to me about the Eagles than the Bears. Chicago’s defense isn’t very good and, even without Breece Hall, the Jets can move the ball well enough to keep things close. I like the over in this. I also love Garrett Wilson or Kenyon Sadiq anytime touchdown bets with Breece Hall out.
Jameis Winston showed that he can do enough to beat some bad NFL teams last week. More accurately, the Giants defense showed that, even without Brian Burns, they can put the clamps down on a bad quarterback. Arizona is better than Tennessee, but they still aren’t good. New York’s pass rush can make life difficult for Jacoby Brissett.
Tier 4: Run Run Run (Season Record: 6-7)
Colts -3.5 over Commanders
Bucs +3.5 over Packers
Vikings -10.5 over Dolphins
Chiefs -4.5 over Raiders
If I thought “I’m Waiting For The Man” was rockabilly adjacent, whew, I clearly hadn’t heard “Run Run Run” yet. If the Velvet Underground were from New Orleans instead of New York, this song would be categorized as rockabilly in a heartbeat.
Jayden Daniels’ status for Sunday is up in the air, but I’ll go out on a limb and say he’s not playing. Even if he does, I’m not sure how the Commanders are going to stop Jonathan Taylor. Washington’s biggest deficit is they are a sieve against the run. Jonathan Taylor is one of the last true bell cow backs. Bet all the Jonathan Taylor overs. Bet Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown. Bet Jonathan Taylor 2+ touchdowns. Marcus Mariota performed admirably against a great Seattle defense on Sunday. If he does that again, this pick will look stupid, but I think Indianapolis can control time of possession and , in so doing, control the game.
Baker Mayfield is out. Tampa Bay looks like a mess. I’m not sure how the Bucs are going to get first downs, let alone score points, so I’m a little nervous about this pick but… Should Green Bay be a road favorite over anyone at this point? All evidence suggests they can’t move the ball consistently either. Jayden Reed is done for the year. The Packers running game is even more anemic than the Bucs. Maybe this will be the game where Jordan Love ascends from “analytics darling” to “superhero”, but I’m not going to bet on that happening.
Brian Flores probably still harbors plenty of resentment towards the Miami Dolphins. He is the best defensive coordinator in football and has been putting teams in a blender all year. I expect him to do the same with a Devon Achane-less Dolphins offense. I don’t trust Minnesota’s offense, but 14 points might be enough to cover this spread. Minnesota’s defense also might score 14 points on their own.
Pat Mahomes looks a little better each week. Usually, Las Vegas is getting a ton of points and is an afterthought, even as a divisional opponent, on Kansas City’s schedule. Now they are 3-0 and have KC’s full attention. Las Vegas’s offense looks better than I would have imagined coming into the season, but I still don’t trust their back seven defensively. I think Mahomes airs it out more than we’ve come to expect in recent years and the Chiefs cover.
Tier 5: Sunday Morning (Season Record: 6-4)
Ravens -11.5 over Titans
Texans -2.5 over Cowboys
Chargers +7 over Seahawks
“Sunday Morning” really eases you into the album. It’s like “oh this is nice, simplistic, straightforward.” Nico’s ethereal voice gives it an almost charming feel. After you lull into a daze, the rest of the album really just punches you in the mouth.
I forgot how much Baltimore loves letting teams in through the back door last week. Actually, I didn’t forget it. I just ignored it. That was dumb. You know what they say about stupid though. Stupid is as stupid does, and I’m betting the Ravens again this week. That’s marginally less dumb than betting the Titans three weeks in a row…
Speaking of stupid, is it shear stupid that I can’t give up on Houston? I know they can’t run the ball, which is Dallas’s main Achilles heel. I also know that the defense has not been the unit we have come to expect, but some part of me just thinks this is the week the defense figures it all out. Maybe that’s stupid.
Doubly speaking of stupid, maybe I should just chalk the Chargers up as a lost cause at this point, but this feels like a value play. Seattle has kind of looked like a Super Bowl hangover team all year. Los Angeles has looked miserable but maybe they can keep things close, like they mostly did against Buffalo, and then not fall apart late. Side note: Jim Harbaugh’s late game decision-making against Buffalo was truly head-scratching. First, you go for it on 4th and 10 on your side of the 50, don’t get it, give up a score, then drive down and kick a field goal on like 4th and 3 in plus territory to cut it to eight. Truly mind-numbing stuff from Jimbo there. Of course, after last week’s atrocity, who am I to call anyone’s football decisions mind-numbing?
Also, I can’t fully recommend “Rock*” yet, but I have loved every Chuck Klosterman book I’ve ever read. Go read any and all of them.
Last Week: 5-11
Season Record: 23-25
Cover Photo Courtesy of The Andy Warhol Foundation for the Visual Arts
