You know how some people just don’t have it when it matters? Greg Norman. The ‘90s Bills (not Bulls). Chris Webber. Ralph Nader. There’s a long list of names synonymous with “shrinking when it matters most.” The thing about that, though, is that you have to be good enough when the lights aren’t their brightest for this to be a deviation from the norm, so I guess there’s worse company to be in, but with my 1-6 record in night games I’m well on my way to “good regular season, playoff choke” status. As an homage, this week’s tiers are dedicated to the NFL quarterbacks who equally shrink when all eyes are watching, with Kirk Cousins (the patron saint of “Prime Time Shrinkage”) gracing our cover photo for the week.

Tier 1: Daniel Jones (Season Record: 1-2)

Ravens -3.5 over Cowboys

Rams -2.5 over Broncos

Would you be surprised to hear that Danny Dimes turns into Danny Pennies in night games? Would you be surprised to hear that his 1-16 record (0.059 winning percentage) is the worst all-time among quarterbacks with at least 10 NFL starts in night games?

I’m giving you whiplash by pivoting from betting against the Ravens as my best bet last week to betting on them as my best bet this week. I’m also violating one of my cardinal rules: never put a game played outside of North America as a best bet. But, hear me out on this one. Derrick Henry continues to defy time. Lamar Jackson looks healthy and willing to run. The Cowboys, after an offseason of insistence that the defense had been fixed, continue to be a sieve when it comes to stopping the run. I think Dallas’s offense can score a few times to keep this competitive, but ultimately the Ravens will be able to move the ball too easily on the ground for Dallas to generate enough stops.

After two weeks of betting on and watching the Denver Broncos closely, I’m not convinced they belong in the tier with the Super Bowl contenders. Bo Nix continues to be one of the most head-scratching quarterbacks in the NFL. Denver’s running game isn’t consistent enough to provide him with much help. The vaunted Broncos’ defense looks like they can be run on. I still think that their pass defense holds up as one of the best in the game but look for Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to have solid performances on Sunday night. I’d bet both of their overs and on a Kyren Williams touchdown, in addition to betting the Rams. Even if Puka Nacua misses another game, I think Los Angeles’ ability to stay ahead of the chains will create opportunities for Matt Stafford in the playaction game.

Tier 2: Geno Smith (Season Record: 2-2)

Jaguars -2.5 over Patriots

Bucs +1.5 over Vikings

Saints -3 over Raiders

Given that of the five NFL franchises Geno Smith has played for, two of them are the quarterback graveyards known as the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets, it probably isn’t all that surprising that Geno has the second-worst all-time winning percentage in night games. Also, am I the only person that completely forgot that Geno spent a year as a backup with the Chargers before landing in Seattle?

Jacksonville let the Broncos come back and beat them on Sunday afternoon, but in a weird way I came out of that game feeling better about the Jaguars than I did Denver. If you ignore the late-game collapse, famous last words right (?), Jacksonville moved the ball relatively easily against one of the NFL’s best defenses. Trevor Lawrence mostly looked like the good Trevor Lawrence. New England’s defense stylistically reminds me of Denver, but they aren’t as good. Jacksonville should have similar success moving the ball against the Pats, and maybe with the game at home they can avoid the late game fiasco.

Kyler Murray is returning this week for the Vikings, but do we really expect him to get the full Kyler scrambling experience just two weeks after a vicious concussion? For his sake, I hope not. And, if he’s relegated to predominantly a pocket passer role, then I’m not sure he presents much of an upgrade over Carson Wentz. It’s also going to be hot and humid and gross in Tampa Bay on Sunday afternoon. Vikings are Scandinavian people. They don’t do tropical.

New Orleans has rewarded me all season. No reason to make a change now. The Raiders are off to a good start after beating the intentionally-losing Dolphins and then embarrassing the unintentionally-miserable Chargers, but that doesn’t make the Raiders good. Ashton Jeanty looks like he’s having a breakout campaign and the veteran additions to the Vegas’ defense have made it a more competent unit, but the receiving corps, sans Brock Bowers, is still one of the worst in the league and Kirk Cousins, even in day games, isn’t an elevator at this point in his career.

Tier 3: Andy Dalton (Season Record: 6-4)

Packers -5.5 over Falcons

Panthers -2.5 over Browns

Lions -6.5 over Jets

The Red Rifle doesn’t come with a night-vision scope apparently.

Green Bay hasn’t been particularly inspiring over the first two weeks of the season. They blew a lead to Carson Wentz after Brian Flores realized that he could just all-out blitz Jordan Love on every play. Then, they let the Jets take them to overtime. That said, Atlanta might be the worst team in the NFL that isn’t actively trying to lose. Michael Penix is making his season debut for Atlanta, so maybe things will be better offensively, but I certainly wouldn’t bet on that. The losses of James Pearce and Jalon Walker have also completely neutered the Falcons’ pass rush, which should give Christian Watson and Matthew Golden opportunities to get open and feast.

I know Cleveland won last week, but I still don’t think that’s their overall goal. Don’t let these opportunities to bet against Deshaun Watson pass you by. Carolina is also a deeply flawed football team, but they are at least semi-competent on both sides of the ball. I also think they can run the ball, which is the best way to attack the Browns’ defense anyway.

The number of touches Detroit seems intent on giving Jahmyr Gibbs this season is genuinely alarming. As his owner in two fantasy leagues, it has been a boon for me so far, but I’m worried about his long-term health.

Now that that’s off my chest, I expect Detroit’s offense, with a long week of rest/practice, to run the Jets’ defense off the field on Sunday. This should be the game where Gibbs gets an early rest and we get to see Sione Vaki and Jacob Saylors get some touches. The Jets do seem more competent offensively than last season, which is like saying Deshaun Watson is a better quarterback than person, so the backdoor could be open here if this line get’s to 7+, but if it stays under 6.5 we’re good.

Tier 4: Jeff George (Season Record: 4-4)

Texans -2.5 over Colts

Steelers +3.5 over Bengals

Seahawks -6.5 over Commanders

Cardinals +8.5 over 49ers

Eagles -4.5 over Bears

For those who don’t remember, Jeff George was basically the precursor to Jameis Winston, just without the Heisman (and arrest record) in college. He was kind of a journeyman who led the NFL in passing one year and was apparently a great teammate. Randy Moss said he was his favorite quarterback because they were fishing buddies. He apparently was not very good in night games…maybe because he spent all day on the water with Randy #straightbasshomie.

Houston laid an egg last week and brought all the fears people had about them coming into the season back to the forefront. C.J. Stroud looked incapable of consistently pushing the ball down the field without Nico Collins available to be an “eff it, he’s down there somewhere” option. The offensive line and running game did not look like they’ve improved. Perhaps more concerning, for the second week in a row, the vaunted Houston defense got picked apart by a surgical passing game. The good news for the Texans is that “surgically repaired” is a more apt description of Indianapolis’s passing game than “surgical.” Houston has the luxury of loading the box to stop Jonathan Taylor and daring Danny Dimes to beat them. If this were a night game, this would be a Tier 1 bet.

Cincinnati looked like the Cincinnati team that gets picked to win the AFC North every year last week. Pittsburgh looked like a 7-10 team. So, why am I on the Steelers this week? This is the AFC North and trends never keep in this league. There are only a few constants: Pittsburgh will finish above .500, Cleveland will suffer from crippling quarterback play, and the division winner will have a disappointing playoff exit in the divisional round.

I will confess that I stared at the Seattle-Washington line for several minutes trying to rationalize why the Commanders should cover this line. It’s a home game. And…..that’s all I could come up with. Marcus Mariota is a competent backup, but he’s not ready to go up against the reigning Super Bowl champion defense with a saloon door for an offensive line. That’s an unfair ask. Washington also doesn’t have the chops defensively to keep Seattle at bay even if it’s another week of Drew Lock.

Arizona fell back to earth last week, but I still think they can be more competitive than we anticipated coming into the season. San Francisco beat a lame duck Miami team badly last week, but that is still just papering over some glaring issues that this team has. The roster is old and brittle. The offensive line, outside of Trent Williams, leaves something to be desired. The defense is overly reliant on one great pass rusher and one great linebacker, both of whom are less than 12 months removed from major injuries. This could be a week where we see some of those cracks exposed, even if the Niners win relatively comfortably.

Honestly, I have no idea what to make of the Eagles. They still seem kinda broken offensively. The defense seems lesser than the sum of its parts. But, I’m not going to suffer through betting on Tyson Bagent. I fully expect Philly to trudge to a 10-0 lead and then watch Chicago’s offense stall on drive after drive knowing they’ll never get themselves back in the game. If I lose to Tyson Bagent so be it, but at least I won’t spend three hours of my Monday night feeling hopelessly dumb. I’ve done that the last two Monday nights.

Tier 5: Ken Anderson (Season Record: 5-2)

Chargers +7.5 over Bills

Chiefs -10.5 over Dolphins

Titans +2.5 over Giants

Ken Anderson spent his entire 15-season NFL career with the Bengals in the ‘70s and ‘80s. That should tell you everything you need to know about his winning percentage in night games (0.231 in case you were curious.)

The Chargers have looked awful to start the season. Mike McDaniel hasn’t unlocked Justin Herbert. In fact, it looks like he has locked him into a regression spiral. The running game stinks. The defense looks mediocre. Meanwhile, the Bills look like the Super Bowl contender we all desperately want them to be. Plus, the game is in Buffalo, which means the Chargers are crossing three time zones to play a game at 9:00 A.M. PST. These were all my thoughts as I hastily wrote “Buffalo -7.5” in pen…but then I got to thinking. This is the lowest the Chargers will ever be valued. I don’t know that this is the highest Buffalo will be valued, but it’s probably close. This feels like a value play. I’m not saying sprinkle a lot of money on this, but I am saying don’t be on the wrong side of a Justin Herbert garbage-time bomb followed by a cutaway to Madison Beer happily clapping in the suite. This game has 28-21 written all over it.

I will not be betting the Dolphins again this year until the lines get so dumb that I have to.

Vibes couldn’t be worse in New York right now. Jaxson Dart, after a whole offseason of talk about how to keep him healthy and upright, is lost for the season after a game and three plays. Jameis Winston is a competent backup, but I’m not sure he should be favored against a team with their starting quarterback and a decent defense. Right? Right???

Last Week: 8-8

Season Record: 18-14

Cover Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn