We’re almost there. We are three important games and thirteen meaningless games away from the NFL playoffs. Also, I can finally pop a bottle of bubbly for my first winning streak of the season, sorry it took so long. Here’s to more winning streaks in 2026 and pouring one out for the regular season.

Tier 1: Vieux Carre (Season Record: 12-19)

Panthers +3 over Bucs

Seahawks -1.5 over 49ers

The Vieux Carre isn’t as well-known among the New Orleans-invented-libations as the Sazerac or the Hurricane, but it is the best. This complex tipple is a delight with every sip. There’s a reason I’ve given it the billing as my all-time favorite cocktail.

Tampa Bay has been in free fall for the better part of two months thanks to a rash of injuries…and maybe an internal revolt against Todd Bowles. It seems fitting that Carolina would put the Bucs out of their misery on Saturday. Speaking of misery, I know Bryce Young had a rough go of it against Seattle last week, but this Tampa Bay defense isn’t the same beast. Again, this is a shameless hedge against my preseason “Bucs to make the playoffs” bet.

I opened the season with “Seahawks over 49ers” as one of my best bets. Things really do come full circle. San Francisco beat Seattle in the season opener, and since both teams have proven themselves playoff contenders. The biggest difference is Seattle is virtually the same team it was seventeen weeks ago. San Francisco, meanwhile, is patching this thing together with duct tape, super glue and Christian McCaffrey being Hercules. Seattle winning this game and securing the top seed in the NFC feels like the right outcome.

Tier 2: The Vesper (Season Record: 22-20)

Steelers +3.5 over Ravens

Everyone needs a martini preference. Much like James Bond, although probably the only thing we have in common, mine is the Vesper. Cocchi Americano has replaced Kina Lillet, given that the latter is no longer in production, as the vermouth component, but otherwise the gin and vodka together with the fresh lemon twist gives the martini and adjective you rarely hear associated with it: refreshing.

I know this is my second-tier game, but I don’t feel remotely confident in this. If one wanted to avoid gambling on Sunday altogether, I wouldn’t blame you. In fact, I may join you. There are two reasons I think Pittsburgh is the bet here though. First, I’m invoking the “you’re never as bad or good as you looked last week” principle. Baltimore put together its first complete game of the season last week and routed Green Bay last Saturday night, but it would seem like folly to bet on it two games in a row. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh crapped the bed against an awful Cleveland Browns team with a chance to clinch the division. The Steelers doing that two weeks in a row does seem distinctly possible, however, and this brings me to my second point, Mike Tomlin won’t let this happen. This is what Mike Tomlin lives for. If the standard, as he likes to say, is 9-8 and an AFC North title, then Tomlin will find a way to accomplish it in the most absurd way possible.

Tier 3: Paper Plane (Season Record: 26-37)

Saints +3 over Falcons

Bears -3 over Lions

Eagles -3.5 over Commanders

A Paper Plane is essentially an elevated whiskey sour. You get the sweetness of the bourbon with the bitter and herbaceous elements of Amaro Nonino and Aperol, and then you get the fresh and tart citrus burst of the lemon juice. This is a great go-to cocktail. It’s as good as a pre-dinner front porch cocktail as it is an after-dinner meal capper.

Atlanta has a chance to clench the NFC South for Carolina if they were to win Sunday, regardless of the outcome of Panthers-Bucs the day before. I’m unsure if the Falcons care about that, or if they do which of the two teams they like the least. Same with the Saints, who could try to win and help the Bucs cause or throw the game to boost Carolina. Mind games aside, New Orleans is a team on the up-and-up and they need more positive reps for Tyler Shough heading into next season, which will presumptively be his first as a full-time starter. That makes me lean Saints here, because the Falcons have nothing to gain or prove in this game. They did that last week.

Detroit and Washington are just trying to get out of this week without any more injuries. I know these lines are low because neither Chicago nor Philadelphia need this game. There’s a high chance the starters sit or play very limited reps, but that still might be enough to cover against depleted Lions’ and Commanders’ rosters.

Tier 4: Daiquiri (Season Record: 31-29-1)

Cowboys -3.5 over Giants

Titans +12.5 over Jaguars

Chargers +11.5 over Broncos

Dolphins +10.5 over Patriots

Like a martini preference, everyone needs a go-to “beach” drink. For many that’s a margarita, but I prefer a daiquiri, and no I don’t mean that red slushy bullshit. A real daiquiri: lime, sugar, rum. That’s all you need. It’s refreshing. Hemingway drank it, although he liked his with grapefruit juice too according to legend. Margarita’s are fine, but a well-made daiquiri helps you find your beach in ways a Corona with lime could only dream of.

Jaxson Dart won one more game and had an encouraging showing against the hapless Raiders. That was probably enough for this season. The Giants just need to avoid another Dart concussion at all costs.

On the other hand, Cam Ward is trying to build some momentum heading into next season. Being competitive against a playoff team in the last week of the season seems like a decent way to do that.

The Chargers have no incentive to win this game, hence this line being eight-and-a-half points too high. However, Jim Harbaugh is an over-competitive psychopath, and Denver finds ways to play down to most opponents.

Much like Cam Ward, Miami also needs to build some momentum heading into 2026. New England could use this game, but they need to be fresh and healthy for the playoffs more.

Tier 5: Old Fashioned (Season Record: 31-25-2)

Browns +7.5 over Bengals

Packers +7.5 over Vikings

Colts +10.5 over Texans

Chiefs -5.5 over Raiders

Cardinals +7.5 over Rams

Bills -7.5 over Jets

There’s an important distinction when it comes to the cocktail we call an Old-Fashioned. To muddle fruit or not to muddle fruit? Whiskey, simple syrup or sugar and bitters is how I’ve always made mine, but you could argue that this drink is technically a “whiskey cocktail”, which is the, pardon the pun, old fashioned nomenclature for ordering drinks. You could reasonably argue that if you want to differentiate an “old fashioned” from a “whiskey cocktail” you need the sugar muddled into a cherry, an orange slice, or both. I say to all of that: who cares? It’s your drink, make it how you want to. Personally, I’m a “don’t muddle the fruit” guy.

That debate is more interesting than anything I could offer up about these six meaningless, don’t watch don’t bet games. I’ll see you in the playoffs. Thanks for sticking through the regular season with me.

Last Week’s Record: 8-7-1

Season Record: 122-131-3

Cover Photo Courtesy of Bob Donnan/Imagn Images