October remained spooky for a few former unbeatens as Louisville, USC and Oregon all went down. Oregon’s was an oxymoronic “good loss”, so they get to stay in the playoff picture for now. The door is still open for one-loss teams to “come and get the boat”, but hopefully their attempt won’t end like poor Georgie’s…by getting their arm bitten off by a scary ass clown. This week we will turn introspective and identify those weak points that teams should fear costing them a future playoff or New Year’s Six trip.

Rose Bowl (#1 vs. #4)- Ohio State vs. Florida State

Lou Holtz has already given us a demonstration of what happens when you challenge this Ohio State team’s manhood. Far be it from me to make an older and wiser man’s mistake. I do think this team is tough, as they demonstrated in the gritty win over Notre Dame earlier in the season. Notre Dame just showed what they do to teams that aren’t particularly tough (ahem, called it, ahem). However, I do think a team with a physical secondary that can force these elite receivers to alter routes and disrupt Kyle McCord’s timing could cause some problems for this Ohio State offense. The two teams capable of doing this are the two the Buckeyes have to get through to win the division: Penn State and Michigan.

Jordan Travis looked 100% again on Saturday, which really was the biggest scare factor for this Florida State team. Travis is the straw that stirs the drink for this team, and when he’s on the field and healthy this offense should be a dynamic threat. Defensively, the Seminoles have a ferocious pass rush and a talented secondary. A team with a strong running game can move the ball on this defense though and neutralize the pass rush. That team might have most closely resembled Clemson in the ACC this season, but if Florida State were to draw a Georgia or Michigan in the playoff, then those teams would challenge this defense.

Sugar Bowl (#2 vs. #3)- Oklahoma vs. Washington

Dillon Gabriel is absolutely a quarterback capable of beating teams, but that doesn’t mean the best strategy isn’t to force him to beat you with his arms. The team with the best shot to take down the Sooners is the team that can keep Gabriel in the pocket and force him to beat you with his arm. Texas was the team most suited to doing this, but I do think a well-coached team, like Kansas State for example, can scheme their way to forcing Gabriel into being a one-dimensional threat. Looking ahead to playoff time, Penn State or Michigan would pose a difficult challenge for anyone but is uniquely equipped to neutralize what makes Oklahoma so dangerous.

Washington survived their first test of the season…with some help from Dan Lanning. I still believe that Washington’s best is as good as anybody else’s best. Michael Penix is a poised, veteran quarterback. The receiving corps is dangerous, despite Jalen McMillan’s injury struggles. The defensive front can make life difficult for people. The elephant in the locker room though, and the one I hate to even bring up but would be remiss not to, is Michael Penix’s injury history. A team that can get after him and make life uncomfortable for him can disrupt everything this Husky offense does, as we saw for parts of the Oregon game. Teams like Utah and Oregon State come to mind as teams that could really make a tough matchup for Washington.

Orange Bowl- North Carolina vs. Penn State

Drake Maye and Mack Brown now have to contend with the unbearable of massive talent. Mack Brown might be the college football head coach who has the least in common with Nic Cage, but their problems are largely the same now. I do also wonder if North Carolina will meet its match when they finally play an offense that can go stride for stride with them. The Tar Heels defense is better than it was last year, but I’m not sure they have been truly challenged yet either. Florida State is the obvious in-conference opponent to meet that description. Thinking ahead, I think North Carolina might struggle to keep up with the elite Pac-12 teams too.

Penn State’s defense may even rival Michigan’s, and that’s saying something. Drew Allar continues to improve each week, but he’s still an inexperienced quarterback. If Ohio State and Michigan can get after him, then Penn State could struggle to score against some teams. The other thing that seems obvious is to force Allar into passing downs where play action and quick, short passes can’t be utilized effectively. I said last week that this is a legitimate three team race. This weekend will let us know how accurate that statement was with Penn State and Ohio State squaring off.

Cotton Bowl- Texas vs. Michigan

It seemed inevitable that Texas would resurface in the column once some more undefeated teams fell, and here we are. Texas still has one of the best wins of the year with the road win over Alabama. The loss in Red River was a heartbreaker, but not a dream killer. Texas still has every opportunity to win the Big XII, which would almost assuredly be good enough to earn a playoff bid. Quinn Ewers has been rolling this year and this Texas defense is big, fast and physical. As we saw in Red River though, a true dual threat quarterback could cause problems for this defense. Guys like Caleb Williams, Bo Nix and Jordan Travis in particular come to mind as potential playoff/bowl opponents.

Michigan looks like both an unstoppable force and an immovable object right now. Their strength of schedule, or lack thereof, to this point has created an opportunity for them to look great, but to the Wolverines’ credit they’ve seized that opportunity. I’m not sure exactly what their specific Achilles’ heel would be at this point…maybe a team that can score two touchdowns in a game? In all seriousness, I think forcing Michigan into passing situations and forcing J.J. McCarthy to be the one to beat you.

Fiesta Bowl- Air Force vs. Oregon State

As the New Year’s Six structure changes with the advent of the 12-team playoff next year, it is high time we get a service academy into the New Year’s Six! Make it happen Air Force. The Falcons survived a tough Wyoming game on Saturday. Fresno State still looms as their biggest Mountain West threat. Air Force has always been the more pass happy of the service academies. Coincidence? I think not. But, I do still think forcing them to play from behind takes them out of their offense and makes them play a brand of offense they aren’t as comfortable playing.

The Beavs suffered a close loss to previous column darling Washington State earlier in the year, but they have rebounded nicely with wins over Utah and UCLA. Oregon State is a hard-nosed and physical team. Dennis Martinez is a tough runner and with his size, D.J. Uiagalelei is difficult to stop in short yardage situations. What D.J. Uiagalelei is not fond of doing is throwing the ball 30+ times and getting into boat races. If teams like Washington and Oregon can jump out to leads, and stalemate the line of scrimmage battle, then Oregon State will struggle to get back into games. The Big XII elites, Texas and Oklahoma, also strike me as unfavorable matchups for the Beavers.

Peach Bowl- Georgia vs. Oregon

Georgia is its own worst enemy. I must have said this eight times in eight different ways at this point in the season. They have been on cruise control for most of the season. This is as complete a team as you will find on paper. Carson Beck, in many ways, has looked better than his predecessor, Stetson Bennett IV. However, he is still an inexperienced quarterback and, like Drew Allar, the team that can force him to be the one to beat them might be the team to best the Dawgs. Texas and Michigan come to mind as teams most equipped for that task.

Dan Lanning is going to catch a lot of deserved flack this week, but I also think he deserves some credit. Personally, I don’t think he made the correct decisions to go for it on 4^th down late in the game…several times. However, I respect his dedication to being aggressive, maybe just have a better play call ready? I also respect the fact that he owned up to it and took responsibility. That suggests a coach who defends his team and is willing to live with the consequences of his decisions. Let’s see if he can actually learn from them this time. Oregon is a well-built team with a veteran quarterback and good line play. Gone are the days when toughness was the antidote to taking down the Ducks. Bo Nix, despite his experience, has a history of getting impatient against the bend-but-don’t-break defenses. He can be lulled into making mistakes.

Covery Photo Courtesy of Simon Sweetman Photography