It’s post-Thanksgiving food coma week! For today’s tiers, we will be power ranking the levels of post-feast nap time. This week has some great games and some tough gambling lines, but there are some opportunities here too. The playoffs picture is starting to take shape, as is the race to the number one overall pick, and that gives us some insight into which teams might be ripe to bet on or against as the regular season winds down.
Tier 1: The “ Wait it’s already time to go back to work?” Nap (Season Record: 14-18-1)
Titans +5.5 over Eagles
Chiefs -2.5 over Bengals
Cowboys -10.5 over Colts
Tennessee let me down last week by failing to win their “revenge match” against the Bengals, but the Eagles, while continuing to win games, have not been the juggernaut that they were at the beginning of the season. Expect the Titans to have some answers for Philadelphia’s ground attack. The Eagles are still the better team, but Tennessee can keep it close. Kansas City is rolling right now, and we get the benefit of this line being deflated thanks to Cincinnati’s recent hot streak. Ja’Marr Chase should be back for Cincinnati and there’s always a chance that sparks the Bengals to a victory, but I feel good betting on this Chiefs offense with a line this low. The Colts are a bad team and Dallas is a good team who needs every win they can get down the stretch, which really sets this up for a blowout win for the Cowboys, especially with a long week to prepare.
Tier 2: The “Dammit I Missed Black Friday” Nap (Season Record: 12-24)
Vikings -3 over Jets
49ers -3.5 over Dolphins
Chargers -1.5 over Raiders
This kind of feels like a dangerous tier, but hell I haven’t had any luck with my second tier all year so why should it improve now? The Vikings, 49ers, and Chargers are all better than their respective opponents, but that’s true most weeks. I feel good taking Minnesota in a non-primetime slot, plus for all the love heaped on Mike White last week, it was a bad Bears defense that he lit up. San Francisco and Miami should be a great game, but with Miami being the one’s traveling I feel good taking the Niners here. Their defense is heating up, and the offense is just fine. The Chargers have a habit of winning these games by the skin of their teeth, but one-and-a-half is a low line against a Raiders team that is still putrid, despite last week’s overtime win over the Seahawks.
Tier 3: The “I Can Still Start My Christmas Shopping” Nap (Season Record: 20-18)
Falcons +1.5 over Steelers
Lions +1.5 over Jaguars
Bucs -3.5 over Saints
It feels like Atlanta and Detroit are being undervalued here. I get that Jacksonville and Pitsburgh both won last week and Atlanta and Detroit both lost, but I think that just means that the Falcons and Lions are value plays. Atlanta had a real chance to beat a hot Commanders team on the road last week and Buffalo needed an absolute laser beam throw from Josh Allen and a last second field goal to beat Detroit in regulation. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh beat a stinky Colts team and the Jaguars pulled off like the fifth 4th quarter comeback against Baltimore this season and did it at home. Lastly, I understand the Saints have had success against the Bucs since Tom Brady made it TOMpa Bay, but the Bucs are fighting for their playoff lives now and New Orleans seems lost.
Tier 4: The “Is it Still Thursday of Friday Morning Already?” Nap (Season Record: 18-13-4)
Patriots +4 over Bills
Giants +2.5 over Commanders
Browns -7 over Texans
Regardless of the fact that New England lost on Thanksgiving night and Buffalo eked out a win, Bill Belichick on a wonky Thursday night game with a 4-point cushion at home? Give me that seven days a week…and twice on Sunday, especially with a still-banged-up Josh Allen. I also love betting on Brian Daboll as a home underdog with a long week of preparation, even with all the injuries the Giants have stayed competitive. I don’t love betting on the Browns, but Houston is in active tank mode and even the prospect of ruining Deshaun Watson’s Cleveland debut won’t derail the vision.
Tier 5: The “Couch Nap During The Cowboys Game” Nap (Season Record: 23-13-1)
Packers -4.5 over Bears
Broncos +8.5 over Ravens
Rams +7.5 over Seahawks
Aaron Rodgers has been cleared to play and he’s owned the Bears his whole career! Justin Fields status is also still up in the air, and I don’t think Chicago can hang with any NFL team without him. I’m completely out on Denver at this point, but can we trust Baltimore with a spread this high against anybody? I don’t think so either. The Rams are out for the rest of the season, but they also don’t own their first-round pick so have no incentive to tank. Bryce Perkins brought an interesting wrinkle to the Rams offense last week, and with the game being in Los Angeles they can keep things competitive.
Last Week: 9-6-1
Season Record: 87-87-6
Prop Record: 4-9
Cover Photo Courtesy of Frederick Breedon/Getty Images