Sometimes you have a really elaborate idea to have a gambling rule applicable to every playoff game. Sometimes your best laid plans don’t work out because you are working night shift and you invite friends over for the game and plan a big barbecue and don’t leave yourself enough time to write a weekly column. Sometimes we’re all just dogs chasing cars. Anyway, here are some quick picks for the division round.
Titans -4 over Bengals
I hate that this line moved another half-point. The Titans feel like a relatively weak one seed, however they are good enough to win at least one playoff game at home. Mike Vrabel is a good coach. Derrick Henry’s return should help some and A.J. Brown has been a menace since he returned from injury.
49ers +5.5 over Packers
I hate that this line dropped a half-point. The Packers should win this game. Rodgers in the freezing cold in Lambeau feels like a sure W. Green Bay is also getting some key pieces back on defense. However, the 49ers are playing their best ball right now. Their biggest weakness is the potential back-breaking Jimmy G interception, but to have a back-breaking interception the game has to be close to begin with.
Bills +1.5 over Chiefs
Buffalo looked like a legitimate Super Bowl team in the Wild Card round playing an absolutely flawless offensive game. They won’t play that well again, but I’m not sure they have to. The Bills are substantially better defensively than Kansas City and I think Josh Allen has the poise and swagger to go into Kansas City and have a strong performance.
Buccaneers -3 over Rams
This game is the most puzzling of the weekend to me. On the one hand, Tampa Bay is not healthy and the Rams just took care of major business in the Wild Card round. On the other hand, Los Angeles has been a seesaw over the back half of the season and capable of looking like a Super Bowl team one week and a fringe playoff team the next. I’ll default to Brady takes care of business at home.
Season Record: 53-38
Playoff Record: 5-1