The Gambler’s Preseason CFB Over/Under Picks

The Gambler is 4 Down Territory’s sports handicapping article written by Ross Agee.  This piece will focus on good bets, bad beats, sports gambling information and the occasional DFS lineup (if you don’t know what DFS is you can’t afford it).  

In this part of the world there are four seasons: football season, bowl season, recruiting season and July 4th.  It is never too early to talk college football.  Vegas recently released their over/under win totals for all 130 FBS teams and there is money to be made if you know which way to bet.  As Kenny Rogers says, “you’ve to know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em”.

Take The Over

Mark Richt U (WPTV)
Photo Courtesy of WPTV

MIAMI 8 ½ wins

Mark Richt’s first year at “The U” was a success by most people’s account leading the Hurricanes to 9 wins.  This year Miami returns 14 starters, which is the second most in the ACC Coastal division.  Best of all?  They don’t play Louisville and Clemson and face Virginia Tech and Notre Dame at home.  With the exception of Florida State, the Canes have a pretty manageable schedule.  Jump on this like Nevin Shapiro jumps on recruiting sex parties….too soon?


Will the Bulldogs win the SEC?  No.  Will they win the SEC West?  No.  Will they have more than 5 wins?  Absolutely.  Nick Fitzgerald is the kind of quarterback that “Cousin Eddie” Mullen needs to get his offense going.  The non-conference schedule is manageable which means all State has to do is win 2 conference games.  Does Kentucky or Ole Miss scare anyone?  Me neither.  VEGAS BABY!  STARKVEGAS!

2017 CU Spring Football Game
Photo Courtesy of Cliff Grassmick/Buffzone

COLORADO 7 ½ wins

The Buffaloes quietly had a great year in 2016, and this year could be even better.  The entire offense is back.  USC and Washington are both coming to Boulder and their cross division opponents are Oregon State and Cal, whose stadium is literally falling into the Earth.  Colorado won 10 games last year, and as long as they don’t get caught up in the Devil’s Lettuce, it should be another successful year.

TEXAS STATE 2 ½ wins

Here’s a real underdog pick for all you Rocky fans out there.  The Bobcats won 2 games last year, but between Houston Baptist, UTSA, Coastal Carolina and New Mexico State I think there are some potential wins on the schedule.  What am I basing this on?  I went on a trip to San Marcos, Texas when I was a teenager.  Texas State (formerly Southwest Texas) is in San Marcos.  Coincidence?  I think not.

Take The Under

Vol Navy (USA TODAY Sports)
The “Vol Navy” lined up on the Tennessee River (Photo Courtesy of USA TODAY Sports)

TENNESSEE 7 ½ wins

Last season for the Vols was like when you smash a tee shot into the woods, punch out into a greenside bunker, but manage to get up and down for par.  It wasn’t pretty but they scratched out 8 wins.  Josh Dobbs, Alvin Kamara and Derek Barnett are all gone.  Florida and Alabama are both on the road, as is LSU.  Instead of tee shots into the trees, this year may leave Vol fans diving for the driver they threw in the Tennessee River.  Take the under.

OREGON 8 wins

There is reason for optimism in Eugene again.  Willie Taggart is off to a hot start in recruiting and Autzen Stadium is one of the better home field advantages in all of college football, not to mention the unlimited pockets of super booster Phil Knight.  But 8 wins would be double their win total from a year ago.  Best case scenario for the Ducks is a push, but I think they get to more of the 6-7 win range, which would be a good rebuilding year for the Ducks.  The program is heading in the right direction, but Nike wasn’t built in a day.

Larry Fedora and Gene Chizik (AP)
UNC’s Head Coach Larry Fedora (left) and former Defensive Coordinator Gene Chizik a.k.a. the ACC’s best tag team wrestling duo (Photo Courtesy of Associated Press)


Tar Heel fans should look forward to November 10th.  This big date is when basketball season starts.  Mitchell Trubisky, Elijiah Hood and Trubisky’s top 3 receivers from last year are all gone.  Gene Chizik got the UNC defense turned around but has decided that sleeping late and playing golf while still being a millionaire is pretty fun.  This team barely got to 8 wins last year, one of which was the huge upset of Florida State.  The good news is: March Madness is only 9 months away!

MISSOURI 6 ½ wins

They suck.

CLEMSON 9 ½ wins

What would a Ross Agee article be without a homer Auburn reference?  I think Auburn beats Clemson in Death Valley on the second week of the season and begins what could be a down year by recent Clemson standards.  A trip to Louisville the following week should be a slobberknocker if last year’s game was any indication.  If the Fighting Dabos are 1-2 after 3 games, what happens to this team the rest of the year?  I’ve got Auburn with a lake going from the Penthouse to the Shithouse this season.  You heard it here first.

College football in the South is the never ending song.  It’s talked about year round.  Be on the lookout for other picks from The Gambler throughout the year as we give our picks on everything from horse racing to underwater hockey.  If you do, there “will be time enough for counting, when the dealin is done.”

Cover Photo Courtesy of





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