“Ghosts are real too. They live inside us, and sometimes, they win.” -Stephen King

“I believe in ghosts, but we create them. We haunt ourselves.” -Laurie Halse Anderson

Until quite recently, the defining moment of Sam Darnold’s career was an, otherwise, unmemorable Monday Night Football loss by the Jets to Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots in 2019. This was the infamous “seeing ghosts” game. A 33-0 blowout loss where Darnold looked completely lost and the idea of him as a franchise quarterback seemed dead in the water. Six years and four teams later, Darnold now has an opportunity to beat the ghosts and cement his place as the first Super Bowl champion from the vaunted 2018 quarterback class. It seems only fitting that his opportunity to vanquish the ghosts once and for all would come against the same Patriots (albeit a Belichick-less version).

Interestingly, you could make an argument that Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel are also fighting the ghost of Belichick in this one. One can’t think of the New England franchise without jumping to what Belichick and Tom Brady accomplished in their many years together. Maye and Vrabel have led a remarkable turnaround after two seasons at rock bottom, but the specter of the Brady-Belichick still looms large. Bringing another Lombardi trophy back to “Titletown” would be a first step out of the shadow of legends.

Oh, and as if we needed another ghost to add to the mix, Seattle enters this game with the ghost of Malcolm Butler highlights on loop building up for two weeks.

That’s the stage, now the question: who’s going to conquer their ghosts?

It’s Darnold’s time to shine. One of my biggest concerns with Seattle was Darnold turning back into a pumpkin come playoff time, particularly after news of his mysterious oblique injury broke, but he hasn’t. Could he be lying in wait to murder all of us on Super Bowl Sunday? Yes. However, I think he’s got one more game in him. New England is a good team and a precocious team, but it feels like Seattle’s time. They are better on both sides of the ball than New England is. I think that Seattle will make life uncomfortable for Drake Maye, who is dealing with a throwing shoulder injury of his own, and their ability to stifle the ground game will force Maye to win it with his arm and legs. That feels like a big ask for a player who just eclipsed the 25-games started mark in the AFC Championship game. On the other side of the ball, I do worry about the Patriots finding ways to turn Darnold over, and if that happens early the ghosts could swarm. Seattle’s supporting cast is better than New England’s though and I think there are enough big plays from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker, Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp and the rest to lift Darnold up and make his life easier.

The Pick: Seahawks -4.5

Score Prediction: Seattle 27 New England 20

Game Narrative Notes:

As you probably know by now, I choose my props based on the game script that I lay out before even looking at FanDuel. I laid out a good portion of my narrative above, but here are a few other thoughts that help tie some of my other props together (which I’ll list below so you can just look at those if you prefer). I think this is going to be a tight end-heavy game. New England’s linebackers and front are built to stop the run and rush the passer, not to hold up in coverage. I think that sets A.J. Barner up for a big game. On the other side, Maye is dealing with a shoulder injury and has a nasty Seattle front seven to deal with. The Seahawks are great against the run and at generating pressure, even if their sack numbers aren’t as high as you’d think they’d be. This lends itself to Maye unloading the ball quickly and/or scrambling which means I like Hunter Henry props, Treyveon Henderson pass catching props (see his preseason screen pass tuddy) and Drake Maye rushing props. Lastly, I think this will come down to Seattle just being able to make one or two more plays offensively than the Pats, and for that reason I love the Rashid Shaheed “big play” props. Thanks for sticking with me for another season and here’s to making back all we lost in the regular season on some well-placed prop bets!

Props:

Coin Toss Heads (-104)

Jersey number of first TD scorer over 11.5 (+104)

A.J. Barner anytime TD (+240), 30+ receiving yards (+130), 4+ Receptions (+152)

Drake Maye anytime TD (+280), 40+ rushing yards (+102)

Drake Maye or A.J. Barner First TD (+700)

Defensive or Special Teams touchdown by either team (+235)

Kenneth Walker 30+ receiving yards (+162)

Kyle Williams 20+ receiving yards (+1000)

Rashid Shaheed 20 + yard reception (+150), 30+ yard reception (+420) and longest reception of game (+750)

Hunter Henry 5+ Receptions (+164)

Treyveon Henderson 2+ Receptions (+205), to catch a pass before Kenneth Walker (+330), and 25+ rushing yards (+152)

Sam Darnold 100+ passing yards in each half (+145) and to throw an interception before a touchdown (+220)

Drake Maye to throw an interception before a touchdown (+215)

Triple Crown Pass/Rec/Rush: Darnold/JSN/Stevenson (+700) or Darnold/JSN/Maye (+1400)

Squares pick: Seattle 7 New England 0 (numbers to avoid 1, 2, 8, 9) (+2200)

Exact margin Seattle by 7 (+1200)

Seattle to win by 7-12 points (+400)

Each team 2+ made field goals (+180)

Last Week’s Record: 1-1

Regular Season Record: 129-140-3

Playoff Record: 7-5

Cover Photo Courtesy of Associated Press