NFL Championship Picks: On Legacy

This has never happened before, or at least if it has, I don’t remember it. We have made it to conference championship weekend and the player that’s most on my mind isn’t even playing. And no, it isn’t Bo Nix. It’s Josh Allen. The biggest story from last week was watching Allen squander his best opportunity to win a Super Bowl. You’ve heard, or read, ad nauseum right now about who wasn’t standing in Allen’s way. His team may have been deficient, but he was the best quarterback left in the playoff field and outside of Matt Stafford it wasn’t particularly close. My respectful apologies to Brock Purdy, Bo Nix, Drake Maye, Sam Darnold and Caleb Williams. C.J. Stroud does not get an apology.

The game that followed was shocking, not by result but by the process by which the result occurred. Josh Allen actively lost his team a playoff football game. The amount of times ESPN talking heads have used the terms “being Superman” or “putting on the cape” in regard to Allen in the last few seasons have made me rethink my stance on the first amendment, but the premise is not wrong. Time and time again Allen has overcome the deficiencies around him to elevate this Buffalo franchise to heights it hasn’t reached since I was in diapers. But, on Saturday, Josh was more goat than G.O.A.T. and his team, predictably, wasn’t good enough to bail him out.

Again, you’ve probably seen or heard about the sequence of events, both Allen’s faults and his teammates’ by now, but for posterity’s sake let’s rehash quickly. Everything started on the next-to-last play of the first half when Allen scrambled for a nice gain but then lost all thought of ball security and coughed up an egregious fumble allowing Denver to kick a last second field goal and increase the lead from three to six going into the half. (Admittedly, I became afraid then that Buffalo was doomed). Then, Allen gets crushed from behind and coughs up the ball on the first play from scrimmage in the second half. Everyone continues to blame Allen for this fumble, but at minimum this is 50/50 between him and Dion Dawkins for completely whiffing the block and exposing Allen’s blind side. A few minutes later, Buffalo’s defense comes up with a big play and picks off Nix in Broncos territory, but Allen responds with a bad interception to squander the opportunity. Allen rallied from that interception to lead some big scoring drives and give the Bills a 4-point lead needing only a stop to win and advance. They couldn’t get that stop. Allen leads another heroic drive augmented by a nifty hook-and-ladder, that will now be forgotten in the annals of trick play lore, to tie the game and send it to overtime. It is worth mentioning though, that on the play before the game-tying field goal Josh missed an open Dawson Knox for what probably would have been a game-sealing touchdown. Alas, to overtime we go.

Photo Courtesy of USA TODAY Sports

Even if you didn’t watch this game, you know what happened in overtime now, so here’s the abridged version. Buffalo gets a stop. Josh Allen, trying to get into chip shot field goal range, hits Brandin Cooks on a long ball but after Cooks has gone to the ground Ja’Quan McMillian ripped the ball out of his hands. The play was ruled an interception. It was allegedly reviewed in New York although that was never announced and no announcement of the call being confirmed or standing was made, at least not to the television audience. (Necessary aside: basically, the same play happened a night later and was ruled a catch by Davante Adams. I happen to think that would have been the correct call in both circumstances, but regardless this interception wasn’t Allen’s fault. He made the right decision and a great throw and the result was to have the ball ripped out of his receiver’s hands. That’s on Cooks, or the officials, or both). Then Denver drives to kick the game-winning field goal, losing Nix to a broken ankle in the process.

So really, looking back on it two of Allen’s four turnovers were as much on his teammates or more than on him. The other two were bad though and the missing of Dawson Knox were opportunities for Allen to win his team a playoff game that he couldn’t capitalize on. He deserves some part of the blame here, but truthfully this was a team loss through and through.

Then, Terry Pegula and Brandon Beane decided to make asses of themselves and a mockery of the entire franchise by firing Sean McDermott and then going on a press conference blame tour calling out Keon Coleman and Josh Allen, both of whom are still employed by the Bills and figure to be important pieces of the puzzle going forward. They also decided to fire McDermott in a year where a quarter of the league was also looking for a new head coach. Again, if we’re looking to apportion blame for why Josh Allen has never made a conference championship game maybe we should start at the top.

Now, why am I bringing all of this up about Josh Allen when there are two games that don’t involve him going on in two days? For the same reason I write this column every week during the season, because I believe this stuff matters. It’s important that we not only remember these things, but that we remember them correctly. Like it or not, athletes are heroes and villains in our culture. Victors tend to write the history books and get to play the role of hero, but the losers deserve to have their story remembered correctly too.

Which brings me to the point of all this, it’s probably safe to say that the first third-to-half of Josh Allen’s playing career is over. How are we going to remember it? Will he be remembered as a statistically and visually striking quarterback who was a loser when it mattered most? Think Karl Malone. Or will it be looked back as the glass ceiling phase that “prepared” him for the moment he finally broke through before winning it all? Think Michael Jordan finally getting past the Bad Boy Pistons. Only time will tell, and the ball is in Josh Allen’s court. Personally, I believe that Allen is too good and cares too much not to get over the hump. I think his career trajectory will ultimately more closely resemble Elway’s than Marino’s, but the fact that it’s still up in the air is why this stupid sport is so damn compelling.

Photo Courtesy of Rams Wire/USA TODAY Sports

Now that I’ve taken up a good 15 minutes of your time talking about a guy we won’t see play again for eight months, here is my quick power ranking of coaches and quarterbacks with the most to gain or lose from a legacy standpoint over the next two games followed by my one-line picks and rationales:

1. Matt Stafford

Thirty-four quarterbacks have won a Super Bowl. Only thirteen of them have won more than one. Stafford has a chance to make it fourteen

2. Sean Payton

No coach has ever won a Super Bowl with two different franchises. Payton could do it, and thanks to his quarterback situation get all the credit too.

3. Sam Darnold

The Jets tenure. The bust label. The flop in Minnesota. All could be washed away by a Super Bowl.

4. Drake Maye

The only reason Aaron Rodgers has never been treated the way Josh Allen was this week is because of 2010. Winning a Super Bowl early in your career buys tons of slack. Maye has a rare opportunity to do it.

5. Sean McVay

An opportunity to get a second Lombardi on the mantle. The only reason he’s this much lower than Stafford is that he could do this for thirty more years if he really wanted to.

6. Mike Vrabel

Bill Belichick’s recent actions and coaching record have diminished the shadow he’s cast over Vrabel, but a Super Bowl ring could remove the shadow permanently. Plus, he can do something Belichick never did: win a playoff game in Denver.

7. Mike MacDonald

Brilliant young coach, but there are never guarantees of returning.

8. Jarrett Stidham

Nothing to lose, and even if he did pull this off, winning a Super Bowl as a backup quarterback will forever be “pulling a Foles” and not “pulling a Stiddy.”

Photo Courtesy of Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Broncos +4.5 over Patriots

I’ve been accused of being a “Bo Nix hater” in the past, and at the risk of perpetuating that I’m just going to say: “are we sure there’s a big difference between Nix and Jarrett Stidham?” Stidham almost can’t be worse than C.J. Stroud was last week, and he has significantly more help than Stroud did. Denver’s defense might not be as good as Houston’s but it’s comparable. Stidham just has to be a steward of the offense to keep them in it.

Rams +2.5 over Seahawks

Seattle looked great last week, but we must remember they were playing an absolutely decimated San Francisco roster. They also lost Zach Charbonnet to a torn ACL, who is critical in pass protection for them. I trust Stafford and McVay here.

Last Week’s Record: 1-3

Regular Season Record: 129-140-3

Playoff Record: 6-4

Cover Photo Courtesy of Bob Dechiar/USA TODAY Sports

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