Most people would consider gambling a vice. Don’t get me wrong, it definitely can be, but to the well-organized mind what is a vice but a lesson in virtue. After all, continuing in the face of adversity requires perseverance. Maintaining the balance in the face of losses requires equal measures moderation and frugality. Reflecting inward to pull out a best week of the season at playoff time requires a little insight and a great deal of humility, and Confucious would have us believe that’s the foundation of all virtues. Here’s to turning vices into virtues and hopefully wins into more wins.

Prudence: Rams -3.5 over Bears

The breakdown for this game is simple. Seeing it for the narrative is where prudence comes into play. The Los Angeles Rams have a better offense than the Chicago Bears, and certainly more consistent. The Los Angeles Rams have a better defense than the Chicago Bears. It’s easy to get lost in the Ben Johnson postgame speech, the Caleb Williams heroics and the late game magic. All of that is fun and make the Bears a fun bet, but don’t bet on it continuing this week. The Rams are the better team and are the smart play. Matt Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams should move the ball at will against a Chicago Bears defense that wasn’t great before the T.J. Edwards injury and is significantly worse off without him calling the shots in the middle of that defense. On the other side of the ball, I do have mild concerns about the Rams secondary holding up if Caleb Williams is up to his usual play-extending, off-platform tricks, but this is a pass rush that can accelerate even Williams’ clock and make him uncomfortable.

On some level, prudence requires an acknowledgement of the potential flaws in your hypothesis. Here are the places where I could see things going sideways for the Rams. First, I think Los Angeles has to put the proverbial foot on the proverbial throat as soon as they can on Sunday night. If they let Caleb Williams hang around like they did Bryce Young, the end result might be more Bears’ magic and another Ben Johnson Tony D’Amato impression than a close Rams’ win. Chicago also has a special teams advantage over Los Angeles, so if things come down to the kicking game late…well we’ve already seen what the Bears did with one onside kick attempt this year.

Fortitude: Seahawks -7 over 49ers

The announcement of a new Sam Darnold oblique injury does raise some concerns, but I’m sticking with my gut here. In other words, displaying intestinal fortitude. San Francisco pulled out all the stops to gut out a win over the Eagles in the division round, which would be cause for confidence in the Niners if Philly wasn’t begging to be put out of its misery already. The 49ers have been one of the most injury-riddled teams in the league this season, making their record and current standing a huge testament to Kyle Shanahan, Robert Saleh and Christian McCaffrey, but this has to catch up to them at some point. San Francisco’s defense is employing bend-but-don’t-break by necessity at this point, which was a good enough strategy against a Philly offense that had already broken itself, but that isn’t how you beat Sam Darnold. You have to pressure Darnold and force him to make some mistakes, which a healthy Niners defense could do but not this version. Conversely, Seattle’s defense is one of the best in the NFL and the 49ers will struggle to consistently move the ball. Even if Shanahan hasn’t exhausted his entire bag of tricks, it will take more than one or two explosive plays to win this game.

Betting on Sam Darnold in a playoff game requires fortitude. We’ve seen him turn into a pumpkin time and time again in big games. He did it earlier this season in the first Rams game. He did it last year in the last game of the regular season and the division round for the Vikings. He’s the lynchpin in all of this. All he has to do is be game manager Darnold and Seattle will find themselves a win away from the Super Bowl. If he tries to put on a cape, he just might throw Seattle right out of the playoffs.

Justice: Bills +1.5 over Broncos

Sometimes a wrong must be righted. I bet on Trevor Lawrence over Josh Allen in a playoff game…and recommended others follow me down that path. I let my lone blemish of the wild card round be betting against the best quarterback in the playoffs, and yes that makes me feel dumb, but fortunately we have a chance to make it right. We can bet Josh Allen this week. We can bet him as an underdog thanks to early line movement. We can bet him against a Denver team that is begging to be upset. Denver’s defense is good, but if they are vulnerable anywhere it’s against a strong running game and a play-extending quarterback. Pat Surtain is a shutdown corner, but who is he shutting down? Buffalo’s lack of a true number one receiver may go from weakness to strength in this one. The beauty of Josh Allen is he can make things work with a host of receivers as opposed to one dominant QB-WR combo.

Buffalo’s defense, specifically their run defense, could be the problem in this game. But, Denver doesn’t run the ball especially well. If there were ever a playoff game where I thought Buffalo’s strengths were amplified and weaknesses mitigated, this is probably it. James Cook and Josh Allen props should also be bet aplenty here.

Temperance: Texans +3 over Patriots

I know it looks a little douchey to quote yourself but, “I think the criticism: good across the board, but not excellent at anything also applies to this Patriots team and I worry they will bow out of the playoffs as soon as they come across excellence.” Some might say douchey, but I would argue that it just shows the temperance not to get over eager in betting against New England last week. Rather, we’re waiting until they finally see a great Houston defense this week. The Texans have their problems, and Nico Collins’ potential unavailability is a cause for concern, but I just see this Houston front seven overwhelming the Patriots offensive line, rendering them one-dimensional. Drake Maye is a great young player, but I’m not sure he’s ready to win a playoff game against an elite defense singlehandedly.

Houston’s offense could be this pick’s undoing. C.J. Stroud tried his best to let Pittsburgh have a chance last Monday night. Simple things like shotgun snaps went awry. One fumble killed a potential scoring drive, and another gave Pittsburgh the short field they needed to kick their second field goal. Houston’s defense was good enough to render those mistakes harmless last week, but the further this goes the less they will be able to cover up inept quarterback play, especially if the Texans running game returns to its pre-playoff state of impotence.

Last Week’s Record: 5-1

Regular Season Record: 129-140-3

Playoff Record: 5-1

Cover Photo Courtesy of Vatican Museums