Look, the regular season was a tough beat. This was my worst record in the five years I’ve been doing this column. I was under .500 wire-to-wire. Only put together winning records in back-to-back seasons. But, much like the Carolina Panthers, despite the sub-par record I’m still here for the playoffs. Here’s an opportunity to hit reset and try to find some magic. This will be the last week of tiers…and hopefully of tears.

Tier 1: The Aspirant (Season Record: 14-19)

Jaguars +1.5 over Bills

In the Led Zeppelin concert film (video?), “The Song Remains the Same”, there is a fantasy sequence cut-in of Jimmy Page climbing a rocky cliff to a house on a mountain where he encounters an elderly version of himself. He describes that scene in an interview with Chuck Klosterman for GQ as follows: “…the aspirant is climbing toward the hermit, who is this beacon of light. The idea is that anyone can acquire truth at any point in his life.”

In a sense, both the Jaguars and Bills are still aspirants. Neither has a Super Bowl, and while Josh Allen has the MVP hardware and an undisputed claim as a top 3 quarterback, he still hasn’t got past Pat Mahomes in the playoffs. Trevor Lawrence embodies the full quote, though. For most of his NFL career, it has seemed that his NFL career would fail to live up to his pedigree coming out of Clemson. This season he seems to be finding truth five years into his NFL career. He couldn’t have caught the AFC in a more perfect time to ascend to the beacon on the hill either. Mahomes and Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are all out of the playoffs. Allen, along with James Cook, is carrying a deeply flawed Bills team. Unlike the fluke Blake Bortles AFC Championship run eight years ago, this Jaguars team is legitimate and if Lawrence recent string of good play is just who he is now then Jacksonville not only wins this game but is a legitimate AFC contender.

Tier 2: The Rest of the AFC (Season Record: 23-20)

Patriots -3.5 over Chargers

Texans -3 over Steelers

I feel very confident that both favorites here win their respective games. There is some part of me that worries a little that these lines leave the door open for a backdoor cover or push, but at some point, just pick the team you think wins and let the chips fall where they may.

The Chargers offensive line issues have been well-covered and well-documented since the Joe Alt season-ending injury. Thanks, in part, to a reasonable schedule stretch since that time Justin Herbert has found ways to overcome it, but I just have trouble thinking this group can hold up against a playoff-caliber defense. The path for Los Angeles would be to try to establish a footing in the running game and keep Drake Maye off the field, especially as this figures to be a frigid night game. At times this year, even with the offensive line injuries, the Chargers have looked strong on the ground with both Omarion Hampton, battling another ankle injury, and Kimani Vidal. That is the weak point of the Patriots defense and the place where Jim Harbaugh could attack to try to pull off an upset.

I just don’t see it. Drake Maye has been too good and is rightfully in a two-man MVP debate. Los Angeles’s defense is good across the board, but not excellent at anything. I think the brain trust of Maye, Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels can scheme mismatches and find enough places to exploit to win this game. However, I think the criticism: good across the board, but not excellent at anything also applies to this Patriots team and I worry they will bow out of the playoffs as soon as they come across excellence.

Speaking of excellence, Houston’s defense, especially their pass defense, fits the bill. Despite recent letdowns, like allowing 21 points to the putrid Raiders, I’ve seen enough from Houston’s defense to buy what it’s selling. Aaron Rodgers proved, yet again, last week that with time to throw he can still be an effective passer. The problem is he won’t have any time to throw on Monday night. I expect Houston’s game plan to involve heavy pressure and lots of discomfort for Rodgers. For his sake, I hope we don’t get more sideline shots like this on Monday night. This line dropping to three makes a backdoor push more likely than backdoor cover, which increases my comfort level laying the points.

Tier 3: A Stoppable Force Meets a Moveable Object (Season Record: 27-39)

49ers +4.5 over Eagles

Of all the playoff matchups I’ll tell my kids and grandkids about one day, the 2025 Eagles offense vs. the 2025 49ers defense will not be one of them. This matchup is more fit for a race to the top of the draft board than a playoff game. Philadelphia has shown no interest in wanting to consistently move the ball. The running game has cratered. Jalen Hurts remains allergic to throwing the ball between the numbers. The scheme is bland, and that’s putting it nicely. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s once-vaunted defense has been decimated by injuries at all levels and is now trying it’s best to employ a bend-but-don’t-break-anymore-than-we-already-have scheme. Robert Saleh may have his deficiencies as a head coach, but he is a brilliant defensive mind and I think he can scheme ways to force Philadelphia to do things they don’t want to. That makes the difference for me here.

On the other side of the ball, Kyle Shanahan, Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy and George Kittle going against the potential of this Eagles defense is a banger of a Wild Card matchup. Trent Williams seems unlikely to play, but otherwise San Fran’s offense seems to be returning to full strength. Philadelphia’s defense has shown flashes but hasn’t consistently been the juggernaut that led them to the Super Bowl last year. Maybe they find it again in the postseason, but banking on them doing so against this offense feels foolhardy.

Tier 4: Rivalry 3.0 (Season Record: 31-33-1)

Bears +1.5 over Packers

The old mantra is that it’s hard to beat a team twice in the same season, but what about thrice? That’s what the Bears will try to do on Saturday night. It’s funny that the mantra is what it is, but the evidence doesn’t support that claim. Kind of like most things that get parroted on First Take, Get Up, The Herd, Barstool Sports and the like, it just isn’t true.

If Green Bay’s defense were at full strength, I may feel differently about this game. Micah Parsons’ injury is the most noteworthy, but Green Bay’s defense has been decimated by a slew of injuries. I think they will struggle to keep Chicago from running the ball, and that will make life considerably easier for Caleb Williams in his first career playoff start.

There are two scenarios where I see Green Bay potentially winning this game though, and that’s why I am less confident here than in some of the others. First, Jordan Love has done this before where he just threw the team on his back and looked like peak Aaron Rodgers for three hours. That could happen again. Second, and this one is kind of related, Chicago’s defensive metrics are propped up by the fact that they force a ton of turnovers. Whether you think that’s skill-based or luck, it still is subject to some random variance in a one-game sample size. If Love plays a flawless game, and the rest of the team doesn’t put the ball on the ground, then Green Bay can walk out of Soldier Field with a win.

Tier 5: Vegas Knows What It’s Doing (Season Record: 34-28-2)

Panthers +10.5 over Rams

Give credit where it’s due. The oddsmakers know what they are doing. I was greedily circling this matchup preparing to hammer Los Angeles at -6.5 or even -7.5. Alas, Vegas came prepared. Los Angeles is still my pick to win the NFC today, but a double-digit road favorite in a playoff game is hard to confidently bet. I think Los Angeles wins this game. I think they win comfortably, but Carolina showed just last week that if you leave the backdoor open, even a little, they are willing to walk right through. The Panthers can run the ball and I think their ability to shrink the number of possessions in the game will also keep the scoreboard closer than the product on the field would suggest.

Last Week’s Record: 7-9

Season Record: 129-140-3

Cover Photo Courtesy of Lola Journal