Merry Christmas everyone! I’m sure y’all want to spend time with your families instead of reading my bad thoughts on these games, and frankly I want to get back to time with my family too, so this will be a shorter and, hopefully, sweeter edition this week.

Tier 1: Visions of Sugar Plums (Season Record: 11-18)

Bills -1.5 over Eagles

49ers -3 over Bears

Buffalo needs this game. They could technically still win the AFC East and are certainly still jockeying for seeding. Philadelphia could use this game but doesn’t have to have it. I do have small fears of Philadelphia’s running game figuring things out this week against a bad Buffalo run defense, but Josh Allen could put on his cape to overcome that.

It’s time to accept that San Francisco with a healthy Brock Purdy is just good. Christian McCaffrey is, kind of quietly(?), having an incredible season. George Kittle went down with an ankle sprain Monday night, but I still think San Fran has enough offensive firepower to win this game. On the other hand, Robert Saleh has forced to adjust his defense to a zone-heavy, bend-don’t-break scheme with all the injuries to his pass rush, which might be the perfect way to play Caleb Williams anyway. Williams’ force multiplier is the ability to extend plays and make things happen out of structure. If your defense is sitting and waiting for that anyway, that could be a strategy for frustrating Williams.

Tier 2: The Moon on the Breast of the New Fallen Snow (Season Record: 20-19)

Texans +1.5 over Chargers

Panthers +7.5 over Seahawks

Saints -3 over Titans

Houston is still fighting for the AFC South. They didn’t look it last week, but this seems like a prime rebound spot. At some point, the Chargers’ offensive line decimation has to cost them right? Right? If it’s ever going to happen it would be against this nasty Houston pass defense.

Seattle should not be getting this many points in the Eastern time zone against a potential playoff team. It’s a long week for them, but that Thursday night game was a heavyweight fight. Expect a sluggish start for Seattle.

I have gone from thinking New Orleans was the worst team in the NFL to kind of (?) liking them. The defense seems to be playing better and Tyler Shough gets a little better each week. He shook off a slow start against the Jets last week to finding Chris Olave for a score, while utility man Taysom Hill found Olave for another, game-sealing score in the 4^th quarter.

Tier 3: On Dasher! On Dancer! (Season Record: 23-37)

Colts +6.5 over Jaguars

Patriots -12.5 over Jets

Falcons +8.5 over Rams

Philip Rivers wasn’t the reason the Colts lost on Monday night. Indianapolis’s defense let gramps down. They got roasted like chestnuts on an open fire by San Francisco. (Sorry that was bad but I had to get one bad Christmas joke in). Meanwhile, Jacksonville looks like…contenders? Maybe Jacksonville blows out Indianapolis to confirm contender status, but I’ll give Trevor Lawrence and company one more week of “Nobody Believes In Us” bulletin board material.

New England doesn’t necessarily need this game, so this might be a mistake, but the Jets are abysmal.

Los Angeles has the same problem Seattle has. It’s a long week of prep, even longer for the Rams than the Seahawks, but still having to traverse the entirety of the contiguous United States’s time zones. Plus, don’t forget that Atlanta owes Los Angeles it’s first round pick in this draft and they’d love nothing more than to devalue that pick with a win against the Rams. I’m not saying it happens, but this spread is high.

Tier 4: His Eyes How They Twinkled! His Dimples How Merry! (Season Record: 31-25-1)

Lions -7.5 over Vikings

Packers -2.5 over Ravens

Cardinals +7 over Bengals

Steelers -3 over Browns

Detroit’s defense has been completely decimated, as evidenced by giving up almost 30 points to the Steelers, but I also watched Max Brosmer’s first NFL start. We didn’t get the monster Jahmyr Gibbs game I predicted last week, so maybe this week?

At this point, it is unclear if Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, both or neither will play this week. If it comes down to it, I like the rest of the Packers more than the rest of the Ravens. And, I trust Malik Willis, who is also on the injury report, more than I trust Snoop Huntley, even if Huntley does give an excellent “birds and bees” talk as a backup dad.

Both Arizona and Cincinnati are just trying to get to next season at this point. Don’t bet. Don’t watch.

That Mike Tomlin did it again. I’m becoming increasingly convinced that he could coach 22 average joes to an 8-8-1 NFL record. He weathered “Fire Tomlin!” chants earlier in the year and even said he thought they had a point in his postgame press conference! And yet, it looks like the Steelers will be winning the AFC North yet again.

Tier 5: Merry Christmas to All, and to All, Good Night! (Season Record: 29-24-1)

Commanders -7 over Cowboys

Chiefs +12.5 over Broncos

Bucs -5.5 over Dolphins

Giants +1.5 over Raiders

I’m officially saying take the points in the bookend games of the NFL Christmas snoozefest, but truthfully just don’t bet them. Spend time with the fam and watch casually.

Tampa Bay has to have this game. I don’t trust them anymore, but Miami looked like it finally threw in the towel last week. Quinn Ewers clearly isn’t ready to start an NFL game.

I refuse to lose anymore money backing the 2025 Las Vegas Raiders.

Last Week’s Record: 9-7

Season Record: 114-124-2

Cover Photo Courtesy of AZ Central