Sometimes it hasn’t been a good gambling season. That’s ok. The important thing is to keep coming out here and making more picks. You can tell by the weight of the tiers that my confidence is reaching an all-time low. Perfect time to fade everything I’m selling…or maybe I can heat up for the playoffs? It really is the hope that kills you…

Tier 1: The Race to the Top of the AFC (Season Record: 10-17)

Broncos -3 over Jaguars

Patriots +2.5 over Ravens

Denver is a monster at home. Just when it seemed like the Packers had their number, Patrick Surtain times his first interception of the season perfectly and completely flips that game on its head. Bo Nix looked like a good NFL quarterback for all four quarters on Sunday, too. If Nix is going to string together that kind of consistency, and Denver secures homefield throughout, this could be your AFC Super Bowl representative.

New England getting points against this Baltimore team feels like stealing money. I know Baltimore won last week, but that said so much more about Cincinnati than it did the Ravens. New England still has a shot at the one seed, so this game still matters.

Tier 2: When a Rivalry Becomes a Rivalry Again (Season Record: 19-19)

Bears +1.5 over Packers

It’s wild to me that this Chicago team, the same one that got wrecked by J.J. McCarthy in a 4^th quarter to open the season, is this good. But, that’s where we are. Ben Johnson was completely changed the culture and vibes in the Midway. Caleb Williams looks like he might be a multi-year starter on a playoff caliber team. The defense is shutting people down.

Green Bay is also reeling after Christian Watson and Micah Parsons both went down with significant injuries last week. I find it hard to believe that this iteration of the Packers sweeps this iteration of the Bears. If I’m right…hold on to your hats folks because this might just become a rivalry again.

Tier 3: The Full NFC Gamut (Season Record: 21-35)

Seahawks -1.5 over Rams

Saints -4.5 over Jets

Falcons -2.5 over Cardinals

49ers +6.5 over Colts

This tier contains the full NFC spectrum. On the one hand, you have the Rams and Seahawks duking it out for the NFC West crown and the #1 seed in the NFC. On the other, you have the Saints and Falcons trying to stay out of the NFC South cellar and Arizona throwing their hat in the ring for worst team in the conference. Then you have San Francisco, who is firmly in the “playoff team that isn’t a Super Bowl contender” tier.

Los Angeles took the first meeting in Inglewood and has looked like the better of the two teams since. However, with the game in Seattle and Davante Adams out with a hamstring injury, this feels like a season split for these two teams. Seattle’s defense is nasty and if they get a little help from the weather, then I could see them dragging this game down into the mud, which is the best chance for a Seahawks victory.

New Orleans is considerably better than I thought earlier in the season. Tyler Shough has been a significant reason why. He has breathed some life into this, and Chris Olave is showing that he can be a legitimate WR1 in this league with good health and adequate quarterback play.

Atlanta vs. Arizona feels like a race to the bottom of the NFC at this point. The Falcons are worse than the Cardinals at getting out of their own way, which counterintuitively means they will probably win this game and hurt their draft position. Also, for all you fantasy owners out there, go ahead and bench Kyle Pitts this week because there’s a better chance of Sherrone Moore coaching a college football team again than Pitts scoring a touchdown this week.

Is it just me or was Philip Rivers fine last week? He can’t really throw a deep ball anymore and he definitely isn’t doing a naked boot, but he can at least play safe football. I think the Colts grind this pace of play to a halt and keep this game close.

Tier 4: Trust Issues (Season Record: 29-23-1)

Cowboys -2.5 over Chargers

Vikings -2.5 over Giants

Bengals -4.5 over Dolphins

Lions -6.5 over Steelers

It feels like I should be done with the Cowboys and back in on the Chargers at this point. Any reliable metric would suggest this. And yet, that’s exactly why I think Dallas wins this game. Does this make any sense? All I can say is…iykyk.

J.J. McCarthy is still feeling his way through this league, but Brian Flores’s defense seems to have found its footing and health again. That’s something I can put some faith in.

Morose Joe Burrow or seventh-round pick Quinn Ewers? Give me the sad sack.

We’re due for a monster Jahmyr Gibbs game. I don’t trust the Steelers defense. Aaron Rodgers isn’t mounting a two-score-plus comeback anymore. This feels like Detroit jumps to a multi-score league and just squeezes the life out of the game.

Tier 5: D.W.D.B (Season Record: 26-22-1)

Commanders +6.5 over Eagles

Browns +10.5 over Bills

Panthers +3 over Bucs

Titans +3 over Chiefs

Texans -14.5 over Raiders

Watch the college football playoff instead of two teams whose fanbases actively hate them right now.

Cleveland’s defense might can keep this close-ish?

Betting the Panthers here is a straight hedge of my preseason “Tampa Bay to make the Playoffs” bet. I have no shame.

Not watching or betting a Mahomes-less Chiefs…

…Unless they played the Raiders, maybe.

Last Week’s Record: 6-10

Season Record: 105-117-2

Cover Photo Courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports