With a road trip of my own this week, welcome to a quick picks edition of the column this week. Fuel up, get your snacks and tunes/podcasts, and strap in for a fun ride!

Tier 1: Fueling Up (Season Record: 8-17)

Rams -5.5 over Lions

Broncos +2.5 over Packers

Being in my top tier has been a kiss of death this year, maybe I’m just jinxing people at this point.

Los Angeles, with an aging quarterback, would really stand to benefit from a first-round bye and homefield advantage. I expect them to continue pushing toward that this week with a win over the Lions.

Green Bay seems to be heating up, but this is a team that always seems to have a “WTF?” showing just when you start to buy-in. Plus, Denver hasn’t had to play a meaningful game in a few weeks, and this defense is still nasty.

Tier 2: Hitting the Road (Season Record: 18-17)

Bills -1.5 over Patriots

Panthers -2.5 over Saints

Cowboys -6.5 over Vikings

Josh Allen and the Bills need this game more than New England does, plus there is too much pride their to let the Pats complete the season sweep. Also, since the first meeting between these two, Buffalo’s defense has gotten healthier and James Cook has got the run game going.

New Orleans and Minnesota are bad, bad football teams. Banking on them being competitive two weeks in a row feels like folly. Plus, Carolina is still fighting for the playoffs, as is Dallas with Philadelphia in free fall.

Tier 3: Snack Break (Season Record: 21-31)

Cardinals +9.5 over Texans

Chiefs -4.5 over Chargers

Bengals +2.5 over Ravens

Dolphins +3.5 over Steelers

The Cardinals aren’t good, but neither is the Texans offense. Houston has a great defense, which will probably get them into the playoffs, but this offense can’t be trusted with a line this high.

Desperation time in Kansas City. I’m backing Mahomes with his back against the wall.

Joe Burrow is back baby and aside from a head scratching two picks in two minutes stretch that ultimately cost Cincinnati the game, he kind of carved up Buffalo in the snow. I expect him to do the same to Baltimore this week, after all we just watched him beat this Raven defense in a rusty first start back from injury on Thanksgiving.

Pittsburgh gutted out a controversial win this week, but that doesn’t wash away the excrement stains of what we’ve seen out of this offense most of the year. They shouldn’t be trusted as favorites.

Tier 4: Cruise Control (Season Record: 27-22-1)

Falcons +4.5 over Bucs

Eagles -11.5 over Raiders

Browns +7.5 over Bears

The Bucs appear to be in free fall. Atlanta might be too, but neither this is a “blindly take the points” kind of game.

Philadelphia also appears to be in free fall, but the Raiders had about a 10-week head start. In fact, Las Vegas isn’t so much free falling at this point as they are a black and silver puddle on the ground.

Shedeur kind of looked like an NFL starter last week, despite Cleveland’s defense inexplicably falling apart against the Titans. Chicago is proving themselves a decent team, but a spread like this is just too high.

Tier 5: Are We There Yet? (Season Record: 25-19-1)

Jets +11.5 over Jaguars

Commanders +2.5 over Giants

Titans +12.5 over 49ers

Seahawks -13.5 over Colts

Jets and Titans are just getting too many points against non-elite teams.

Commanders and Giants is an ultimate “don’t bet don’t watch” game.

Philip Rivers has taken the same number of snaps in the last 12 months that you and I have. Seattle has, arguably, the best defense in the NFL. You do the math.

Last Week’s Record: 6-8

Season Record: 99-107-2

Cover Photo Courtesy of Pride of Detroit