According to his former quarterback, Jordon Hudson’s beau always says the NFL season doesn’t start until Thanksgiving. Well, Thanksgiving is behind us and the playoff race is heating up. This week has some pivotal matchups that will determine playoff fates, so it’s a great week for locking in, throwing down some wagers and not getting off your couch.

Tier 1: Dallas’s Ghost of a Chance (Season Record: 8-15)

Cowboys +3.5 over Lions

Eagles -2.5 over Chargers

It’s time that we just admit that Dallas has evolved into a good team. Dak Prescott has always been playing MVP-caliber football, but now the team can run the ball and both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are healthy. The defense has galvanized around Marshawn Kneeland’s tragic passing. Jerry Jones pulled off his best trade since he gave Taylor Sheridan owner’s box tickets for a cameo on the first season of Landman. Quinnen Williams has turned into a game wrecker for the ‘Boys defensive line. Unfortunately, given how the season started for Dallas, they need to stay hot and get some help to have any chance of making the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Detroit feels like it’s clinging to this season with a few fingers after needing a Jahmyr Gibbs supernova game to beat the lowly Giants and then falling to the Packers on Thanksgiving. I know putting a Thursday game this high is a risky proposition, but both teams are on a full week of rest, making this much more like a traditional Sunday game…at least in theory.

Who knows what to make of Philadelphia anymore? Which begs the follow-up, so why would I bet them this confidently? Two things: Philly has a couple of extra rest days and the Eagles front seven against a depleted Chargers’ offensive line is the mismatch of the week. There is something broken with this offense and it is going to take some personnel shake-ups somewhere to fix, but Los Angeles’s defense is merely average. On the other side of the ball, Kimani Vidal is emerging as a legitimate weapon, but Philly’s defense has an opportunity to take over this game.

Tier 2: NFC Homefield and AFC Desperation (Season Record: 16-16)

Bears +6.5 over Packers

Rams -8.5 over Cardinals

Texans +3.5 over Chiefs

It’s time for the Bears to dust off the Rodney Dangerfield routine. They don’t get no respect. Why are the Bears still getting so many points? I agree that some of their wins have been flukey and they will likely be a tantalizing fade come playoff time, but this line is at least three points too high. Green Bay has had two good weeks against teams on the decline, the Lions and Vikings, but they hadn’t exactly been setting the world on fire before that.

Weird things happen in Charlotte, North Carolina. This will be a shake it off game for the Rams who get to go back West and play indoors. Don’t read too much into last week.

Knock on wood, but Sunday Night Football should be an absolute banger this week. Houston and Kansas City are playing what is essentially an elimination game. The Texans have been red hot coming out of their bye and have the best pass defense in football. Kansas City seemed to be peaking at the right time before falling flat on Thanksgiving (you may remember me declaring the baaaaaack last week). It’s do or die time for both teams. Both teams are good. Vegas did us a favor by giving more than a field goal here. Take the points and strap in for a nail-biter and maybe the game of the regular season.

Tier 3: Heating Up Down South (Season Record: 20-30)

Saints +8.5 over Bucs

Colts -1.5 over Jaguars

Tampa Bay is squeezing the life out of their grip on the NFC South at this point. To their credit, they have survived substantial injuries to virtually every consequential offensive player and several defensive players and are still holding onto the lead. I expect them to win this week and continue to cling to that lead, but they can’t really be trusted with a spread like this at this point in the season

Indianapolis and Tampa Bay are both embodying the “.38 special principle.” The Colts seemed primed for the top seed in the AFC, but then they melted down the stretch in Kansas City, Sauce Gardner went down with an injury, and we found out that Daniel Jones is playing through a broken leg. Trevor Lawrence doesn’t have the consistency to constantly pick the scab that is Indy’s pass defense without Sauce and Jonathan Taylor can put the Colts offense on his back this week, but I wouldn’t be so sure that Indianapolis ends the season atop this division.

Tier 4: The Meh Games, a.k.a the AFC North and Friends (Season Record: 26-19-1)

Falcons +7 over Seahawks

Steelers +5.5 over Ravens

Bills -5.5 over Bengals

Broncos -7.5 over Raiders

Seattle traveling across country after blanking a miserable Vikings offense to lay seven points against a Falcons team fresh off a loss to the lowly Jets is a classic setup for the “WTF happened here?” game. Bet Seattle or put them into a tease at your own risk. On paper, Seattle should lay waste to a washed-up Kirk Cousins, even if Drake London comes back. I can’t give you a coherent football argument for the Falcons keeping this game close, but I can tell you that I’ve seen this movie before.

Similarly, Pittsburgh embarrassed itself on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers turned himself into memes that ranged from sick Spongebob Squarepants to Marv from Home Alone. Baltimore has a few extra days rest. However, why on earth would anyone lay this many points with the Ravens? It’s also worth noting that Lamar Jackson missed practice yesterday. If you must bet, hold your nose and take the points.

If Philadelphia’s front seven against the Chargers’ offensive line is the mismatch of the week, James Cook going against the Bengals’ run defense is a close second. Joe Burrow returned last week and inefficiently led Cincy to the win, but outside of his throws to Ja’Marr Chase there were clear signs of rust. He will probably shake that off this week, but I struggle to see a scenario where Josh Allen and James Cook don’t just control the time of possession and the game.

Denver isn’t trustworthy with a spread like this, but Las Vegas’s season is over. They should be aggressively tanking from here on out.

Tier 5: There Are Other Games (Season Record: 23-18-1)

Dolphins -3 over Jets

Commanders +1.5 over Vikings

Titans +3.5 over Browns

The Titans and Dolphins are on the cusp of having their lines move a half-point in their favor, at least on FanDuel, so if you’re going to do the unconscionable at least wait a day to see if you can get an extra half-point. Officially, I’m telling you to neither bet nor watch any of these games. Your wallets and eyeballs will thank you.

Last Week’s Record: 11-4-1

Season Record: 93-99-2

Cover Photo Courtesy of The Detroit News