Maybe it’s because I work this Thanksgiving week. Maybe it’s because my picks record has been the worst since I started doing this. Or, maybe it’s just because I’m out of good Thanksgiving column ideas, but for some reason I’m already thinking about the depressing day after Thanksgiving. You know the feeling. You come downstairs after a day of giving thanks and time with family, open your refrigerator door for some water or a snack, and get punched in the face with stacks upon stacks of leftover food. Here are five ideas for how to put those leftovers to use.

Tier 1: The Friendsgiving Leftover Potluck (Season Record: 7-14)

Chiefs -3 over Cowboys

Bears +7 over Eagles

Some of how this goes depends on where you live and where you spend your thanksgiving. If you’re in a yuppie neighborhood, get all your friends and neighbors together, bring a few leftover dishes and pass them around. If you’re in an older neighborhood, maybe just make a plate for those that either don’t or can’t get to family. My wife and I used to do this for our elderly neighbor when we lived in Richmond. I’m not sure if he ever ate it or even enjoyed it, but I’d like to think I did. If you, like me, have to work on Black Friday then take enough to share at work.

Kansas City is back baby. They stormed back from down 20-9 on Sunday for an emphatic 23-20 win in a game that the Colts couldn’t have tried harder to give away. Here’s the thing though: as someone who had the Colts +3.5 (still hit by the way), it felt inevitable. When Mahomes got the ball down three with just under six minutes, you just knew he was scoring. I’m embracing that feeling and going all in on the Chiefs this week.

Chicago has quietly been playing quality football for at least a month. Philadelphia has, quite loudly, been playing mediocre football for over a month. So tell me, why are the Eagles laying a full touchdown here? This feels like a game where the public hasn’t caught up to the true nature of both teams.

Tier 2: The Leftover Bowl (Season Record: 14-16)

Packers +2.5 over Lions

Bills -3.5 over Steelers

The bowl is a simple concept, but somehow putting the leftovers in a bowl and mashing them all together feels like a different meal than the exact same things discreetly portioned onto a plate. You don’t need me to explain the bowl concept to you but allow me to help you layer it properly: dressing, cranberry sauce, green beans, mac and cheese/mashed potatoes, turkey/ham/turkey and ham. That’s going from base of the bowl to the top. That is the way.

The early Turkey Day game will feature a rematch from the first week of the season. The Packers trounced the Lions and announced their “arrival” as the team to beat in the NFC North. I’m not so sure they’ve carried that mantle well since then, but I like them in this game. Emanuel Wilson stepped in and ran the ball well in Josh Jacobs’ absence on Sunday. Jordan Love hit some big plays, and the offense looks more reliable with Christian Watson back in the lineup. Defensively, Micah Parsons finally seems to be fulfilling what Green Bay brought him there to do. Green Bay’s defensive front wrecked J.J. McCarthy’s world, and Jared Goff has shown the same susceptibility to pressure in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Detroit’s injury-plagued defense let Jameis Winston toy with them for four quarters before locking in to get a critical stop in overtime.

Buffalo is one of many teams who just seems like a complete enigma this season. Just when it seems they are who we thought they were, they get completely shut down by an admittedly good Texans defense. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is not a good team. They needed a superman T.J. Watt play to even be in the game with the Bears, but it was clear throughout how much better Chicago was than Pittsburgh. James Cook can have a big day on this Steelers run defense and that will slow down T.J. Watt and the others trying to put pressure on Josh Allen. If Allen has time to throw, watch out. This should be a big day for the Bills offense.

Tier 3: The Thanksgiving Hot Brown (Season Record: 17-29)

49ers -5.5 over Browns

Texans +4.5 over Colts

Seahawks -10.5 over Vikings

Broncos -6.5 over Commanders

As a current Louisville resident, I must tout the Hot Brown here. If you don’t know, this open-faced sandwich concept is: bread, turkey, mornay, bacon, tomato and broiled to nice and bubbly. It’s called the “Hot Brown” because it was invented at the Brown Hotel in downtown Louisville. Now, post-thanksgiving you already have a host of leftover turkey. You also, if you made your macaroni and cheese correctly, have some leftover bechamel sauce. Fry up some bacon and toss some bread, cheese and tomatoes in the cast iron, toss that baby under the broiler and you’ve got a delicious Black Friday meal.

Don’t get lulled into a false sense of security. Shedeur Sanders was still bad last week. He was better than he was against Baltimore but given that essentially required him to make it through four quarters that’s not really a reason for optimism. That game said so much more about the Raiders’ incompetence than it did about Cleveland. San Francisco has plenty of things that Las Vegas does not: an elite playcaller, a difference maker at running back, a quarterback that isn’t washed up, and a remote sense of ball security. The 49ers defense has been decimated by injury, but I’ll believe that Shedeur can exploit that when I see it.

Some losses are season defining. The Colts stumbling late when they had the Chiefs on the ropes feels like one of those. Indianapolis is on tilt now and Houston is looming with an opportunity to get back in the AFC South race. Also, Houston’s defense is a vicious unit ready to make another difficult day for Daniel Jones.

Seattle lived in the Titans backfield for the majority of the game last week, and yet Cam Ward was able to use his athleticism to find ways to move the football. That’s not a skillset that’s really in J.J. McCarthy’s bag. It’s going to be another long day for “Nine” and a second “soft benching” wouldn’t be the most surprising outcome in this one. Give me the Seahawks in the Sam Darnold Revenge Game…mostly because it isn’t a primetime game.

I still don’t entirely trust Denver with a line this high, but the Commanders are just trying to get to 2026 at this point. Washington’s defense is putrid, so expect the Broncos running game to be able to mitigate a characteristically slow Bo Nix start.

Tier 4: The Thanksgiving Sandwich (Season Record: 24-17-1)

Bengals +7 over Ravens

Titans +6.5 over Jaguars

Chargers -9.5 over Raiders

Giants +7.5 over Patriots

Not as good as the Hot Brown concept, but still a good Black Friday lunch call. If you need extra tips, go watch the “Friends” episode with the “moist maker.” Thank me…or Monica Geller, later.

Baltimore isn’t back. They will probably win a horrible division, but this team is still incredibly flawed. If the Jets offense were a half-step above hopeless, then New York probably wins that game. Fortunately, Cincinnati’s offense, especially with Ja’Marr Chase back from his spitting suspension, is a full step above hopeless.

Cam Ward made some things happen last week despite having no time to throw! He will have more time this week. Tennessee may have jettisoned their primary hindrance to covering spreads, Brian Callahan, and are ready to be a live ‘dog from here on out. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence reminded me how terrifying it is to lay points with him last week. Sometimes it feels like he is actively trying to give games away.

The Raiders are one of the worst football teams I’ve ever had the displeasure of watching. I hate laying this many points with a Chargers’ team that can’t block, but Las Vegas can’t do anything.

It might be time to stop trusting New England with lines this big. They had 11 snaps inside the Bengals’ 5 yard-line last week and came away with 3 points. Need I remind you that Cincinnati’s defense can’t stop a nosebleed? New England is a good football team, but they have flaws, and I worry that they are still a year away from a deep playoff run. I’d feel better betting the Giants here if Jameis were playing, but even with Dart I think the Giants can score enough to keep this closer than the spread says they should.

Tier 5: Turkey Soup (Season Record: 20-18)

Panthers +10.5 over Rams

Bucs -3 over Cardinals

Saints +5.5 over Dolphins

Jets +2.5 over Falcons

My mom used to make a turkey soup with the left-over turkey carcass. Really great way to add some variety to the uses of turkey.

Can we just collectively stop watching the NFC South until Baker Mayfield is completely healthy again? I find it unnerving that I’m backing three of the four NFC South teams this weekend…mitigating it by putting them all here.

Last Week’s Record: 6-8

Season Record: 82-95-1

Cover Photo Courtesy of Getty Images