My high school position coach once told me, “Sam, I don’t have many hobbies…probably because I don’t like doing shit I’m not good at.” I have lots of hobbies. This is one of them, apparently.

Tier 1: Golf (Season Record: 5-12)

Bucs +5.5 over Bills

Eagles -2.5 over Lions

Kevin Kisner disagrees with me on golf’s status as a “hobby.” The way Kiz plays golf and the way I play golf look like completely different activities.

Tampa Bay finally let me down last week and there are some cracks in the façade. The Bucs can’t run the ball. They struggle to defend the pass. These are all things that will make them a tough bet come playoff time, but it’s not playoff time yet. Buffalo is also reeling after falling flat against the lowly Dolphins last week. Dalton Kincaid’s injury removes Josh Allen’s only real safety valve. (Keon Coleman fits the safety valve physical profile, but SV status is earned not given). Khalil Shakir, the only receiver who consistently gets separation for Buffalo, is also on the injury report. The Bills defense also returned to “can’t stop a nosebleed” status last week after one week of competent play. One thing we’ve learned this year is that Baker Mayfield loves a one-score game. That ultimately is what makes this an easy bet for me.

Dan Campbell is catching flack this week for publicly admitting to taking over offensive playcalling duties in last week’s win over the Commanders, throwing John Morton under the bus in the process. It seemed to payoff last week, but that was against the Washington Commanders’ putrid defense. That’s a little like taking credit for the written portion of the group project after getting the okay to use ChatGPT. The Eagles defense is healthy, bolstered by trade deadline additions, and seems to be rounding into form for the stretch run. Playcaller Dan Campbell gets his first true test this week.

Tier 2: Cooking/Baking (Season Record: 12-12)

Texans -5.5 over Titans

Seahawks +3 over Rams

Chiefs -3.5 over Broncos

As someone with a passion for cooking and good food, I would make the case that nourishment is essential to life, so cooking is less a hobby and more a survival skill.

I really missed the Titans on their bye week. Betting against them is one of the most enjoyable experiences of the last two NFL seasons. (Politely disregard the number of occasions I told you the Titans were getting too many points.) Houston rallied back from a massive deficit late with Davis Mills to beat the Jaguars last week, and Sheldon Rankins determination to add the exclamation point touchdown on the last play of the game gave them the cover! Davis Mills remains under center with C.J. Stroud out a second consecutive week, but I’m not sure it’ll matter. Six points might be enough for Houston to cover.

Seahawks-Rams is a true heavyweight fight and there’s a strong chance that the division crown, homefield advantage and a first round bye are all on the line here. Expect this game to have a playoff feel, which means expect it to come down to a field goal. I’m grabbing the points either way here and praying this line doesn’t drop below three.

I get that Denver’s defense is great. I also understand that Bo Nix resurrects himself in the waning moments like The Undertaker at Wrestlemania. I just don’t entirely trust them still. I especially don’t trust them if this turns into a late game duel between Nix and Pat Mahomes. Kansas City has been a little Jekyll and Hyde this year, but their best is still better than anyone else’s in the AFC.

Tier 3: Hiking (Season Record: 13-25)

Patriots -12.5 over Jets

Falcons -3.5 over Panthers

Jaguars +3 over Chargers

49ers -3 over Cardinals

Hiking is great exercise. The other thing about hiking is that you can’t exactly be bad at it. It’s just walking, sometimes with some elevation changes to add difficulty.

New England planted their flag as Kansas City’s top AFC challenger last week. Drake Maye continues to plant his flag as a legitimate MVP candidate, and Treyveon Henderson finally had his breakout, much to patient fantasy owners’ delights, last week. Things are all aces for the Pats right now, and the Jets are just trying to find a quarterback of the future…via a high draft pick.

Atlanta has to get revenge for the pantsing Carolina gave them earlier in the season, right? Right?!?! Rico “Fake Pump” Dowdle and the Panthers running game never really got going against the lowly Saints last week, and there’s ample evidence this team doesn’t travel well…even if it’s only a few miles down I-85.

Picking Jacksonville over the Chargers feels like the first pick this week that I really have to defend, so here it goes. Joe Alt’s injury tips the Los Angeles offensive line situation from precarious to dismal. Jacksonville, if anything, has a nasty front seven. That matchup alone is enough to have concerns betting the Chargers laying three. Add in that they have to travel cross-country for an early kickoff, and you’ve got yourself a live home ‘dog.

I trust San Francisco’s infrastructure more than I trust Arizona’s. I trust Kyle Shanahan and staff to gameplan around their personnel issues (i.e. injury decimation) more than Jonathan Gannon. Marvin Harrison Jr. will miss at least this game recovering from an appendectomy, which means that Robert Saleh can craft a scheme around stopping Trey McBride and daring any other Cardinal to beat them. I would gladly take the bet that no other Cardinal can beat an NFL defense consistently.

Tier 4: Birdwatching (Season Record: 21-16)

Bears +2.5 over Vikings

Packers -7 over Giants

Cowboys -3.5 over Raiders

Birdwatching feels like something that would be absolutely fascinating…to other birdwatchers.

I don’t know what to make of Chicago or Minnesota except that neither of them are very good. On the one hand, Brian Flores is still one of the best defensive coordinators in football and I think he can win the mind game with Caleb Williams. On the other hand, J.J. McCarthy is either still hampered by injury or not ready to start NFL games. Taking the points feels like the safest play here.

Will the Giants get the post-Brian Daboll dead cat bounce? Maybe, but it will have to come after Jaxson Dart’s return to the lineup. Green Bay has become a tough hang. The offense is inconsistent. The defense bends and sometimes breaks. This is a prime get right opportunity for the home stretch, though.

Dallas will obviously be playing with heavy hearts in their first game since the tragic death of Marshawn Kneeland. For purely non-football reasons, I have to back the Cowboys this week. Fortunately, the Raiders’ ineptitude gives me at least one football reason.

Tier 5: Collecting (Season Record: 16-16)

Commanders +2.5 over Dolphins

Steelers -5.5 over Bengals

Browns +7.5 over Ravens

There is a very fine line between collecting and hoarding.

Don’t wake up early to watch the Spain game. The Commanders season has been torpedoed by Jayden Daniels’ bevy of injuries and a defense in freefall. Miami is coming off its best two-game stretch of the year…prime opportunity for a letdown game in a foreign country.

Can we just collectively pretend the AFC North doesn’t exist at this point?

Last Week’s Record: 4-10

Season Record: 67-82

Cover Photo Courtesy of Tampa Bay Buccaneers