So, no one told me the season was gonna go this way. My picks are a joke. My Fanduel account’s broke. My picks are DOA. It’s kinda like I’m stuck in second gear. It hasn’t been my day…or week…or month…or even my year. But, I’m still here for you. Despite having no reason to feel this way, I feel pretty good about this week.

Tier 1: Dancin’ With The Ones That Brung Us (Season Record: 4-11)

Bucs -2.5 over Patriots

Seahawks -6.5 over Cardinals

Sometimes you just need to go back to the things that have worked. Tampa Bay and Seattle have consistently been my best performers of the year, so I’m just putting them in the top spot and not thinking too much about it.

Tampa Bay is coming off a bye and signs are pointing to Bucky Irving returning to the lineup. Drake Maye has elevated the Patriots ceiling but give me MVP Baker at home. Meanwhile, Seattle’s offense is catching up to their stellar defense and the Seahawks really look like a complete team. Kyler Murray is now on injured reserve, but Arizona has kind of been more competitive with Jacoby Brissett in the lineup. I still don’t think Arizona can consistently move the ball on Seattle’s defense.

Tier 2: On Principle (Season Record: 11-10)

Colts -6.5 over Falcons

Panthers -5.5 over Saints

Rams -4.5 over 49ers

Other times picks need to be made on principle.

I’m a little wary about putting a Madrid game this high, but I’ve actually performed well in the European circuit this year. I’m also banking on the principle that no one’s ever as good or bad as they were the week prior. Daniel Jones kinda looked like New York Daniel Jones last week, but he’d banked enough good games in this offense that I’m willing to accept that as a one-off. Plus, Atlanta is untrustworthy away from home, and this is the furthest they’ll be away from the Peach State all season.

New Orleans is actively seeking the number one pick. I will gladly be betting against them as much as possible. Carolina isn’t awful. They might even be considered decent at home. They also finally have a decent rushing attack with the two-headed monster of Chuba Hubbard and Rico “Two Pump” Dowdle.

Los Angeles is too good not to split with this depleted San Francisco team. I’ve given up trying to guess if Brock Purdy is going to play or if we’ll get another week of Mac Jones, who hasn’t been bad. Regardless, the Rams offense is operating at full force and can cook against an injury-devastated San Fran defense.

Tier 3: On Busines (Season Record: 12-22)

Texans -1.5 over Jaguars

Browns -2.5 over Jets

Steelers +3 over Chargers

Packers -2.5 over Eagles

Time to stand on business.

The Jaguars and Jets are two of the least serious professional sports organizations of my lifetime. They are veritable clown shows year after year and regime after regime. We will not be betting on them this week.

Side note: I fully recognize that the Cleveland Browns very much fit within that conversation too, but Kevin Stefanski is the adult in the room in this coaching matchup. Also, I would never call Myles Garrett a clown to his face…and I’m no keyboard warrior.

Second side note: I also refuse to believe that Jacksonville can beat the Texans twice in a season…even if Houston turns to Davis Mills this week.

Backing Pittsburgh this week violates the same principle that I used to bet Indianapolis in the above tier, but Joe Alt got hurt again last week and will miss the rest of the season. Without Alt, the Chargers offensive line has been a saloon door. We saw last week what Pittsburgh’s pass rush can do to a quarterback with no protection. This feels like a rare NFL week where we might get to see a replay of the week before.

The Monday night game was one of the game’s I struggled with the most this week, but I really think I like the Packers at Lambeau. Philadelphia is coming off a much-needed bye, while Green Bay just lost at home to the Panthers. Intuitively, that means the Eagles should be the play. Sometimes counterintuition is the right business decision.

Tier 4: You Can’t Make Me (Season Record: 20-14)

Raiders +8.5 over Broncos

Bears -4.5 over Giants

Bills -9.5 over Dolphins

The title may seem childish, but the thought stands. Vegas, Fanduel, Draft Kings, whichever arbitrary sportsbook you use as the “they” when referring to the oddsmakers, none of you can make me do some of these things.

You can’t make me bet the Broncos with a two-score spread. I remember the London game.

You can’t make me bet the Nabers-less, Skattebo-less Giants. I made that mistake last week.

You can’t make me bet the Dolphins in active fire sale mode. Even at home.

Tier 5: Hold Your Nose…or Just Stay Away (Season Record: 16-14)

Vikings +4.5 over Ravens

Commanders +8.5 over Lions

Minnesota and Baltimore both showed signs of life last week with their starting quarterback’s returning to the lineup. I still don’t trust either one of them, which means I’d gravitate toward taking the points.

I’ve given up trying to figure out the Lions. They’ll either win this game by 30 or lose outright. Flip a coin…or just live bet it when you see which way it’s going.

Last Week’s Record: 6-8

Season Record: 63-72

Cover Photo Courtesy of Deadline