After a few weeks of clawing back toward .500, last week it all came tumbling down again. If week-to-week NFL gambling isn’t the ultimate trick or treat, I’m not sure what is. In the spirit of the season, here are my week 9 picks, along with some topical sports Halloween costumes for your parties and/or trick or treating needs.

Tier 1: Albanian Bruce (Season Record: 3-10)

Colts -3 over Steelers

Seahawks -3 over Commanders

Maybe it’s a little recency bias, but I think dressing up as one of the codenamed people named in the “Operation Royal Flush” sting is one of the funniest sports-adjacent Halloween costume. The easiest, and probably funniest, is to be “Albanian Bruce”. This guy allegedly provided security at these rigged security games. All you really need to pull this off is a security guard costume and a name tag/badge that reads “Albanian Bruce.” Real ones will get it.

Indianapolis had a near hiccup against the Cardinals a few weeks ago, but otherwise they have been a freight train straight from the hell that is the AFC South all season. Jonathan Taylor is threatening to steal the “best fantasy player” belt. Daniel Jones has evolved into a good(?) NFL quarterback. This team feels like a straight bet for the time being, plus the vaunted Pittsburgh defense has proven to be an overpaid sieve for most of the year. Expect the Colts to continue rolling this week.

True story: I had a fraternity brother in college who legitimately thought that the Seahawks and (at the time Redskins) Commanders were cross-town rivals.

Seattle has one of the best defenses in football. Marcus Mariota has been decent, but Kansas City was able to keep him under wraps after the opening script. Jayden Daniels returned to practice, but even if he plays, I don’t think we can trust that he will be completely healthy. Plus, Terry McLaurin is back out of the lineup after returning on Monday night.

Tier 2: Philly Karen (Season Record: 11-7)

Patriots -5.5 over Falcons

Lions -8.5 over Vikings

Cowboys -2.5 over Cardinals

Philly Karen is still one of the funniest things to happen in sports recently, and a great Halloween costume. You definitely get bonus points if you fully commit to the haircut. Even more bonus points if you harass children and demand they give you their candy because “it was yours first.” Point deductions if you actually vamoose with the poor kid’s Halloween candy though.

Drake Maye is rolling right now as the hottest quarterback in football. Meanwhile, Atlanta is fresh off getting blown out by the Miami Dolphins, albeit in a game they were required to start Kirk Cousins. If this game were in Atlanta, this would be a “be careful” game, but in Foxborough betting the Patriots is the play. This defense can stop the run and Mike Vrabel inherited that Bill Belichick (pre-Jordon and UNC but more on that later) trait of taking away team’s primary options. There is a world where New England’s run support-first linebacking corps struggles in coverage with Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts, but I don’t see the Falcons being good enough or disciplined enough to pick that scab over and over and over again.

Detroit is just good. The defense is depleted but finds ways to step up. The offense is just a nightmare to bet against. Jared Goff plays like peak Chris Paul distributing the ball to his teammates in ways to put them in the best places to succeed. Brian Flores is the best defensive coordinator in the NFL, but this defense has proven itself vulnerable to the best offenses. With the current Viking quarterback situation, they will struggle to keep pace.

Dallas really disappointed me last week in what was Dak Prescott’s first bad game of the season. For now, I’m willing to call that an outlier and the Cardinals defense is an optimal one for a “bounce back” game. Kyler Murray is on track to return this week, but the spread is low enough I’m not sure it matters. If you won’t take the Cowboys, then bet the over instead.

Tier 3: Cam Skattebo and Jaxson Dart (Season Record: 11-20)

Giants +2.5 over 49ers

Broncos +1.5 over Texans

Chargers -8.5 over Titans

What a bummer that we lost Cam Skattebo and his hybrid golden retriever/WWE wrestler energy for the season last week. We need to celebrate the breath of fresh air that was Cam’s rookie season. Extra props if you find a bromance partner to also dress up as Jaxson Dart. Extra extra props if you find a way to make this a couple’s costume. The costume itself is rather simple: wear New York Giants gear, the Jaxson Dart character needs the eye black, and the two of you just have to channel WWE tag team/Crush from Finding Nemo energy all night.

Speaking of the Giants, even though they lost Skattebo to a horrific injury last week, I think they can keep things tight with San Fran at home. Brock Purdy may return, but that doesn’t change the fact that San Francisco can’t rush the passer and Dart has already proven adept at making good things happen when allowed to extend plays.

Denver finally looked like the team, particularly the defense, that many of the “experts” thought they’d be coming into the season. They made life difficult for Dak Prescott and Bo Nix strung together four decent quarters for the first time this season. Clearly Vegas is treating them as a “looked a little too good last week” team based on this line, but I’m not so certain Houston didn’t look a little too good either. C.J. Stroud had a strong game, even without Nico Collins, but that was mostly because he had all day to throw the ball. Denver will not afford him such opportunities. The Texans cannot run the ball, which means Denver will be able to push Stroud into obvious passing downs and pin their ears back and come after him. That doesn’t seem like a recipe for success to me. Houston’s defense, to be fair, will try to do something similar to Bo Nix, but the difference is Denver’s running game is more trustworthy than Nick Chubb and Woody Marks.

Tennessee is one of the worst professional football teams I’ve ever seen. They are completely helpless. Joe Alt returned last week for the Chargers and their offensive line play improved significantly. Funny how that works.

Tier 4: Bennett Scheffler (Season Record: 18-13)

Ravens -7.5 over Dolphins

Bengals +3 over Bears

Bills +1.5 over Chiefs

Adults dressing up as babies is a classic Halloween costume. Bonus points if you add Bennett Scheffler’s poop stain to the costume. Negative points if you use actual poop.

Lamar Jackson returns this week and gives the offense the shot in the arm that the defense apparently got last week. Miami is still terrible despite what happened in Atlanta last week. Don’t get cute. Just bet on Lamar.

Cincinnati had an epic meltdown that obscures the fact that they comfortably led the Jets, as any NFL team should, for a significant portion of last week’s game. While the meltdown is pretty concerning, I think you’re getting value here. Joe Flacco has proven able to push the ball downfield to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals have moved the ball on better defenses than Chicago’s since acquiring Flacco and I expect that to continue.

Buffalo always seems to beat Kansas City in the regular season. This is like the Chiefs ultimate rope-a-dope. Let Buffalo win a tight one in the regular season. Give them hope. Then let them choke on it. Ed Oliver got hurt again last week, which is a huge bummer, but Oliver wasn’t the only defensive lineman who returned for the Bills and it showed. Three weeks ago, Kansas City wins this game going away, but now I’m less sure. Particularly in the regular season. Particularly in Buffalo.

Tier 5: Bill Belichick and Jordon Hudson (Season Record: 14-13)

Packers -13.5 over Panthers

Rams -14.5 over Saints

Raiders +3 over Jaguars

Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift is so 2024. In 2025, Bill and Jordon are the Halloween couple’s costume. Bonus points is Jordon cuts off and speaks for Bill all night.

The Packers and Rams should win comfortably this week, but these are massive lines. I would consider betting Carolina if the game were in Charlotte and I knew Bryce Young were healthy. Young might play, but in Green Bay I still like the Packers.

Something about me just can’t quit the Raiders. This is probably a personality flaw on my part. I just think this might be the “what happened here” game of the week. Jacksonville isn’t that good.

Last Week’s Record: 4-9

Season Record: 57-64

Cover Photo Courtesy of Marc Lebryk/Imagn Images