Listen, chances are if you’re reading this then you’re as much of a degenerate as I am. Weekends in the fall are meant for consuming football and beer, plus or minus losing a little money on the side. However, some of us are also trying to be family men. Sometimes we have to set aside our basest impulses, swallow our pride and enjoy a fall day with our spouses and/or children. Of all the weekends to choose, this isn’t the worst. Several teams are on a bye and there is a relative dearth of pivotal matchups. I’m not saying don’t watch football this weekend, but this I am saying this isn’t the worst weekend to sacrifice in the name of keeping your marriage intact.

Tier 1: Oktoberfest (Season Record: 3-9)

Cowboys +3.5 over Broncos

If you’re going to miss out on a day of football, spending it eating sausages and eating beer is a decent alternative. Cheers!

I think it’s high time to reverse course on how we feel about the Dallas Cowboys. Their defense can’t really stop a nosebleed, but Dak Prescott has this offense rolling. With a healthy CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, this passing game is right up there with the best in the league. On the flip side, Denver’s defense hasn’t been the juggernaut it was last year, and Bo Nix is showing significant signs of regression in year two. I know he led a wild comeback last week, but the fact that he needed to is cause for serious concern. Plus, the x-factor is Brandon Aubrey playing at altitude. Dallas might live in field goal range for the entire game.

Tier 2: Fall Foliage Tour (Season Record: 10-6)

49ers +1.5 over Texans

Bucs -4.5 over Saints

A nice drive through the countryside to look at the changing leaves and get a breath of fresh fall air isn’t the worst way to spend a Sunday afternoon. Not the best, but definitely not the worst.

San Francisco bounced back in a big way at home last week. When it looked like the wheels might fall off due to injury for a second consecutive year, Christian McCaffrey did what superstars do. He put the team on his back and he willed them to victory. George Kittle’s return helped too. I do worry a little with this pick with San Francisco traveling this week, as opposed to playing at home, but I’m almost all the way out on Houston at this point.

Just when I tried to through the Saints a bone, they stab me in the back. Here’s my weekly reminder that New Orleans is, in fact, a very bad football team. Tampa Bay’s injury woes continued last week when Mike Evans was lost for the season after a terrifying injury but expect Baker to right the ship this week (pun semi-intended).

Tier 3: Apple Picking (Season Record: 10-18)

Vikings +3.5 over Chargers

Bengals -6.5 over Jets

Chiefs -11.5 over Commanders

Apples are superior to pumpkins in every way. They taste better. They’re easier to pick. The pie version is better. This is just the right choice.

Minnesota isn’t a good offensive team, and quarterback problems are a big reason why. The theory is being floated that J.J. McCarthy’s injury is really an “injury” and a way to bench him without raising alarm bells. I’m not sure I buy that theory, but either way the inability to consistently get the ball in the hands of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson is a big concern. However, the Chargers are kind of a mess too, and I’m buying the Vikings defense with Blake Cashman back and Brian Flores continuing to call the shots. The Chargers offensive line is a mess, and Flores will be licking his chops on Thursday night. That keeps this game close.

The Jets are in the “owner openly criticizing the starting quarterback and then the replacement quarterback immediately getting injured” phase of things right now…I will not be betting them.

Kansas City might be all the way back and Washington will be without Jayden Daniels. That’s a recipe for a Monday night blowout.

Tier 4: Pumpkin Patch Visit (Season Record: 17-10)

Panthers +7.5 over Bills

Bears +6.5 over Ravens

Eagles -7.5 over Giants

Steelers +3 over Packers

Pumpkins are fine. They just aren’t apples. See above.

I was all over putting Carolina +7.5 in tier one when I first saw this line. But, and this is a big but, there’s a chance that Buffalo’s defense could look different than the past few weeks. Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi return from suspension this week, and Ed Oliver returns from injury. That caused me to bump this down a few tiers, but I still like the Panthers here, especially in Charlotte.

Chicago didn’t exactly light the world on fire last week, but they found a way to keep winning. Baltimore is only laying this many points because of the name brand at this point. That’s not a tax worth paying. Maybe Lamar will return to his MVP caliber ways this week and make me look dumb, but unless he is going to play cornerback too, I worry Jackson alone won’t be enough.

Philadelphia won’t lose to the Giants twice in a month. The offense got some things going last week and New York suffered one of the most deflating losses imaginable.

This is much more a fade of Green Bay than an endorsement of Pittsburgh. Also, Aaron Rodgers may say it’s not a revenge game, but it’s a revenge game.

Tier 5: Haunted Hayride (Season Record: 13-11)

Browns +7 over Patriots

Falcons -7.5 over Dolphins

Colts -14.5 over Titans

I don’t go for anything “haunted.” It just isn’t my thing, much like these lines. I’ll just stay away.

I trust Atlanta at home to an extent. I trust them anywhere more than I trust whatever the Dolphins are doing right now. Honestly, watching Miami play football is pretty close to a horror movie at this point.

Same with the Titans.

Cleveland’s defense is competitive. New England might make me look silly, but I think Cleveland’s defense at least keeps them in this game.

Last Week’s Record: 9-6

Season Record: 53-55

Cover Photo Courtesy of Matthew Emmons/USA TODAY Sports