After what seemed like an endless summer, there was finally a little nip in the air this morning. It smelt a little crisper. The leaves look a little more colorful. As the days grow shorter and cooler, hopefully the enigma that has been this NFL season becomes easier to solve. Last week was promising, but let’s not get overconfident.

Tier 1: Buying the Hype (Season Record: 2-7)

Lions +2.5 over Chiefs

Colts -6.5 over Cardinals

Detroit and Indianapolis are two of the surprise teams of the season. Many, me included, expected the Lions to take a step back with the losses of both coordinators and two offensive line staples in the offseason. Indianapolis, on the other hand, had been a disaster and figured to continue to be a disaster with Giants and Vikings castoff Daniel Jones winning the quarterback job from Anthony Richardson. Despite expectations, things have been business as usual with Dan Campbell’s Lions and the Colts have been the surprise team of the season through the first five weeks.

Kansas City lost a heartbreaker on Monday night to drop to 2-3 for the season. Now they have to play a Lions team that always goes for the jugular on a short week in primetime. That’s a tough spot for anyone to be in.

Similarly, Arizona lost in one of the more bizarre and embarrassing fashions imaginable to the lowly Titans last week. Plus, there’s the locker room issue of Jonathan Gannon being fined for his public dressing down of Emari Demarcado. While Demercado committed one of the cardinal (no pun intended) sins of ball carrying fumbling as he was crossing the goal line for what likely would have been a game sealing touchdown, that kind of behavior is inappropriate for a head coach. Ordinarily this would be a prime spot to look for a bounce back week, but with vibes at an all-time low and a poor matchup with the Colts rushing attack I don’t see it happening for Arizona.

Tier 2: Quarterbacks To Believe In (Season Record: 6-5)

Patriots -3.5 over Saints

Seahawks +1.5 over Jaguars

Bucs -3 over 49ers

Some people argue that quarterback play is the only thing that matters in the NFL. While that’s not true, it is a critical piece of the puzzle. Drake Maye is emerging as a legitimate NFL quarterback, which is an example of the importance of having a real head coach and infrastructure in place. Similarly, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield have become good NFL quarterbacks after earning the “bust” label earlier in their careers. Maybe the Jets and Browns were the respective problems and not Darnold and Mayfield? Quarterback play is one of the most important pieces but putting that quarterback in the right situation is equally as critical.

New Orleans made me look dumb last week for suggesting that they were the worst team in the NFL, but let’s be honest the Giants handed them that game on a silver platter. Five turnovers in five straight possessions, all of which took place in Saints territory. New Orleans is not good, and I don’t expect them to receive a gift for a second consecutive week.

Trevor Lawrence had the game-winning touchdown of Chris Berman’s dreams on Monday night stumblin’ and bumblin’ and rumblin’ on one of the more bizarre scramble touchdowns I’ve ever seen. Jacksonville is a competent team, despite that highlight making them look like they are just failing upwards, but Seattle’s defense is one of the best units in the NFL.

Tampa Bay is the team that I just can’t quit. I bet on them to make the playoffs in the preseason. I have bet on them every week. I made heavy Emeka Egbuka fantasy investments, that have paid off. They are the most entertaining team in the league by far. I really wish this spread would drop to -2.5 because the Bucs have proven that they will make every game close, but I like Tampa Bay at home.

Tier 3: London Rules (Season Record: 7-13)

Broncos -7 over Jets

Chargers -4.5 over Dolphins

Commanders -4.5 over Bears

London rules: cover your ass.

Aaron Glenn’s job shouldn’t be in jeopardy yet, but his assurance that these aren’t the same ol’ Jets is starting to ring a little hollow. New York wasn’t competitive against a mediocre Dallas team last week and it’s starting to look like these might be the Jets we’ve always known. Denver’s defense stepped up in the second half against Philly last week, and while Bo Nix has had a shaky sophomore campaign thus far the Jets defense, once a frightening unit, hasn’t offered up much resistance to anyone this season.

The Justin Herbert haters are starting to come back above ground after another tough game for the Chargers’ quarterback. Part of the problem is Justin having to employ Moscow rules (watch your back) since the injury to Joe Alt two weeks ago. However, Miami’s pass rush is a paper tiger, and the rest of the defense is just bad. This is a bounce back opportunity for Herbert and then Alt should be back from injury.

Tyrique Stevenson failed to employ London or Moscow rules at the end of last year’s Bears vs. Commanders instant classic. Fortunately for Stevenson, I don’t expect Washington to need a Hail Mary this year. Washington has overcome early injuries to Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin and Austin Ekeler, but continued to be an offensive force. Since the Thursday night loss to Green Bay in week two, Washington has seemed to find its stride again. The defense is vulnerable, and Caleb Williams might be a viable fantasy starter this week, but I still like Washington more in this one.

Tier 4: Hear Me Out (Season Record: 13-6)

Giants +7.5 over Eagles

Browns +5.5 over Steelers

Cowboys -3.5 over Panthers

Falcons +4.5 over Bills

At first blush, these picks may all seem a little…huh? But just hear me out alright.

The Giants are coming off a bad loss to the Saints in a game they completely gave away. Again, five turnovers in five straight possessions. Jaxson Dart did show some flashes in that game though. Cam Skattebo, who did have one fumble returned for touchdown, is a dog. New York’s pass rush is decent. There is a scenario where Saquon Barkley jump starts his season with a monster day on the ground against his old team, but that’s virtually the only way I see Philly covering. This seems set up for Philly to win closer than they should…yet again.

Cleveland seemed to double down on their commitment to Dillon Gabriel this week when they traded Joe Flacco to the division-rival Bengals. I’m not sure if this makes me feel better about the Browns or not, but their defense is good enough to keep them competitive with a Steelers team that isn’t as good as their record indicates.

Historically, Carolina has given Dallas problems. This isn’t history class though. This is more like Divination, which means we’re only concerned with the future. Dak Prescott is having a Comeback Player of the Year-caliber season to start, even more impressive considering he’s been doing it without CeeDee Lamb. This Cowboys team still has plenty of deficiencies, especially on defense, but Carolina isn’t the team to exploit those deficiencies.

Originally, I had Buffalo to cover this, but Atlanta plays well at home and are coming off a bye. Furthermore, Buffalo’s defense has given up a bunch of yards and points and is still operating at less than 100% with myriad starters injured. Expect a shootout here, and I think the Falcons will score enough to keep themselves in the game late.

Tier 5: The Stay Aways (Season Record: 9-9)

Ravens +7.5 over Rams

Raiders -5.5 over Titans

Bengals +14.5 over Packers

Don’t bet any of these.

Baltimore seems to be rapidly approaching rock bottom, but for the sake of mere pride I expect them to be more competitive than last week. Tennessee is still the worst team in the NFL and this is a classic overreaction to the Titans winning and the Raiders looking horrible last week. Both teams are terrible though, so avoid betting it and feeling any obligation to watch it. Cincinnati showed signs of life in the second half last week and traded for Joe Flacco yesterday. More for reasons of the former than the latter, I think Cincinnati scores late to cover.

Last Week’s Record: 11-3

Season Record: 37-41

Cover Photo Courtesy of Ed Zurga/AP