It seems only fitting that a spy-themed column should start with a confession, and it won’t be the only one. This column theme has been in the works since before the season started. I’ve just been waiting for the right time to break out the idea. The first few weeks seemed to present their own themes, but this feels as good a time as any to dive into the spy theme. Slow Horses, my favorite show on television right now, just returned. I’m nearly finished with Tim Weiner’s second book on the CIA, “The Mission.” Plus, I feel like I’m going to have to start doing some serious sleuthing to figure out how to fix my abysmal record to start the season. My spy era is in full bloom.

Tier 1: George Smiley (Season Record: 2-5)

Giants +1.5 over Saints

Chargers -2.5 over Commanders

John le Carre’s George Smiley is the thinking man’s spy character. He doesn’t have the looks or hand-to-hand combat skills of other spy characters, but he always feels in control of the situation. He may not be the most obviously cool spy. The more time you spend with him, though, the more you realize that he is the coolest of all spy characters.

My temptation here is to just remind you that the Saints have no business being favored in any NFL football game this year, but that would be too simple. New York will desperately miss Malik Nabers and that will be a huge problem for them going forward, but the emergences of Cam Skattebo and Jaxson Dart provide enough firepower to outduel a punchless offense like New Orleans. Furthermore, the Giants’ front seven will be the best unit on the field Sunday, and the best pass rush Spencer Rattler has seen this year. I expect this to be a low-scoring affair and Rattler to walk off the field 0-11 as an NFL starter.

The red-hot Los Angeles Chargers losing to the desperate-for-answers New York Giants was one of the most surprising results of last Sunday, but there are several reasons why that shouldn’t be an automatic fade of the Chargers this week. For starters, the West Coast team traveling to the Eastern time zone for an early Sunday kickoff is a real phenomenon, one that Los Angeles won’t have to deal with as they return home this weekend. It was also Jaxson Dart’s first NFL start making the film preparation a challenge, but Jesse Minter seemed to figure him out as things went along. He won’t have the same film deficit preparing for Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota this week. It seems like Jayden Daniels will return, but he can’t be 100% healthy yet. Terry McLaurin is trying to work his way back from injury too. Meanwhile, Washington’s defense has given up explosive plays to Geno Smith and Michael Penix, if Justin Herbert’s performances from the first two weeks of the season are a new baseline then he’s in for a monster day.

Tier 2: James Bond (Season Record: 4-5)

Panthers +1.5 over Dolphins

Jaguars +3 over Chiefs

James Bond is probably the classic spy character. He’s endured multiple generations and actors. He has his own martini. The Vesper is my preferred martini, in fact. Smiley might have the coolest demeanor of any spy character, but James Bond is probably in the top five names that come to mind when anyone thinks of cool.

I’m already regretting feeling this good about betting the Panthers on Sunday, but it just doesn’t feel right to bet the Dolphins. Carolina is neither as good as the team that beat the Falcons 30-0, nor as bad as the team that lost 42-13 to the Patriots. That’s NFL 101. I still think the team that’s somewhere in the middle can beat a Tyreek Hill-less Miami. The Dolphins pass rush, full of name players, hasn’t been a strength and I’m not sure the offensive line is good enough to dominate even a bad run defense like Carolina’s.

You can call me a hypocrite for heavily betting the Ravens last week and not changing my tune after the Chiefs took their lunch money on national television if you like, but that game said much more about Baltimore than it did Kansas City. I might feel stupid when Trevor Lawrence is trying to mount a comeback down two touchdowns next Monday, but this still feels like a value for a team getting points at home.

Tier 3: Jackson Lamb (Season Record: 5-12)

Rams -7.5 over 49ers

Colts -6.5 over Raiders

Broncos +4.5 over Eagles

Jackson Lamb is my favorite character on TV right now. Sure, he’s disgusting and irreverent and crude, but he clearly strikes awe and fear into the hearts of all who know him. Mick Herron’s character is like a wild cross between Shrek and Rorschach from The Watchmen and Sterling Archer. Plus, Gary Oldman’s portrayal is just *chef’s kiss*.

It was announced today that San Francisco will be suiting up tomorrow without Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall or Jauan Jennings. This team already looked discombobulated with a full offense against Jacksonville last week. The Rams pass rush will make life hard for Mac Jones, especially without the 49ers best field-stretching options.

It’s time to start buying on the Colts. In fact, it’s past time. I’m slow on the uptake here, but better late than never. Watching the Raiders is a painful operation. Ashton Jeanty flashed the potential that made him a top 10 pick last week, but the offensive line is so bad that he can’t possibly run with any efficiency. That will get even worse without Kolton Miller at left tackle. Maxx Crosby is another singular game-wrecking force, but unfortunately any decent team can throw double teams and slide protections at him and force the other ten defensive players to make plays…they usually can’t.

Philadelphia has to lose again eventually, right? The Eagles have been flirting with losses in multiple games this year, and the offensive roller coaster is giving all of us whiplash. You and I completed the same number of passes as Jalen Hurts did in the second half against the Bucs last week, but the offense put up 21 points in the first half (augmented by 10 points from the special teams) so it didn’t end up mattering. I don’t fully trust Denver’s offense, but the defense is good enough to muck up Philly’s offense for a full four quarters, as opposed to the two that the Rams and Bucs each mustered.

Tier 4: Ethan Hunt (Season Record: 9-6)

Texans -1.5 over Ravens

Cowboys -2.5 over Jets

Bucs +3 over Seahawks

Patriots +8.5 over Bills

Confession #2: I’ve never seen a Mission Impossible movie start-to-finish. Fortunately, I grew up in the cable TV era, so I’ve got the gist. Ethan Hunt is essentially a vehicle for Tom Cruise to do a bunch of his own stunts with a catchy theme song. Cool.

Houston and Baltimore square up for what is essentially a “Loser Leaves Town” match this Sunday. Unfortunately for the Ravens, they will be doing it without Lamar Jackson. Barring Derrick Henry going full hero made and just gashing an excellent Texans defense, expect Houston to swallow Cooper Rush whole. The Texans offensive woes persist, but Baltimore’s defense seems like a great opportunity for a “get right” game at this point in the season.

Dallas has proven me wrong a few times this year. Even without CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys moved the ball at will against the Packers after a blocked extra point defibrillated the team back to life. The once-vaunted Jets defense has not been the stellar unit we expected coming into the year, and I like Dak Prescott’s statistically impressive season to continue this week.

I can’t quit Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield is the most exhilarating football experience of my weekend. He did throw his first interception last week, but the placement on that 77-yard touchdown to Emeka Egbuka was pure wizardry. Seattle and Tampa Bay both have strong defenses, so betting the under seems like a good play here too and I like the game to be close.

Buffalo just isn’t equipped to blow team out at this point in the season. They have too many injuries and suspensions on defense to prevent teams coming in the back door for the cover. Admittedly, I’ll be sweating bullets when I’m counting on Drake Maye to lead a touchdown drive when New England is down two touchdowns late, but that feels better than watching Josh Allen and James Cook grind out the clock with a 4-point lead as I hopelessly and helplessly watch.

Tier 5: Jason Bourne (Season Record: 6-9)

Titans +8.5 over Cardinals

Vikings -3.5 over Browns

Lions -10.5 over Bengals

Tennessee will cover a spread eventually, right? Right? Vegas is just taunting us at this point, and I continue to take the bait. Did the Vikings just stay in Great Britain? That seems like the right thing to do. Anyway, Brian Flores is going to wreck Dillon Gabriel’s world on Sunday morning. Detroit looks like a juggernaut again and Cincinnati is a lost cause.

Confession #3: I’ve also never seen a Bourne movie start-to-finish. Again, cable has given me the gist though. Amnesia seems like a dealbreaker for being a CIA agent right? I mean if I can’t get a pilot’s license just because of my colorblindness, it seems like a guy who can’t remember what happened last week shouldn’t be a spy. Or maybe I’m just the idiot. My picks so far would support that…

Last Week’s Record: 6-10

Season Record: 26-38

Cover Photo Courtesy of Giants.com