I’m going to guess that you already know where I stand on the legalization of sports gambling. If you’re reading this, there’s a pretty strong chance I know where you stand. Until Sunday, I didn’t really have many strong arguments against it, but after Sunday I have one. The way that Rams and Bucs bettors (of which I was both) lost their units on Sunday has to fall under an eighth amendment rights violation of somehow. Anyway, I got killed in myriad ways last week, much of which I can only blame myself for, but as “The Gambler” himself put it: “You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em…” We’re gonna ignore the second part of that line.

Tier 1: I’m a Believer (Season Record: 1-4)

Seahawks -1.5 over Cardinals

Ravens -2.5 over Chiefs

For 59 minutes and 58 seconds, the Rams seemed like a lock to get at least one top tier win for us last week, but then Jordan Davis just had to run the blocked field goal back instead of just falling down. I know I keep harping on this, but it will bother me the rest of the season. Time to dust ourselves off and try again though.

Seattle became the next in what looks like it will be a long line of teams to embarrass the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. Frankly, the game was over by the time the latest of the 1 P.M. games finished. Meanwhile, Arizona let one slip away against a vulnerable 49ers team. This seems like an awful matchup for the Cardinals though, particularly in light of James Conner’s season-ending injury. Arizona will have trouble consistently moving the ball against a nasty Seahawks defense. Arizona’s defense is decent, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba is emerging as a top-flight wide receiver and Seattle’s offense has flashed more big play potential through three weeks.

My biggest concern with Baltimore, really over the last three seasons, is that the sum is lesser than the parts. The Ravens have the best roster in the NFL, but for whatever reason that doesn’t translate into consistent dominance. At times they look unstoppable, others they look inept. The defense can be so good and then get absolute gashed by an, admittedly, great rushing attack. If Baltimore is ever going to get over the hump and win a Super Bowl in the Lamar Jackson-John Harbaugh, they need to figure out how to get the most out of their extensive talent advantages. This could be a classic opportunity for a “How did Pat Mahomes do it again?” win pulled from the deepest recesses of his colon, but that doesn’t seem like the safe bet based on what we know the Ravens can be and what the Chiefs have proven they are.

Tier 2: Time To Rebound (Season Record: 3-4)

Rams -3.5 over Colts

Packers -6.5 over Cowboys

The Los Angeles Rams got robbed last week. They also failed to jump out to a bigger lead in the first half, when they had ample opportunities to score touchdowns and settled for field goals, but there were a series of dubious calls that must be frustrating to watch on replay. However, they also showed that they belong. This team can play with anybody. A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith got separation late, but the Rams’ secondary, the least heralded unit of the defense, held their own and even had the upper hand for much of that game. Matthew Stafford didn’t have his best game, but the Rams have demonstrated enough to have confidence that they can unleash a dynamic attack on offense. Meanwhile, I’ve faded the Colts every week and they have done nothing but jump out to a 3-0 start, both in real life and against the spread. Jonathan Taylor looks like the fantasy stud that he was pre-injury again, and that’s a worry in this game, but I am still going to take some more convincing before I buy any Danny Dimes’ stock

This might be an overreaction, but the Dallas Cowboys made Caleb Williams look like pre-McAfee Aaron Rodgers on Sunday. That’s a problem. This Cowboys team had a dead cat bounce on opening week in the wake of the Micah Parsons trade, but they just aren’t very good. The defense stinks. The offense will struggle without CeeDee Lamb. I know the Packers lost to the Browns last week but expect a big bounce back this week for Matt LaFleur and company.

Tier 3: Why Can’t I Stop Myself? (Season Record: 4-8)

Titans +7.5 over Texans

Steelers +2.5 over Vikings

Raiders -1.5 over Bears

Jets +2.5 over Dolphins

Bucs +3.5 over Eagles

Here is a collection of teams that I just can’t seem to quit. I know this is a problem. I still can’t stop.

Tennessee and Houston are actually both teams that I haven’t been able to quit this year. I have bet on both three weeks in a row…0-6. One of them has to cover this week, and the smart money is on the Titans. I know their coach is a dunce, but Cam Ward has shown flashes despite that. Meanwhile, would you lay 7.5 points with Houston against anybody? Until the Texans can prove that they can eclipse the 20-point mark, they have no business being favored by this many.

Minnesota beat the brakes off the Bengals last week, but what a perfect opportunity for a letdown game! The Vikings defense is still excellent, but Aaron Rodgers can play mental chess with Brian Flores unlike any other quarterback. Carson Wentz looked fine against a toothless Bengals defense last week, but I don’t expect that to hold up against a competent NFL defense. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t as good as commonly advertised, but they are good enough to give Carson Wentz problems. It’s also our first Europe game of the season. Get up early and expect some weirdness!

Chicago, particularly Caleb Williams but aside from whatever that fleaflicker toss was, looked like a real NFL team against Dallas last week. What a perfect opportunity for a letdown game! Geno Smith hasn’t been a major revelation for the Raiders’ quarterback room yet, and Ashton Jeanty is already drawing Trent Richardson comparisons, not a good thing, but I can’t give up on this team yet. Pete Carroll and Geno are professionals, and I still think they figure some things out.

Of the two New York teams, the Jets are easily the closed to competency right now. Tyrod Taylor did a fine job filling in for Justin Fields last week, horrible pick six aside, and the Jets’ special teams tried their damnedest to steal one from the Bucs last week. New York isn’t the first team to get burned by a Baker Mayfield two-minute drive and they won’t be the last. Meanwhile, Miami was more competitive with Buffalo than they should have been last week, but that’s partially because the Bills defense was walking wounded. I still think the Dolphins are very bad…the Jets might just be bad.

Philadelphia was fortunate to cover last week, as we’ve already discussed. They have a better roster than Tampa Bay, but they aren’t “favored by more than a field goal on the road” better. Tampa Bay, much like its leader, quarterback and spirit animal Baker Mayfield, is just a scrappy team. They are in every game they play, and Baker is rapidly ascending the “guy I want with the ball in his hands with the game on the line” power rankings. The Mike Evans injury hurts, but that might be mitigated by Chris Godwin’s return and Emeka Egbuka is emerging as a star already. The Bucs keep this close, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they won it outright.

Tier 4: Throwing Darts (Season Record: 6-5)

Giants +6.5 over Chargers

Falcons +1.5 over Commanders

49ers -3.5 over Jaguars

Broncos -7.5 over Bengals

Sometimes in this business you have to think a little counterintuitively. The first two picks in this group speak to that. What about the Giants and Chargers respective seasons tells me that this game should be close? Nothing. However, the Giants are finally turning the reins over to Jaxson Dart this week and, to quote Lizzo, it’s about damn time. The Chargers have been red hot to start the season and even giving people thoughts of abandoning “Chargering” as a verb. Maybe this is who they are now, or maybe a little bit of the old Chargers we know and love is still in their and just waiting for a cross-country trip against a mediocre team to come out.

The next pick that you’re probably reading and making the John C. Reilly face about is the Falcons over the Commanders. Did any team look worse than Atlanta last week? They failed to cross the 30-yard line and made some people, read dumb people, clamor for Kirk Cousins. What a prime opportunity to look competent again! Jayden Daniels might play this week, but it still doesn’t seem like he’s 100%. Washington beat up on the Raiders, but the defense was still vulnerable to some big plays. I can’t really explain why the Falcons looked so terrible last week, despite the fact that I watched every second of that game, but that is just further evidence to support it being a complete anomaly. Last week’s results are probably artificially skewing the line both in favor of the Commanders and against the Falcons this week, which would suggest that zagging is the right play.

East teams going to the west coast isn’t nearly as much of a phenomenon as vice versa, but Jacksonville to San Francisco is still a haul. Plus, I just can’t get there with the Jaguars. They are better than they were last year, probably, but they still needed Houston to gift wrap that game for them to take it. Brock Purdy seems likely to return this week. Assuming he does, I feel comfortably with the 49ers here.

This line feels a little too high, but then I just have a mental image of Jake Browning in Brian Flores’ House of Horrors all Sunday. I’m not certain the Denver’s will be any less frightening. Frankly, the mental image of sitting on my couch watching Denver take an insurmountable 10-0 lead just feels depressing.

Tier 5: The Stay Aways (Season Record: 6-6)

Bills -15.5 over Saints

Browns +9.5 over Lions

Panthers +5.5 over Patriots

I can’t in good conscience recommend betting on the New Orleans Saints. Detroit is an excellent football team. We’ve seen how Cleveland can muddy up games against excellent football teams as recently as a week ago. Should the Patriots be laying more than a field goal over anyone without a “New” in their name right now?

Here’s to getting things back on track this week. Thanks for reading even through a slump.

Last Week’s Record: 5-11

Season Record: 20-28

Cover Photo Courtesy of Joe Nicholson/Imagn Images