In my never-ending quest to convince my wife to sit on the couch and watch football every Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday, I have tried to explain to her that the NFL is like a reality TV show. That quest has been a failure so far (I’ll keep y’all updated on my progress), but the argument did get me thinking about which reality tv show the NFL would be most comparable. The obvious answer is The Bachelor. You have a group of people, or teams, competing for a single prize (engagement/Super Bowl ring) that usually gets offered to them by a middle-aged, kind of sus white guy (The Batchelor/Roger Goodell). It’s not a perfect comp, but it’s as good as we’re gonna get. Anyway, the competition for the roses, erm playoff spots, begins this week, so if you can be a more persuasive spouse than me get ready for a great weekend of couch rot and football. That’s what America does!

Tier 1: Birds of a Feather

Seahawks +2.5 over 49ers

Ravens -1.5 over Bills

“Birds of a feather flock together” is how the saying goes. You probably don’t need me to explain what the phrase means. I chose the title because both teams have bird mascots, but ironically these two teams could not be more different if they tried. Baltimore has the best roster in the NFL, a long-tenured coach and an MVP quarterback. Seattle is trying to build a contender again now that all the remnants of the “Legion of Boom” era are gone. Smartly, John Schneider and Mike MacDonald are building things up through the defense first and starting a reclamation project, Sam Darnold, at quarterback for the time being.

San Francisco is a popular preseason pick to return to the playoffs after a disastrous, injury-plagued 2024, but what about this team says they should be a road favorite in a division game? Brock Purdy proved his more than a system quarterback last year and Christian McCaffrey is healthy. Those are the best arguments for the 49ers, but their receiving corps is worse than where they started last season and Brandon Aiyuk still isn’t back from injury. Seattle has a good defense and will make things difficult for a depleted San Francisco receiving corps. I called Sam Darnold a reclamation project in the above paragraph, which he was, but he was truly reclaimed last season by Minnesota. And while he was in a great system and surrounded by good skill players, I’m not so sure his situation won’t be all that different this year. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the most underrated wide receiver in the NFL and Kenneth Walker is one of a dying breed of bellcow backs when he’s healthy.

Sunday night’s AFC Division round rematch will be the best game of week one. The line has swung on this game from Bills -1.5 to Ravens -1.5 over the last 24 hours, and I agree with this movement. The game may be in Buffalo, but Baltimore will be coming into this game with revenge on their minds. If you remember, Baltimore had another AFC Championship Game appearance on its mind late in the division round against Buffalo before the plays that would earn the moniker “The Mark Andrews” game happened. Ravens fans probably don’t want to rehash it but for those that need a refresher. Mark Andrews, one of the most reliable pass catchers of the last decade, lost a fumble in the fourth quarter leading to a Buffalo field goal to take an eight-point lead. Lamar Jackson then did what he does and marched the Ravens down the field for a touchdown. He then offers Andrews a chance at redemption with a two-point conversion toss that Andrews subsequently drops. It’s unfair that this game will be in the first line of Andrews Wikipedia page, but that added motivation will be a boon in the season opener. As I mentioned above, Baltimore has the most complete team in the NFL and Buffalo’s defense can be torched by an elite passing game.

Tier 2: Palate Cleansers

Chiefs -3 over Chargers

Bucs -1.5 over Falcons

Texans +3 over Rams

Like a nice bite of sorbet, these three teams all need a little bit of a palate cleanser to rid the bitter aftertaste of the 2024 season and move on to the 2025 season.

No need to rehash the bitter end to the Chiefs season. The bid for a Super Bowl threepeat was over before it got started as the Chiefs’ flaws got exposed by a more physical and complete Eagles team. That has led many, especially those already suffering from Chiefs fatigue, to sleep on Kansas City coming into the season. Pat Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the NFL and capable of things on a football field that can only be described as sorcery. Kansas City upgraded their offensive line to try to limit the amount of witchcraft needed from their shaman quarterback too. It’s also worth noting that the Chiefs always beat the Chargers. They’ve won their last seven against Los Angeles.

Tampa Bay is one of the teams that I’m “in” on for the 2025 season. There’s a lot to like. The defense will be solid at all three levels. Baker Mayfield is a gamer and has a decent group around him with Mike Evans, Bucky Irving and rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka. Chris Godwin won’t be back this week, but he will be later in the season. I like Tampa Bay to win the NFC South, and an opening season division win would get that off to a good start. There’s some hype around Atlanta with a full season of Michael Penix, but offensive line and interior defense concerns persist. Tampa wins this game because they control the line of scrimmage.

Houston managed to make the playoffs out of a weak decision despite being largely a disappointment last year. Then their season ended in the game that really ramped up the “the NFL refs are in the bag for the Chiefs” narrative. There’s reason to believe they should be better this year though. They upgraded their offensive coordinator and brought in a pair of rookie receivers, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, that give C.J. Stroud no shortage of pass catchers. The one worry I have in this game is Houston’s offensive line holding up against Jared Verse and the Rams pass rush. Weighing that against an aging Stafford going against the best defense in the NFL, and I like C.J. Stroud and getting a few points.

Tier 3: Good Vibes Only

Eagles -8.5 over Cowboys

Packers -2.5 over Lions

Patriots -2.5 over Raiders

Sometimes you can have all the facts, stats and analysis laid out before you and you just have to rely on something even better. Vibes!

Is there any team coming into the season with worse vibes than the Dallas Cowboys right now? Dallas just shipped off their best player in a deal not even a Madden GM would accept. Dallas certainly isn’t the worst, or the least talented, team in the NFL, but they are the biggest sad sacks. That’s an accomplishment considering the dumpster fires going on in Cleveland and New Orleans. Prior to the Micah Parsons trade, I would have been tempted to lay anything over seven in this game, but now the Eagles are the bet. Philly is flying high (no pun intended) off a Super Bowl win and now they get their biggest rivals at their most dejected? Maybe this should have been bumped a tier. If you need a prop bet this week, can I tempt you with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley 3+ rushing touchdowns at +430? The only thing that worries me about this is Barkley gets no credit if he busts a screen pass for a touchdown, but at least one tush push and one Barkley touchdown feel certain and with Dallas’s porous run defense (ironically improving this was the given rationale for the Parsons trade) it would surprise me at all if Barkley or Hurts or both get two touchdowns on the ground.

Vibes aren’t always a zero-sum game, but in this game the Cowboys loss is the Packers gain. There was some mild interest in the Packers as a potential division winner coming into the season, but now that interest is zesty. Micah Parsons singlehandedly addresses the biggest cause for concern for Green Bay heading into the season, the pass rush. Assuming he plays Sunday, I think Green Bay has to be considered equal with Detroit after they downgraded their offensive coordinator and offensive line in the offseason.

Drake Maye-nia is sweeping New England right now and the Pats have real optimism for the first time since Tom Brady left town. I’m not entirely convinced they should start buying playoff tickets yet. The offensive line is still bad, and the defense will be average at best. It also hurts that Christian Gonzalez, easily New England’s best defender, likely won’t suit up this weekend as he is still working his way back from injury. The Raiders aren’t a great team either and this is a classic “stay away from the West team flying East for a 1:00 kickoff” game. I’m buying some Raiders stock this season so maybe this is just my way of hedging, but I like the Pats at home.

Tier 4: The Rebuilders

Bears +1.5 over Vikings

Jets +2.5 over Steelers

Titans +7.5 over Broncos

Can we rebuild it? Eh, maybe.

Caleb Williams rookie season wasn’t necessarily a disaster, but it was closer to that than it was good. Matt Eberflus got fired after the biggest Thanksgiving blunder since Leon Lett it go and Underdog got away. The Bears also lost to another rookie quarterback on a Hail Mary. Things have to be better in Chicago this year, right? Caleb Williams has a season under his belt. Ben Johnson seems to be a true professional, in addition to being a wunderkind playcaller. I’m not necessarily buying Bears’ season stock, but I like them as a home dog against a quarterback starting his first game with a banged-up Justin Jefferson and without Jordan Addison.

Who’s getting revenge? The Jets over Aaron Rodgers or vice versa? The better question is: who is thirstier for revenge? Arguably it was Aaron Rodgers who made a mockery of the Jets, and not the other way around. Ok you caught me. The Jets were a mockery long before Aaron Rodgers brought his crazy baggage to the Big Apple, but he certainly made the casual fan pay more attention to how much of a joke the Jets were. For that reason, I think New York is the team with the bigger chip on its shoulder. I like the Jets as a home dog in a “we want it more” game. Also, Justin Fields was the better quarterback in Pittsburgh last season. He got benched for reasons that are best left to Mike Tomlin, so it’s a double “we want it more” game.

The Titans cannot be any worse than they were last season. Betting against Tennessee was the easiest money I’ve made, maybe ever in my life. Cam Ward seems like mature beyond his years, and he can’t be worse than Will Levis was. The biggest worry in Nashville now is if their coach is good or not. Brian Callahan certainly didn’t do anything to mitigate those concerns last season. Levis may have been the most obvious jester in the court, but Callahan’s game management and the pure preparation blunders that plagued Tennessee all last season speak to poor coaching. All evidence points to Cam Ward being a huge upgrade over Levis so far, and because of that this is a bet on Tennessee being undervalued coming into the season. Denver is a media darling too, and everyone seems to like Denver as a threat to Kansas City’s stronghold on the AFC West. This is truly a value bet, but I wouldn’t invest too much in it.

Tier 5: The Stay Aways

Cardinals -6.5 over Saints

Browns +5.5 over Bengals

Jaguars -3.5 over Panthers

Giants +5.5 over Commanders

Dolphins +1.5 over Colts

Don’t bet any of these! For posterity’s sake, here’s a brief rationale for each pick though on the off chance that my readers are as degenerate as I am.

The Saints are going to be the worst team in football. Vegas is going to have to work harder than this to get my money on New Orleans this year.

Cincinnati always starts slow. Joe Burrow is 1-4 in season openers. I think there’s a strong chance he gets to 2-4, but this one will be closer than it should be.

Carolina’s defense is horrendous. If Trevor Lawrence is ever going to flash the potential that made him a “can’t miss” prospect, now’s the time.

The Giants always play the Commanders close, and Brian Daboll knows his job is on the line from Week 1 on.

Everybody is off Miami this year, and for good reason. The Colts might also be awful though and I’m not convinced the Dolphins aren’t the more talented team.

Cover Photo Courtesy of Bachelor Nation Wiki