Remember those Thursday nights in college when you knew you had a Friday morning class but your friends were going out so you went for “one beer” and the next thing you know you’re waking up with no shoes and frantically calling all the bars you can remember to see if you left your debit card there? (Clearly this is an apocryphal story that I’ve only heard rumor of). That’s how it felt betting against Pat Mahomes in the playoffs last week. Furthermore, it’s probably how Vegas felt making Pat Mahomes an underdog in the Super Bowl last year. It was fun for awhile, but it was not worth it. Vegas and I aren’t in college anymore and so we’ve learned our lesson. When my buddy shoots that text on Thursday afternoon this time, “Hey you wanna bet against Pat Mahomes? YOLO bro.” I’m not falling for it. Call it growth.

The problem with this is that I can think of a multitude of football reasons why Philadelphia is the better team and should win this game. Vic Fangio’s zone-heavy two-high shells were pretty much tailormade to neutralize a player like Pat Mahomes, or at least the player he was before the past two seasons. If you’ve paid any attention at all, you know this iteration of the Kansas City passing game is the bizarro version of the offense that took the league by storm when Mahomes took over for Alex Smith in the 2018 season. Mahomes has one of the lowest air yards per attempt in the league and is content to dink and dunk his way down the field, sacrificing explosion for efficiency. Staying on that side of the ball, the biggest mismatch in this game is Philadelphia’s defensive line, led by the Baby Rhino Jalen Carter, against the mix ‘n match Kansas City offensive line. Joe Thuney’s slide out to left tackle has improved things but the interior of the Chiefs offensive line is vulnerable to a game-wrecking interior pass rusher like Carter.

Flipping sides, Philadelphia has always had success running the ball against Spags. They ran the ball well two Super Bowls ago with a combination of Miles Sanders and D’Andre Swift. Now replace those guys with Saquon Barkley and it’s like going from a Lime scooter to a Harley Davidson. There’s a scenario where Barkley just takes this game by storm and Philly’s offensive line holds up against a good not great Kansas City run defense and Barkley runs into the history books to a Philly title and a Super Bowl MVP (if you want that hedge the Barkley MVP odds are +370). The biggest question I have for Philly, which is the same as everyone else’s, is can they pass the ball effectively enough to win? The passing game looked good last week, but that was against one of the weakest defenses we’ve seen in a conference championship game. Kansas City’s defense is not that. Expect them to play zone heavy and force Jalen Hurts to go through progressions and make reads. That’s where he struggles the most and the Chiefs know that. Hurts won’t necessarily need the best game of his career statistically to give Philly a chance, but he will need to have his smartest game.

The Pick: Going back to the top, I have to invoke the George W. Bush principle: “Fool me once shame on…shame on you. Fool me…you can’t get fooled again.” I went against Mahomes in the AFC championship game. I’ve learned. I’m spending my night studying instead of “hanging with the bros”. Give me Kansas City -1.5. Score Prediction: Kansas City 27 Philadelphia 21 (+13000).

The Prop Bets:

I know this is really why you’re here. Most of these will make sense based on what’s above, but I will explain a few in parentheses.

Opening Coin Toss Heads -104 (Why not?)

Travis Kelce Anytime TD +125 (For reference this same bet was +100 last year and in a one game sample I think he’s basically the same guy. You know Pat looks for him when it matters most)

Travis Kelce over 60.5 receiving yards -110

Noah Gray Anytime TD +500 (Philly’s most vulnerable against tight ends, so we will be hammering some Noah Gray props)

Noah Gray over 11.5 receiving yards -110

Noah Gray over 1.5 receptions +120

Noah Gray at least one 15+ yard reception +220

Jake Elliott under 6.5 total points +100 (Elliott is one of the least reliable kickers in the playoffs. He misses extra points and long field goals. The over for this is essentially banking on him either having 4 extra point opportunities or him making 3 field goals. That seems…unlikely)

Any successful two-point conversion +180 (Given Elliott’s extra point issues, it seems somewhat likely that Philly ends up in a go-for-two situation)

Jalen Hurts Octopus (TD and two-point conversion in same drive) +200 (Given the above two bets, how about a tush push followed by a QB draw/scramble for an 8-point drive for Hurts?)

Any Scoreless Quarter +400 (This game will be methodical. There’s a chance the Chiefs milk out a quarter)

First Half Spread Kansas City +1.5 -140 (The Chiefs are underdogs in the first half!)

First Chiefs Player Reception Kareem Hunt +1100 (Essentially banking on a Mahomes checkdown on the first passing play, seems more likely than 11-to-1 odds)

Kareem Hunt over 6.5 receiving yards -110 (See above)

Kareem Hunt over 1.5 receptions +142 (See above)

Kareem Hunt 1^st Quarter Receiving Yards over 0.5 +320 (See above)

Jalen Hurts under 211.5 passing yards -110

Jalen Hurts 0 passing touchdowns +240 (We know what Philly will do in the red zone)

Charles Omenihu to record a sack +200

Triple Crown: Mahomes/DeVonta Smith/Saquon Barkley +1300 (DeVonta Smith is the only one that needs explanation here: if Kansas City runs as much zone as I think they will then Smith is their natural zone beater and most targeted receiver against zone)

DeVonta Smith over 50.5 receiving yards -110

DeVonta Smith over 4.5 receptions +104

Pat Mahomes MVP +120

It’s Pat Mahomes’ world, we’re all just living in it. Thanks again for reading this year.

Conference Championship Record: 1-1

Playoff Record: 5-7

Season Record: 134-136

Cover Photo Courtesy of Joe Rondone/The Republic