“It simply isn’t a story worth telling if there aren’t any dragons.” – J.R.R. Tolkien

We’re nearly there. Three more games. Two more weekends (with a media weekend in between). One champion to crown. That’s all that’s left of the football season, but the storylines are getting juicier. The Washington Commanders, led by a rookie quarterback out of the shadows of their darkest days, shocked the Detroit Lions last week. Can they reach for perfection again? This time outdoors. Against a nearly whole defense who won’t be so eager to play man and leave open running lanes for Jayden Daniels. For the Buffalo Bills, I hardly need to say it, but they have their arch nemesis, white whale, final boss and ultimate dragon standing in their way again. “Thirteen seconds” is the most famous iteration of the Josh Allen-Pat Mahomes rivalry, but Kansas City has dispatched the Bills twice more in the last four postseasons.

NFC Championship Game: Eagles -6.5 over Commanders

At this point in the season, there isn’t much left to write about these teams that hasn’t already been written. Especially in this game, which will be the third meeting between these two teams. In the first meeting, Saquon Barkley ran over the Commanders en route to a 26-18. The second meeting seemed to start the same way. The Eagles jumped out to a big lead, but then Jalen Hurts left the game with a concussion. Washington scratched and clawed their way back, overcoming five turnovers (2 interceptions and 3 fumbles), and Daniels led a late score for the win.

This is a challenging one. I do fear that Saquon Barkley will run wild on the Commanders defense again. Detroit still ran the ball all over Washington last week. They just couldn’t stop turning the ball over or stop the Commanders. Philly’s passing woes have been well documented, but one thing they haven’t been is careless with the football. If Barkley has the success that he should be able to against this defense, and Jalen Hurts can hit a few passes to his own guys instead of the other guys, that should be enough for Philly’s offense.

Washington won’t enjoy the same schematic advantages inherent in the last matchup. Detroit was committed to its blitz-heavy, man-to-man approach. It also was playing with nearly a second-string defenses thanks to all the injuries they’ve sustained. Philadelphia will be without Nakobe Dean and Quinyon Mitchell may be limited, although he participated in today’s walkthrough. Other than that they are mostly healthy. They also will employ a very different philosophy. Vic Fangio’s defense prefers the two-high shells, zone looks and four-man pass rushes that are the antithesis to Detroit’s scheme. The advantage for that against Washington specifically, is that there are more eyes keeping an eye on what Jayden Daniels is doing and fewer opportunities for him to rip off huge plays on the ground. If Philly’s defensive line can contain Daniels’ legs with four, then it forces Daniels to make the correct decision throwing the ball over and over and over again. He’s done it before and is capable of doing it again, but this will be an outdoor game in very cold weather in a hostile environment. Betting on rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs is generally a mistake.

Side Note: This line appears like it will drop, and already has in other places. I would pay a little juice to drop this line below six if at all possible.

AFC Championship Game: Bills +1.5 over Chiefs

I thought I was done with this. I really did. Last year, I convinced myself that I would just bet the Chiefs every playoff game while Mahomes was in his prime and bank on coming out right significantly more often than I came out wrong. I may regret this, but I can’t do it this time. This feels like Buffalo’s year. Everything was set up for Baltimore to come back and send Buffalo into another overtime situation, and then Mark Andrews dropped the two-point conversion. Those are the breaks Buffalo never gets, but they did this time. They are also locked in on this game. This is the team they’ve had circled from the beginning. I genuinely believe this is the Bills’ time.

Looking beyond the storylines, there is every football reason to believe that Buffalo will win this game. Kansas City’s offense is not explosive. They don’t have the running game to attack Buffalo’s defense, nor the reliable deep threats to challenge Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp in coverage. Offensively, Buffalo can be explosive but Josh Allen’s newfound ball security is what sets this Bills team about from the others. The way Kansas City wins this game is capitalization on short-field opportunities, which can’t happen if Buffalo doesn’t give them any. That and James Cook’s emergence as a legitimate feature back are what’s different this time around. I may regret this, but I’ve got the Bills here. After all, if the presence of dragons is what makes the story worth telling, the slaying of the dragon elevates the story to a legend.

Last Week’s Record: 1-3

Playoff Record: 4-6

Cover Photo Courtesy of Adrian Kraus/AP