As kids, we concerned ourselves greatly with whether certain adults in our lives were “playing favorites” when it came to the various aspects of our lives. Teachers played favorites in school. Coaches played favorites on the field, diamond or hardwood. Parents even played favorites in the home. This year has been the year of the favorite in the NFL and I’ve tried so hard not to give in to the trend thinking its probably going to reverse course as soon as I do, but at the division round I’ve finally relented. This week we’re playing the favorites, and if that makes for a more boring column then so be it.

No Pumpkins Here: Ravens -1.5 over Bills

I waited all year for Baltimore to turn back into the team they were last year, and even the team that started the season 0-2. You know, the team that lost to the Raiders outright in week two. The team that can’t put teams away. The team that fails to cover any two-score spread. It’s time for me to accept this is who Baltimore is, and they aren’t going back. Even if Cinderella’s chariot turned back into a pumpkin at midnight, the glass slipper still fit. I’m not saying Lamar Jackson are a Cinderella story per se, they have more of an Alice slaying the jabberwock with the vorpal sword on frabjous day vibe, but I am saying that this may be the year that Lamar’s glass slipper, ahem championship ring, fits.

One of the major reasons for the change in the Baltimore is the pressure that Jackson and Derrick Henry exert on defenses in the running game. We saw it in the divisional round when Baltimore ran wild on a Pittsburgh defense that had widely been regarded as one of the best in the NFL, even if their play had faltered down the stretch. Everything trickles down from that two-headed monster in the backfield, and good luck trying to figure out how to attack that mesh point in the read option. I could see a big day for both guys, like they had against the Bills back in week four.

Buffalo has their own jabberwock they are trying to slay, but the Chiefs are their white whale. Josh Allen has played MVP caliber football all season, and James Cook’s emergence as a legitimate threat in the running game has made this offense more dynamic than it’s been in the last few seasons. There is a scenario where Allen goes supernova in this game and Baltimore is left picking up the pieces of another early playoff exit. But, the Ravens defense seems to be peaking at the right time and I think they can do just enough for Jackson and Henry to get it done.

Ultimately, I see more paths for Baltimore generating stops than I do Buffalo stopping Jackson and Henry, and that’s why I’m taking Baltimore to win and cover this spread. One of the biggest delights of the division round is that this will be the last weekend of the year we get to see the three best quarterbacks in football (Josh Allen, Pat Mahomes and Lamar Jackson) in the same weekend. Don’t cry because it’s over, smile because it happened…and you can bet the three to combine for 6+ passing touchdowns at +140, which may give you another reason to smile.

Deuces Wild: Lions -8.5 over Commanders

The big storyline in this game is Sonic gets his Knuckles back. David Montgomery is returning to the field in some capacity for the Detroit Lions this weekend, and that running attack is the main reason to roll with the favorites here. Dan Campbell’s kneecap-biting mentality has permeated this whole team and is the main reason for the organizational turnaround, but the legs of Gibbs and Montgomery churn the butter for this offense, so to speak. Washington has been a good story this season too, but their inability to stop the run is their Achilles’ heel.

Detroit’s running backs may be the butter churns, but Jared Goff has held the captain’s wheel all year keeping this ship afloat through the injury to Montgomery and offensive line injuries. He’s done it to the fanfare of “Ja-red Goff! Ja-red Goff!” that’s reminiscent of the ancient Romans chanting “Max-i-mus! Max-i-mus!” at the Colosseum. Defensively, Detroit has stuck to its guns through a torrent of injuries that would have spelled doom for most defenses. Aaron Glenn deserves a ton of credit for instilling the “next man up” mentality in this defense and not changing one damn thing about how they want to play. They’ve stayed aggressive. They’ve stayed in man. And they’ve made opposing offenses mostly miserable, most obviously in week 18 when they made Sam Darnold see ghosts all the way into the wild card round.

Jayden Daniels has been the best rookie of the season. The ownership change may have been the trigger for the culture change in Washington, but Daniels’ arrival was critical in turning around the on-field product. Terry McLaurin is a legitimate #1 receiver and Washington has signed some serviceable veterans, but this roster needs an elevator at quarterback to be a playoff-caliber team. Daniels has been an elevator and more. The future is bright for the Commanders with Daniels, but the defense has struggled to hold up against dominant rushing attacks all year.

The Eagles ran all over them in both meetings, even if Daniels led a come-from-behind win in the last one, and Derrick Henry ran for 132 yards and two touchdowns back in week seven. It’s hard not to see Gibbs and Montgomery having similar success in this one. The back door will probably be wide open for Jayden Daniels to rip some money out of our pockets, so if the tease game is more up your alley, I’d support that too. Also, if you, like me, are a big fan of betting on some RB touchdown props, can I interest you in a 24-1 bet on any three of Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley or James Cook to score 2+ touchdowns? Sprinkle a little on it and live a little.

He’s Back: Chiefs -8.5 over Texans

At the end of the “Order of the Phoenix”, Cornelius Fudge arrives at the Ministry of Magic just in time to see Voldemort before he disapparates and utters a staccatoed, “He’s back!” No NFL coach or player would admit it, but I imagine that’s a similar reaction they have to the return of playoff Pat Mahomes. Mahomes hasn’t had his best season statistically, and the supporting cast leaves something to be desired. Isiah Pacheco’s return has helped the running game though, and Mahomes is still the best quarterback alive until proven otherwise. How are we supposed to not bet on him the first chance we get?

To borrow a concept from Bill Simmons’s Playoff Manifesto, Houston looked a little too good last round. Houston blew out the Chargers largely on the back of the worst performance of Justin Herbert’s career. The Texans offense is still deeply flawed and doesn’t consistently move the ball on the ground and is down two of their top three receiving options. The defense is good, but if your position is betting on a defense to best Pat Mahomes then you haven’t been watching the playoffs for the last five years.

This line is high, but sometimes you just put your faith in the best player alive and not worry about the size of the line. There’s not a player prop from this game that I’m in love with, but if you need a prop how about both Saturday games to have 1+ successful two-point conversion at 14-1? The other Saturday game is Detroit-Washington. Dan Campbell is a safe bet to attempt at least one two-point conversion with his ultra-aggressive attitude to game management. I don’t view Andy Reid or Demeco Ryans as particularly aggressive, but it wouldn’t be unreasonable for one of the two teams to end up in an obvious two-point attempt situation. 14-1 odds are pretty good to sprinkle a little moolah on.

Everything’s Fine: Eagles -6.5 over Rams

If every NFL team left in the playoffs were a popular meme, the Philadelphia Eagles would be that wide-eyed dog sitting in his kitchen drinking coffee while the house around him burns. The caption, as always, is “This is fine. Everything’s fine.” That’s how things feel in Philadelphia right now. They are 15-3. They won the division. They’re the #2 overall seed. They are mostly healthy and have a running back who ran for over 2,000 yards this year. And yet, Jalen Hurts had yet another poor passing performance that had A.J. Brown reading self-help books on the sideline during their Wild Card win over the Packers. The story coming out of that game was more about Jordan Love and the Packers than it was about the Eagles. I think that is taking something away from an Eagles defense who has been excellent, but there’s a reason Philly wasn’t the primary storyline of that game. They didn’t exactly inspire “legit Super Bowl contender” confidence.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles, playing with the weight of a whole city on them in the wake of the devastation of the Palisades and Eaton and Altadena wildfires, played lights out football in Glendale on Monday night. A skeptic would point out that the loss had a lot to do with the Vikings collapsing down the stretch, particularly Sam Darnold. Darnold’s inability to play competent offense in that game was glaringly obvious. He held the ball far too long and struggled to make basic throws and do basic things to extend plays in the pocket. Troy Aikman had to feel bad helping devalue Sam Darnold’s contract by pointing out the obvious, but he wasn’t wrong in pointing these things out. Matt Stafford has been excellent against the blitz all year, and Brian Flores never seemed to find a blitz package or combination to confuse the veteran save the one play early in the second half when Matt Stafford still managed to “throw an incomplete pass” to a “receiver in the area.” All this to say, the Rams played well in an emotional game, but there’s a strong chance they are the “team who looked a little too good in the last round” too.

This line also feels a bit high, but I’m taking Philly at home and think their defensive scheme might be better suited to slowing down the Rams than Minnesota’s was. Also, Los Angeles doesn’t have a particularly good defense, but the strength is the young pass rushers. They are much less equipped to shut down a power rushing attack, which Philly is. This is a better matchup for the Eagles than for the Rams. And for one last prop bet: Any 4 of Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Puka Nacua, Sam LaPorta or Mark Andrews to score 1+ TD at +600 is my favorite bet in this style.

Also, because this is meant to be fun here’s my divisional triple crown bet: Josh Allen, Puka Nacua and Derrick Henry to lead the round in passing yards, receiving yards and rushing yards at 100-1.

Last Week’s Record: 3-3

Playoff Record: 3-3

Cover Photo Courtesy of Michael Owens/Getty Images