Irma Rombauer first published “The Joy of Cooking” privately in 1931 in the wake of a great personal tragedy. Five years later it would be published commercially for the first time inspiring basically the entire boomer generation of home cooks, notably including Julia Child.

I’m not sure why that occurred to me preparing to write my NFL Wild Card column. I haven’t experienced a personal tragedy recently, thankfully. As I was preparing to write this, I was reflecting on the season and my recent swoon in picks performance when it hit me that none of that really matters. You probably aren’t betting on games or changing picks simply because I tell you too, nor should you. Hopefully, you read this each week because you enjoy it and you enjoy football. I know I do, and we now have fewer than 20 college and NFL games left before a long offseason. So, for this week, I’ll still be providing picks, but we are going to take some time to focus on the elements of each game that should make them fun. Consider this column a dedication to the “joy” of football.

Brilliant Minds: Vikings -1.5 over Rams

The physicality of football is apparent. It’s not hard to notice one man physically imposing his will over another, whether that be a defensive end bullrushing a tackle en route to a sack or a running back beating a pursuing linebacker to the spot and turning on the jets for a touchdown or a receiver jumping over the top of an outclassed defensive back to “Moss” him for a touchdown. It doesn’t require any extra effort to notice these things.

The mentality of football is what often goes overlooked or unnoticed, and it’s one of the more joyous things in the sport to see it done well. That’s why this Vikings-Rams game will be the best game of the wild card round. Kevin O’Connell and Sean McVay are two of the four or five best head coaches in the NFL. In-game management gaffes are an epidemic among NFL head coaches these days and those mistakes get magnified even more in the playoffs, looking at you Nick Sirianni, but you won’t see much of that in this game. O’Connell and McVay are two of the best at avoiding in-game blunders.

Running even deeper, the mental game between Brian Flores and Matt Stafford should also be a delight. Stafford is entering the twilight of his career, but he’s one of the smartest quarterbacks in the NFL. He knows how to quickly diagnose coverages and identify blitzers. He may not have the physical traits anymore to avoid those blitzers with his legs, but his ability to quickly react and put the ball where it needs to be is still there. Flores is the best defensive coordinator in the NFL and should probably be a head coach somewhere. He is known for exotic blitz packages and putting unprepared quarterbacks through a house of horrors of simulated pressure and difficult to diagnose blitz packages. Watching Flores try to confuse Stafford, and Stafford adjusting with hot routes and quick throws should produce the kind of film coaches at lower levels salivate over showing their players.

Minnesota should win this game. This line has been deflated by Minnesota’s performance last Sunday night, but there are reasons to believe that’s not an accurate reflection of who the Vikings will be going forward. Justin Jefferson had an uncharacteristically bad night, no disrespect to Amik Robertson whose outstanding coverage was a major part of that. Minnesota didn’t convert on high leverage downs, which they had done most of the year before this. Sam Darnold was sped up and induced to make poor decisions by Aaron Glenn’s gameplan. Jahmyr Gibbs made his statement as one of the best do-it-all backs in the game and Jared Goff played a mostly perfect game. All of these may shed light on what may happen if these teams meet again in the postseason, but punishing the Vikings for catching one of the best teams in football on one of their best nights isn’t a reason to sell their stock now. This Rams defense is young and has improved a lot this season, but I think their secondary will struggle to hold up against Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. If Minnesota can give Darnold time and block Jared Verse and Braden Fiske, I think the Vikings score enough to win this game.

Defense Wins Championships: Chargers -2.5 over Texans

If Madden-style shootouts are your cup of tea, this may not be the game for you. However, if you are the kind of guy who bets the under because statistically that’s all you should bet. If you love a field goal shootout. If shutouts rev your engines. This will be your nirvana. Demeco Ryans and Jim Harbaugh are two defensive-minded coaches and have planted their flag on physicality and hard-nosed defense. Harbaugh’s ability to transform the Chargers into a tough, defense-first franchise in just under 12 months has been nothing short of miraculous. On the flip side, Ryans commit to the defense has overcome a substantial stepback by C.J. Stroud and the Houston offense this season.

Another bright spot in this game is seeing Justin Herbert get another playoff start under his belt. Herbert has long been the “stathead”’s darling, but the “First Take” crows has continued to scoff at Herbert because of his lack of team success. Regardless of which side of that aisle you choose to sit, we can all agree that seeing a quarterback of Herbert’s caliber in the playoffs is better for us all. Here’s to Harbaugh making that a regular occurrence, and to us getting at least two Herbert playoff games this year. The Chargers have been better than the Texans for most of this year. Since J.K. Dobbins return from the injured reserve, this Chargers offense has been humming. Houston’s defense is a good challenge for Herbert, but Los Angeles offense has been playing better recently than anything we’ve seen from Houston’s offense this year.

Individual Brilliance: Bills -8.5 over Broncos

Josh Allen’s maturation from talented-but-reckless gunslinger to MVP frontrunner has been one of the best stories of the NFL regular season. Now it’s time for Allen to prove that maturation a step further with some playoff success, notably against the Chiefs. In the past few years, it’s seemed like Kansas City has been the only thing standing between Allen and a Super Bowl appearance. I’m inclined to think that may be true again, but first they must take on the Denver Broncos. If it weren’t for Sean Payton’s grating smugness, the Broncos might also be a feel-good story with a rookie quarterback whom many, me included, scoffed at being drafted so highly taking the reins and immediately getting his team to the playoffs.

Denver laid waste to the Chiefs backups and backups backups last week, but before that this had been a team in decline. The Broncos aren’t playing their best football coming into the playoffs, and while Bo Nix has exceeded expectations this year, betting on a rookie quarterback on the road in the playoffs feels foolish. Buffalo is vulnerable in the secondary, but Denver doesn’t have the downfield passing attack to consistently exploit that.

A Full Circle Narrative: Eagles -4.5 over Packers

Many of us remember the NFL opener. Chiefs vs. Ravens. Isaiah Likely just barely out of bounds on the touchdown as time expired that could have given Baltimore a chance at a game-winning two-point conversion. How many of you remember the second game of the season? Does Packers-Eagles on terrible field conditions in Brazil ring any bells? We came away from that game with significant questions about both teams. Jordan Love hurt his knee late in that game raising real concerns about Green Bay’s ability to “stay afloat” without him and Jalen Hurts put the ball in harm’s way raising questions about Philadelphia’s passing game that have persisted all season. In spite of that, Philadelphia got hot down the stretch to secure the two-seed and Green Bay did stay afloat.

One of my favorite things about a football season is following the week-to-week narratives from opening day to playoff team to see how teams evolve, and our opinions of teams evolve, over the course of the season. This will give us a good full circle arc for that. We also should see two of the NFL’s elite running backs on display. Saquon Barkley has cemented himself as a generational running back with one of the best seasons a running back has ever had. Meanwhile Josh Jacobs continues to carry the banner as one of the last remaining “bell cow” running backs.

Philadelphia is the better team and is playing the better football down the stretch. It’s also concerning that Jordan Love had to leave a needed week 18 game against the Bears with an injury and Christian Watson is out for the playoffs with a knee injury. Those impacts on Green Bay’s offense against a Philadelphia defense that has become one of the better units in football are a major reason why I’ve got the Eagles not only winning but also covering this spread.

The Warm and Fuzzies: Commanders +3 over Bucs

Sometimes for all the analysis and the matchup breakdowns, we need to just throw all of that out of the window and appreciate a good story. For Washington, it’s a tale as old as time. The Commanders vanquished their evil overlord, Dan Snyder, and now he has to sit there and watch their happily ever after. Regardless of Sunday’s outcome, the Commanders and their fans are already winners.

In Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield’s redemption story is another one of the best storylines of the playoffs. It looked like Mayfield’s career as a starter was done for when he landed on the Rams roster midseason. One explosive relief start later and he was brought in to fill a post-Brady void in Tampa Bay. Now he has the Bucs in the playoffs for the second consecutive season. Crediting all of Tampa Bay’s relative success to the “Bake Show” would be disingenuous. Liam Coen has done wonders with this offense and the running game is the foundation of the offense. Also, the rest of the NFC South deserves a lot of credit for being putrid, but Mayfield is the feel-good story of the team.

“Betting on a rookie quarterback on the road in the playoffs feels foolish.” -Me, six paragraphs ago

I know what I said, but betting on Jayden Daniels here doesn’t feel the same. Daniels has exhibited poise beyond his years all season, remember the throw to Terry McLaurin in week two or the drive to take down the Eagles just a few weeks ago? Daniels is the better quarterback in this matchup and the one I trust more. The only thing that gives me pause is Washington’s ability, or possible inability, to stop Tamp Bay’s running game. The path to victory for the Bucs would be running all over the Commanders and keeping the ball out of Daniels’ hands.

A Division Rubber Match: Steelers +9.5 over Ravens

Pittsburgh and Baltimore meeting in the playoffs, and hopefully in the snow, is just classic playoff football. Division rivals with no love lost between each other makes for the kind of passion that makes playoff football special. For added juice, Lamar will be trying to shed some playoff demons and prove he’s not just a regular season statistical marvel.

Pittsburgh has really faltered down the stretch and has no real momentum heading into the postseason. Some people don’t believe in momentum. I do believe in Mike Tomlin, even if I’ve been saying that for weeks without success to show for it. This will likely be the end of the Russell Wilson era in Pittsburgh. It also might be the end of the Justin Fields era. I don’t think Pittsburgh has enough juice to win, but I’ll bank on the Tomlin mojo to keep things closer than this line.

Season Record: 135-137

Cover Photo Courtesy of SB Nation/Turf Show Times