“It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance.” -Thomas Sowell

When it comes to gambling on the NFL, I’ve gained a considerable amount of knowledge over the last four weeks, because I’m increasingly sure that the only thing that I know is that I know nothing. The season record is plummeting, and the L’s keep stacking up, fortunately week eighteen tends to line things up well. Gregory Mankiw’s fourth principle of economics states that: “People respond to incentives.” For most of the NFL season, teams have more or less the same incentive: to win. The game has changed now though. Some teams must win, some teams need to lose, and others are just twiddling their thumbs until next week (or year). Our tiers this week will be broken down along those lines, and we will also be applying Sam’s fourth principle of sports gambling: “Don’t bet on meaningless games.”

Tier 1: The Beauty and the Beast (Season Record: 20-16)

Vikings +2.5 over Lions

Chargers -4.5 over Raiders

For all three regular readers of this column, taking Minnesota over Detroit at this point probably reads like base treachery on my part. I’ve rode the Lions all year and been back and forth on the Vikings so much I probably gave you whiplash. The simple fact is that the Vikings are healthier than the Lions. Dan Campbell and Jared Goff deserve a ton of credit for continuing to navigate this team to a 14-2 record despite the heavy casualty count on both sides of the ball. Minnesota has no key injuries though and Sam Darnold is playing the best football of his life. I think Minnesota continues their hot streak and grabs the one seed and the bye. Also, if you have only one game to watch this weekend, this will be a beautiful game so do all your chores and such during the day and get your popcorn ready and tune your ears for three hours of Chris Collinsworth chortles.

Jim Harbaugh is a sociopathic beast of a man. Not just a garden variety sociopath, but a quarterback-beating, Gatorade-in-the-cereal, khaki-wearing lunatic who only has one incentive in life: take the manhood of his opponent and wear it like a badge of honor. If you think Los Angeles is going to take it easy against the Raiders because they have clinched a playoff spot, you don’t know Jim. This game also kind of matters, because with a Los Angeles win and a Steelers loss the Chargers take the five seed. I would much rather play the Texans than the Ravens in the Wild Card round and, even though he’d never admit to caring, Jim Harbaugh would too.

Tier 2: NFC Wild Card Seeds (Season Record: 25-19)

Commanders -6.5 over Cowboys

Packers -10.5 over Bears

The Commanders and Packers are already guaranteed the sixth and seventh seeds in the NFC in some order, but the order is still to be determined. Washington clinches the 6^th seed with a win, but Green Bay would take it with a win and a Washington loss. The NFL was smart enough to stick both these games in the early Sunday time slot, so both teams will have to go full bore. Why does the 6/7 seed fight matter? Who would you rather play in round one: the Los Angeles Rams or the NFC South champion?

As for the games themselves, Dallas had a few weeks of semi-competent play against NFC South opponents, one of which could soon be the NFC South champion but showed us who they are again against a Kenny Pickett-led Philadelphia Eagles team last week. The Cowboys have already shut down CeeDee Lamb for the season and have yet to announce a starting quarterback for this week now. I’d take Washington at this line regardless of who starts, but it will feel borderline like stealing if Dallas starts Trey Lance. Bet this now.

Aaron Rodgers once claimed he’d owned the Bears for his whole career, and while he was in Green Bay that was true. Since his ignominious departure from Green Bay, it’s become increasingly clear that the Packers, regardless of quarterback, are who really owns the Bears. Thomas Brown has failed to provide a dead cat bounce for this team and the offense has seemed to regress by the week.

Tier 3: AFC Playoff Spot on the Line (27-32)

Steelers +2.5 over Bengals

Chiefs +10.5 over Broncos

Jets -1.5 over Dolphins

I called my shot here weeks ago. (We’ll ignore the fact for a moment that I ended up being wrong about the game.) I said that the Steelers would end the Bengals season in week 18. Well, here we are. Cincinnati is in a must-win game in Pittsburgh on Saturday night and Mike Tomlin has an opportunity to end a rival’s season. This is a classic Tomlin game, but if you need something more concrete: George Pickens is back and the last time these two teams played Pittsburgh did whatever they wanted to against this porous Bengals defense and Chase Brown is banged up, so the Bengals don’t have any ground attack to keep the Pittsburgh pass rush honest.

I know Kansas City has the top seed locked up. I know Patrick Mahomes isn’t playing. I know other Chiefs starters probably aren’t playing. I know Denver needs this game. Hear me out. The Chiefs backup is Carson Wentz, who may not be a great quarterback, but he has played competent football before. Denver’s offense has been struggling and Kansas City’s defense is still decent, especially against the run. Denver also doesn’t get any style points for winning this game big. I’m not saying Kansas City wins, but a cover seems doable.

Picking against Miami is as simple as: I saw who they were without Tua earlier in the season. Tua isn’t playing in this game and Tyreek Hill is questionable. Miami looked like one of the worst teams in football when Tua Tagovailoa was sidelined with a concussion earlier in the year, and I expect to see more of the same in this game. The New York Jets are also one of the worst teams in football, and I’m not sure the Jets having a healthy starting quarterback is a significant advantage in this game, but I’m not betting on a Tua-less Dolphins team.

For those wondering, in this scenario the Broncos would get the 7^th seed, even if Kansas City were to win Denver gets in with Bengals AND Dolphins losses.

Tier 4: The NFC South (Season Record: 30-29)

Falcons -7.5 over Panthers

Bucs -14.5 over Saints

How different do we think the Atlanta Falcons season is if they start Michael Penix in week 1? Have they clinched the division already or are they in the same position? Did Penix sitting behind Cousins for several weeks provide some intangible growth to transition from college to NFL quarterback? If you’re an Atlanta fan, that’s what you have to be telling yourself, that and Kirk Cousins is getting Arthur Blank’s $180 million and not yours. In fairness to Kirk and Arthur, we also may not be having this discussion if Raheem Morris had managed the clock semi-competently at the end of last week’s game against the Commanders, so there’s plenty of real and hypothetical blame to pass around. But the Falcons still have a slim chance to win the division. If the Buccaneers fall apart against the Saints, and I mean really fall apart because you must really work at it to lose to New Orleans, and Atlanta takes care of business against the Panthers we’ll get to see Michael Penix’s playoff debut much sooner than anticipated. Carolina’s resurgence was a nice story but without Chuba Hubbard the offense just doesn’t have enough balance to consistently move the ball.

Tampa Bay should obliterate New Orleans. There’s always the outside chance of Baker Mayfield going Full Delhomme, but that is the only (and I really mean only) way I see the Saints hanging around. Tampa Bay runs the ball well and New Orleans can’t stop the run. That’s almost always a good recipe for a blowout.

Tier 5: Losers and Slackers (Season Record: 26-32)

Browns +19.5 over Ravens

Texans +1.5 over Titans

Colts -4.5 over Jaguars

Bills -3 over Patriots

Eagles -2.5 over Giants

Rams +6.5 over Seahawks

Cardinals -4.5 over 49ers

This is the group of games you want to avoid this week. The Browns, Giants, Patriots and Titans have every incentive to lose this week, as they are all currently tied at 3-13 with the number one pick still up for grabs. That might seem like a great opportunity to just bet against them all, but as the great Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friend.” Vegas also knows that these teams need to lose and has adjusted these lines accordingly. Baltimore laying 19.5 points against Cleveland is insane. Sure, they could cover, but there are so many scenarios where they are up comfortably (but less than twenty) late and just grind out the clock or give up a garbage time score.

Philadelphia and Buffalo are only marginal favorites because they are playing backups, so I would be hesitant to put any significant money on either one. Of the two, I like the Eagles slightly more with the outside chance Barkley goes for the rushing record and the fact that Kenny Pickett has had game action for the last two weeks.

Houston over Tennessee is probably the line that I like the most here. I know Houston is getting points because they also have nothing to play for, but the Titans are one of the worst NFL teams I’ve ever seen and will probably still have the worst quarterback in this game. Tennessee is 2-14 against the spread this season. You’ll kick yourself if you miss one last opportunity to bet just a little bit against them.

None of the NFC West games matter. Stay away.

Colts vs. Jaguars is only interesting because I low-key think Shane Steichen might be coaching for his job. We saw Jim Irsay jettison Carson Wentz after a last-week-of-the-regular-season collapse once. If Steichen ends this season with losses to the Giants and the Jaguars, it wouldn’t shock me if he’s looking for a new job, whereas Doug Pederson will be doing that regardless.

Last Week’s Record: 4-12

Season Record: 128-128

Cover Photo Courtesy of Andy Kenutis/Minnesota Vikings