We all know the scene. A boy in a yellow shirt swears he won’t fall for it again. The girl in the blue dress swears she won’t do it again. They go back and forth. Eventually, the boy relents and says he’ll have another go. He gets a running start. The football is held in place until the last second and then…Aaugh!!!!

That’s how I felt watching a third consecutive losing week occur as game after game felt like it got ripped away. Denver gave up the first free kick field goal in years to end the first half before a second half meltdown against the Chargers. Geno Smith played, despite looking like Dr. House on the sideline the week before, and managed to keep Seattle close enough to cover. Pat Mahomes played with more tape on his ankle than a homemade Hannibal Lecter mask and dissected one of the best offenses in the NFL. Tampa Bay allowed Dallas to make huge defensive plays against them, a first for the Cowboys this year, and gave up 23 first half points to Cooper Rush. Drew Lock threw more touchdowns to Falcons players than Giants players. The coup de grace for the week was Philadelphia’s defense, which has been the primary driver of their 10-game winning streak, forcing five turnovers but being unable to stop Jayden Daniels from marching down the field for a game-winning touchdown drive. It didn’t help that Philadelphia’s offense scored three touchdowns in the first quarter, losing Jalen Hurts to a concussion during the third touchdown drive, and then failed to score another touchdown the rest of the game. This all may sound like me complaining rather than inwardly reflecting on why I’ve slipped the last few weeks, and maybe it is, but I assure you that I am channeling my inner-Charlie Brown and reflecting on what I’ve done wrong too. The only way to know if it’s worked is to move on to week 17 picks.

Tier 1: Good Offenses Against Dead Teams (Season Record: 19-15)

Lions -3.5 over 49ers

Rams -5.5 over Cardinals

The injury bug has been the storyline for the San Francisco 49ers all season, but it says something about the Lions that in recent weeks they have been hit nearly as hard, with noticeable slippage in play some weeks, but continue to hold pole position in the NFC. They showed that they are still a few full steps ahead of the mediocre class in the NFC last week against the Bears, and unfortunately that’s where San Francisco sits currently. The 49ers will likely bounce back next year, but they no longer have any incentive to win, and their defense just isn’t good enough to get consistent stops against an offense as dynamic as the Lions have been.

Matt Stafford and company didn’t exactly “light it up” in New York last week but they did enough to win, and the Rams defense, particularly up front, seems to improve by the week. Arizona, one of my mid-season darlings, is clearly having their second half falter now and were eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Panthers last week. Los Angeles is still in a fight with Seattle for the NFC West crown, so don’t expect them to let off the gas. Kyren Williams has been a force in the run game, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend after Arizona allowed over 200 rushing yards to Carolina last week, including 68 rushing yards to Bryce Young.

Tier 2: The Most Important Games of the Weekend (Season Record: 25-17)

Packers +1.5 over Vikings

Broncos +3 over Bengals

From a “this game carries immense importance for both teams” standpoint, there aren’t two bigger games than these two this weekend. Two games in the next tier nearly match them, but these are the highlight games of the weekend for me.

Green Bay may not be able to win the NFC North, but seeding will be important. The Packers would much rather play the NFC West or NFC South champion in round one than the Eagles or having to play one of their NFC North rivals for a third time in the Wild Card round. Meanwhile, Minnesota is tied with Detroit atop the NFC North currently, but the Lions control the tiebreaker. If they can win this weekend, it puts them in a winner-takes-the-division, and probably the Wild Card round bye, game against the Lions in week 18. Personally, I love the way both the Packers and Vikings are playing down the stretch. These are two of the best coaches in the NFL. Jordan Love is emerging as an elite young quarterback and Sam Darnold is experiencing a career revival, making things unexpectedly difficult for Minnesota’s front office this offseason. The difference for me comes down to how much progress Green Bay’s defense has made recently. They have gotten after the passer the last two weeks, albeit against bad offensive lines, and more impressively they held up against Detroit’s vaunted rushing attack on Thursday night in the week before those two games. I think they will be able to do something similar to Aaron Jones and the Vikings rushing attack and that’s why they win this game.

Cincinnati is clinging to hope still, which is a minor miracle already, and Denver controls its own fate if they can win one of their last two games. No time like the present. The Bengals are still the same team but have caught better luck down the stretch and an easier schedule. Joe Burrow is having an excellent season and it’s unfair that his team has not given him more help. Denver’s defense will be the best the Bengals have seen in weeks though, and Cincinnati’s defense is still a sieve against any competent offense. That’s why I’m skeptical of the Bengals as favorites here.

Tier 3: Can and Can’t (Season Record: 25-31)

Chiefs -2.5 over Steelers

Seahawks -3.5 over Bears

Commanders -4.5 over Falcons

There’s a scene in the first Pirates of the Caribbean movie where Jack Sparrow tells Will Turner that the only rules that matter are these: what man can do and what a man can’t do. For example, I can bet on Pittsburgh as an underdog against the Chiefs. There’s a real chance that George Pickens will return, adding a vital downfield option back to the option. Patrick Mahomes is still not 100% after his high ankle sprain suffered in week 15, and the Pittsburgh pass rush could make things uncomfortable for him. What I can’t do is stomach betting against the Chiefs again and losing based on injury report question marks. This line is low, and Kansas City has won close games all year.

I can’t bet on the Bears. They have cost me enough this year. While Geno Smith has been more turnover prone than I like, this Seahawks defense has been wreaking havoc down the stretch. I fully expect the Bears offensive woes to continue this week.

Michael Penix Jr. seems to be the right answer for the Falcons at quarterback both now and in the future. The offensive playbook was clearly more open than it had been all year with Kirk Cousins at the helm. Some of this is the byproduct of playing the worst team in football, but it wasn’t all that. Jayden Daniels has been doing that all season for the Commanders though, and he looks close to completely healthy. I can and do trust the Commanders against the NFL’s middle of the pack.

Tier 4: A Christmas Day Slugfest and Three Frisky Non-Playoff Teams (Season Record: 30-25)

Texans +5.5 over Ravens

Patriots +4.5 over Chargers

Cowboys +9.5 over Eagles

Panthers +7.5 over Bucs

Christmas Day football shouldn’t disappoint this year with two AFC games with significant implications. Houston’s offense has failed to progress in C.J. Stroud’s second year partially due to significant injuries to the receiving corps, but also partially due to a bland offensive scheme and an offensive line that can’t get out of its own way with frequent penalties and missed blocking assignments. That gives me some pause backing them going against the Ravens, but the Texans defense is good, and they can keep Houston in this game. Baltimore has a strong offense, but they have a propensity to let teams hang around. They pulled away from Pittsburgh on Saturday largely due to two timely turnovers forced by the defense. Banking on this defense pulling the same feat two weeks in a row is probably a set up for disappointment.

Drake Maye has demonstrated both poise and promise as the future for the New England Patriots. This team isn’t good and has a lot of front office work to do to put a playoff contending team around Maye, but he has kept them competitive more often than they should have this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it again against a Chargers team that is a) traveling East and b) has been inconsistent down the stretch, particularly on offense. I don’t necessarily think New England is good enough to win this game, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them carrying a one-score lead into the 4^th quarter.

Dallas is quietly playing better down the stretch. It’s too little too late for this season. The run defense and rushing offense are still broken beyond repair, but Cooper Rush has actually been a passable (no pun intended) option at quarterback and a healthy Micah Parsons has given Dallas’s pass rush some teeth again. Jalen Hurts status, as of this writing, is completely up in the air, but I’d be mildly surprised if he suited up this week. Regardless, betting Philadelphia here is essentially a bet on Saquon Barkley to just shred for four quarters. That’s not the worst bet in the world, but the Eagles know they need to save some of that juice for the playoffs too.

Carolina is still a bad football team, just so we’re all clear. However, they have gone from uncompetitively bad to competitively bad, which is a significant step in the right direction for a franchise that was one of the more poorly run in football for the past several seasons. Tampa Bay is having trouble staying out of their own way down the stretch and they literally gave last Sunday night’s game away to the Cowboys. Expect Tampa Bay to do enough to win this week, but just enough. Banking on them to win by two scores is folly.

Tier 5: Stay Away from Meaningless Games (Season Record: 25-28)

Dolphins -6.5 over Browns

Colts -7.5 over Giants

Titans +1.5 over Jaguars

Jets +9.5 over Bills

Saints -1.5 over Raiders

The Colts and Dolphins are still clinging to a ghost of playoff chance and would be reasonable bets except for the fact that they are facing high spreads, and they aren’t good football teams. If Dorian Thompson-Robinson is healthy enough to suit up, I feel better about Miami’s chances of covering and would consider moving this game up a tier. But if Cleveland has to turn the reins back over to Jameis Winston, then all bets are off (pun intended). Winston could carve up the Dolphins defense with favorite target Jerry Jeudy and win Cleveland a game the front office probably doesn’t want to win, or he could throw five interceptions. You also have to remember that Miami will playing outdoors in frigid conditions, which is usually not a great bet.

Indianapolis is another team that can’t get out of its own way. They covered against an abysmal Titans team last week, but they tried as hard as they could to squander a 38-7 lead. Speaking of the Titans, unless you’re a glutton for pain you can just avoid the Titans-Jaguars and Saints-Raiders suckfests this weekend. For draft position purposes, the outcomes matter to respective fanbases, but just checking on the final scores after the fact is satisfactory. Don’t bet either of these games, but if pressed to a pick then I like the Titans and Saints slightly more, mostly because Mason Rudolph and Spencer Rattler are marginally more preferable options than their respective counterparts.

Call me crazy, but I think the Jets keep things close with Buffalo this weekend. Josh Allen suffered an injury to his throwing hand on Sunday, and I expect them to try to limit his exposure to hits even more than usual this weekend. That probably means simplifying the playbook and trying to limit the types of plays that make Josh Allen special: quarterback runs and deep balls requiring him to hold on to the ball longer. Based on this, I think the Jets keep this one closer than the oddsmakers have it currently.

Merry Christmas to all of you and thanks for reading this year. Here’s to a get-right week heading into 2025.

Last Week’s Record: 6-10

Season Record: 124-116

Cover Photo Courtesy of Peanuts Comic Strip/The People’s Therapist