Technically Christmas falls on the next NFL week, but you’ve gotta think Santa checks his naughty and nice list (twice) at least a week before Christmas right? Then again he delivers toys to a couple billion kids in a 24-hour period so maybe not. Anyway, we’re going to check our naughty and nice list this week and try to get the picks back on track after two losing weeks in a row.

Tier 1: Very Nice (Season Record: 19-13)

Eagles -3.5 over Commanders

Vikings -3.5 over Seahawks

It’s probably not a good sign for my inclusion on the nice list that this was my first thought when the word “nice” comes to mind but come on you thought it too.

Philadelphia got things back on track last week and A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts seem to be embracing the Greek interpretation of their city again. More importantly, this defense is firing on all cylinders and the running game proved that it can win consistently against a good defense. All of these are not only reasons to bet Philly this week against a Commanders team that hasn’t been the same since Jayden Daniels’ rib injury, but also reasons to start to feel good about them going into the playoffs.

Minnesota has sent me on a roller coaster ride this year, which frankly isn’t very nice. I have gone from thinking they were good to overrated to meh to underrated to pretty good to “scary in the playoffs” good all in the span of sixteen weeks. Sam Darnold’s play has largely contributed to the back-and-forth feelings, but he followed up a career week last week with a reasonable showing against a good Bears pass defense this week. Seattle’s defense will be another tall task for Darnold, but if he only has to outduel Sam Howell (a.k.a. Great Value Baker Mayfield) then I feel good about his chances. This line looks poised to drop to three, in which case you should jump all over this. Seattle’s offense looked completely inept without Geno Smith, and they weren’t exactly clicking before Geno went down.

Tier 2: Really Nice (Season Record: 24-16)

Broncos +3 over Chargers

Lions -6.5 over Bears

Again, maybe not the best sign for my “nice” list inclusion, but at least this one is seasonally appropriate.

Denver has been really nice to me this year. Truthfully, the only times they have really burned me are the rare occasions, like last week, when I’ve gone against them. Also, can I just vent for a minute about how royally the Colts ruined that cover last week? First, Jonathan Taylor pulls the classic “drop the ball a millisecond to early for a touchback instead of a touchdown” when the Colts were preparing to go up by two touchdowns. Then, A.D. Mitchell throws the disastrous trick play pick six. That’s just back breaking. Denver may have been aided by the stupidity of their opponents last week but they have consistently covered this year and now they are underdogs against a Los Angeles team who’s offense just hasn’t looked right since J.K. Dobbins went on the IR. This will probably be a low-scoring game and a good under bet too.

Detroit had been nice to me up until Thanksgiving, but they have now failed to cover the spread three weeks in a row. Maybe I should blame my own failure to adjust, but that requires a level of introspection that I might not possess. Mostly the reason for Detroit’s relative struggles of late have had to do with the defensive attrition they have suffered, starting with Aidan Hutchinson’s fractured leg. Alim McNeill and Carlton Davis are the latest injury bug victim. In particular, McNeill’s interior run-stopping presence will be sorely missed. However, Chicago has burned me all year and that dead cat bounce doesn’t seem like it’s coming for Thomas Brown…now watch the Bears light up Detroit this week.

Tier 3: Leave Some Cookies Out Just In Case (Season Record: 22-29)

Texans -1.5 over Chiefs

Rams -3 over Jets

Dolphins -1.5 over 49ers

Bucs -3.5 over Cowboys

Packers -13.5 over Saints

Houston is another team that has been a roller coaster to try to predict this season. They have mostly been bad or mediocre, but this talented defense will randomly just manhandle someone every now and again. Am I foolish to bank on this happening two weeks in a row? Maybe, but I don’t think Mahomes is playing this week, as the line would indicate, and he is the only elevator Kansas City has.

Los Angeles traveling to New York has all the makings of a trap game. West coast team going east. Jets coming off a rare win. Aaron Rodgers invoking the Toby Keith principle. A young secondary going against two extremely talented and crafty receivers. There’s enough to worry me about this game to dock it a few tiers, but the Rams are a better team and there’s something to be said for not trying to overthink things.

Miami really let me down last week, as they’ve done every time I’ve heavily backed them all year. This team isn’t very good, but neither is the current iteration of the 49ers. Another good example of a west coast team coming east, and Miami does always play better at home.

Tampa Bay only getting three-and-a-half against Dallas is another “feels suspiciously low” line. Do we suddenly believe in the Cowboys because they beat the Panthers? There are two things that I know that make this an easy Bucs bet for me. First, Dallas absolutely cannot stop the run. They haven’t done it all year. Second, Tampa Bay can run the ball on just about anybody. That mismatch alone is enough for me to bet Tampa Bay here.

New Orleans scoring late to nearly beat the Commanders said much more about Washington than it did about the Saints. Whether it’s Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler doesn’t matter, the Saints offense is bad and Green Bay’s defense has played significantly better and is becoming less reliant on turnovers to generate stops.

Tier 4: Hope You Have a Use For Raw Fossil Fuels (Season Record: 28-23)

Browns +7.5 over Bengals

Panthers +4.5 over Cardinals

Colts -4.5 over Titans

Bills -14.5 over Patriots

Cleveland is a bad football team, but Cincinnati’s defense is far too bad to be trusted with this many points. If this line got below seven I’d probably flip my pick, but if Cleveland gets the ball back within two scores late there’s a strong chance the Browns come in through the back door to cover. Although, there might be an equally likely chance they gift wrap a defensive touchdown to lose by three scores. It is the season of giving.

The Panthers just weren’t prepared to deal with the weight of expectations of being a favorite. Bryce Young showed signs of regression last week and the offense couldn’t get anything going against a bad Dallas defense. The good news is that they have returned to the comfort of the underdog role, and Arizona’s defense isn’t particularly good either. Kyler Murray has struggled down the stretch and seems good for at least one turnover per game. If Carolina can get back to running the ball effectively and capitalize on the Kyler Murray gift, this game should be close.

I can’t believe I’m backing the Colts again after what they did to me last week. That’s borderline sadistic. What can I say? I’m a glutton for pain I guess. My serious counterargument to that is: did you see what Will Levis did last week? Talk about the season of giving! If Will Levis is under center for Tennessee, then I just can’t fathom betting on them. And if he’s not? Well, there’s a reason it took until week 15 for Brian Callahan to bench him, and it wasn’t to give Will Levis more time to develop.

Normally, I’d say 14.5 points is a ton for an NFL spread and generally taking the points is the right call. This isn’t “normally” though. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady terrorized the Bills for nearly two decades. Those wounds are still fresh. Josh Allen is putting the finishing touches on an MVP campaign. New England is trying to improve their draft position. Cue a prime opportunity for Buffalo to exact some revenge.

Tier 5: Get Back Up To Mt. Krumpit (Season Record: 25-25)

Steelers +6.5 over Ravens

Giants +9.5 over Falcons

Jaguars +1.5 over Raiders

Pittsburgh let me down last week. I was sure Mike Tomlin had enough juice to cover that spread, but I’m not going against him getting points two weeks in a row, especially not in an AFC North game. This division is always weird and the games are always close. Theoretically, I am concerned that Baltimore can take notes from what the Eagles did running the ball last week and replicate that. I also worry about Pittsburgh’s inability to generate explosive plays without George Pickens. These are the reasons this is a tier five pick and no higher, but I’ll feel a lot dumber if I go against Tomlin here and lose than if I lose giving him the benefit of the doubt, which is well-deserved.

These last two games are true stay aways. Atlanta is bad and not to be trusted with a line this big, but the Giants are also awful. The Jaguars and Raiders might both actively try to lose this game. I also have no idea who is starting for Las Vegas. Desmond Ridder I guess? Don’t invest any time or money in these games. Watch some bowl games instead. The quarterback play might actually be better.

Last Week’s Record: 6-10

Season Record: 118-106

Cover Photo Courtesy of Matt Slocum/AP