I opened this season with a Ted Lasso-themed title and now, after my worst week of the season, it’s time to go back to that well. Much like a quarterback trying to shake off a bad interception, it’s time for me to put into practice one of Ted Lasso’s most famous and sage pieces of advice: “Be a goldfish.” Time to learn from last week and move on. Also, full disclosure, it’s been a long week so you’re only getting the high points from me. I doubt you’ll complain about getting the same picks for fewer words.

Tier 1: Barbecue Sauce (Season Record: 19-11)

Dolphins +2.5 over Texans

Lions -2.5 over Bills

Houston being favored over Miami, even at home, is the most baffling line of the week to me. These two teams are trending in completely opposite directions and the one trending down is the favorite. Houston has been vulnerable against tight ends all year too, and Jonnu Smith has been tearing it up recently. If you have Jonnu Smith in fantasy, start him. If you play daily fantasy (is that still a thing?), start him. Bet on him to score a touchdown.

Detroit has now failed to cover two weeks in a row, but this line is reasonably small, and Buffalo’s defense showed last week that they can be vulnerable to an efficient passing attack. I also can’t shake the image of what Baltimore did to them on the ground early in the season. There is a small part of me that fears Josh Allen picking apart Detroit’s man-heavy secondary, but the x-factors for me are the game being in Detroit and Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness.

Tier 2: Trying to Go Out Like Willie Nelson…On a High (Season Record: 24-15)

Seahawks +2.5 over Packers

Green Bay played well in a losing effort last week and I actually feel better about them going into the playoffs. The defense held up surprisingly well against Detroit’s rushing attack, and that was a major reason why they were in position to win or force overtime late. Seattle has also come on strong on the back half of the season, particularly defensively and along the offensive line. I still worry about the Seahawks’ offensive line’s ability to hold up against a good pass rush, but Green Bay doesn’t have that and that’s why I like Seattle to get a win at home.

Tier 3: Doing the Right Thing is Never the Wrong Thing (Season Record: 20-27)

Rams +3 over 49ers

Bengals -4.5 over Titans

Colts +3.5 over Broncos

Chargers -3 over Bucs

Matt Stafford made a wonderful demonstration Sunday of what a mid-to-late 30s quarterback can still do when he’s not coming off an Achilles’ injury. Maybe doing peyote in the desert with Joe Rogan doesn’t enhance male performance after all. Los Angeles is clicking right now, and while San Francisco was able to dust off the bottle and uncork a vintage Kyle Shanahan offensive performance last week I’m skeptical they can do it again. I also don’t think their secondary matches up well against a healthy Los Angeles’ skill group.

Cincinnati finally caught a break last week! Joe Burrow said as much in his post-game interview too. The fact that it was at Dallas’s expense is both hilarious and proof that when an unstoppable force (Cincinnati’s bad juju) meets an immovable object (Dallas’s well-deserved karmic retribution) that one is going to give. They shouldn’t need the breaks this week against a truly awful Titans team that appears to be in free fall.

Indianapolis vs Denver is the most interesting matchup of the week and the one with the highest number of possible outcomes. Most of that is attributable to how erratic the Colts, and especially their quarterback, have been this year. I do think the Colts have a good defense and that Denver could struggle to consistently move the ball into scoring position against them. I also think that Anthony Richardson’s boom-bust approach to quarterback lends itself to some explosive plays against this Denver secondary that only has one truly great player. The safest bet here seems to be on a close game, which is why I’m grabbing the points.

At this point in his career, Baker Mayfield isn’t exactly a player I expect to win games for Tampa Bay, but he’s capable of not losing them…most of the time. Tampa Bay’s ability to beat teams feels intrinsically linked to how effectively they can pound the rock, and they will struggle to do that more against this defense than most. That and the likely return of Ladd McConkey to bolster Los Angeles’s passing game are enough for me to give the nod to the Chargers here.

Tier 4: Do. You. Believe. In. Miracles. (Season Record: 24-22)

Chiefs -4.5 over Browns

Jets -3.5 over Jaguars

Steelers +5.5 over Eagles

Cardinals -6.5 over Patriots

Falcons -3.5 over Raiders

If you’re a Chiefs fan who doesn’t believe in miracles by now, you’re never going to. Kansas City finds new ways to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat each week. Funny enough, this week they face the king of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, Jameis Winston. Maybe all of that boils down to a backbreaking 3-point loss for Cleveland, but Jameis throwing a pick six down three to blow a surefire cover has already happened once this month, and I’m not emotionally prepared to be on the wrong side of it again so soon.

I can’t believe I’m betting on the Jets again in 2024, but here we are. For all my bloviating about Doug Pederson needing to be fired, Jacksonville has quietly been reasonable against the spread over the last several weeks, 46-point loss to Detroit aside. I just can’t bet on Mac Jones here. Jacksonville won entirely in spite of him last week, and even if the Jets defense is a shell of what they were last year, Mac Jones will struggle to move the ball on them.

Again, we’ve returned to Mike Tomlin’s playhouse. Road underdog against a team on a nine-game winning streak but with obvious internal turmoil? Coaching a limited offense without his best playmaker? None of that matters. This feels like a quintessential Tomlin WTF win.

I’m off Arizona after falling apart again last week and ready to short Kyler Murray second-half stock. However, New England has every incentive not to win any of the rest of their games and I can’t, in good conscience, put money on them.

I could say the same thing about the Raiders that I said about New England. I could probably also say the same about Atlanta and Kirk Cousins that I said about Arizona and Kyler Murray. Las Vegas is the worst team in football though and Atlanta does have talent. This line is either three points too low or the ultimate trap line.

Tier 5: You Say Impossible, But All I Hear Is “I’m Possible” (Season Record: 25-21)

Commanders -7.5 over Saints

Giants +16.5 over Ravens

Panthers -2.5 over Cowboys

Bears +7 over Vikings

New Orleans’ season is effectively over. They’ve fired their coach. Their quarterback is out indefinitely with an injury. Outside of Alvin Kamara, every other important offensive player on their roster is injured. Their defense isn’t in any better shape. Washington has been fading down the stretch, but this is a prime opportunity to whip themselves back into shape for the playoff run.

New York’s season is also effectively over, but Baltimore rarely shows much interest or effort to cover spreads this large. I don’t really have any more to say about this game honestly. Don’t watch it…and probably don’t bet on it either.

How far has Carolina come this season? If I told you at the beginning of the season that Carolina would be favored over Dallas in December, you probably would assume that Dallas had a #1 seed all but locked and was playing only backups. Well, Dallas is playing a lot of backups, but it’s because of injury and not rest, unfortunately. They also just aren’t very good and can’t seem to have anything go their way. It doesn’t help that their run defense is softer than an overripe banana, and one of the primary drivers of Carolina’s improved play recently has been the ability to lean on Chuba Hubbard in the run game. Look for Carolina to control the game on the ground and take another big step forward: winning when it’s expected of you.

Can I interest anyone in a delayed dead cat bounce for Chicago? They caught the perfect storm against San Fran last week and Minnesota may be getting overvalued after a once-in-a-lifetime Sam Darnold performance. The Bears defense theoretically is good enough to keep them in this game, but that’s been true all year.

Last Week’s Record: 4-9

Season Record: 112-96

Cover Photo Courtesy of Jim Rassol/The Palm Beach Post/USA TODAY Network