Thanksgiving week has come and gone and now we are entering the home stretch of the NFL season. Some teams are vying for home-field advantage, some are just trying to make the playoff field, and there’s increasingly crowded competition to “be manure for Shadeur” or “fall on the sword for Cam Ward”. As the weeks progress, expect there to be more intense “must-win” games and more stayaway games between teams trying to lose. This is the natural order of things.

Tier 1: The Super Bowl Favorites (Season Record 19-8)

Lions -3.5 over Packers

Bills -4.5 over Rams

Eagles -12.5 over Panthers

Three teams currently have +500 or better odds to win the Super Bowl on Fanduel. You could probably guess based on the context cluse those teams are the Lions, Bills and Eagles. Detroit has been a force of nature all season. They lost a headscratcher in week two to Tampa Bay, but that was early and they have been perfect since. Some may point to Chicago getting back in the game against them last week as signs of slippage, but that’s not what happened. Detroit left plenty of points on the board early by not finishing drives and losing a fumble inside the Bears’ five late in the first half. This team is completely fine. They went out to Lambeau in the elements and took down Green Bay earlier in the year. The Packers are playing better than they were at that time and Jordan Love is healthier than he was coming off the opening week MCL sprain, but I just can’t pick against Detroit at home with a line this low. Maybe Green Bay will prove me wrong, but it this team gets home field throughout the NFC playoffs I’m not sure who’s beating Detroit in that building.

Buffalo has been the pleasant surprise of the season. I, along with most others, expected them to be good again this year but expected a step back after losing so much production on the defensive side of the ball. Instead, Josh Allen has gone in full MVP mode and is playing the best football of his career, and the defense has acquitted itself nicely other than one bad performance against the Ravens early in the season. Their homefield advantage looks very different from Detroit’s (read: snowier) but they are another team I struggle to see losing at home in that environment. This week they have to travel to sunny L.A. to take on the Rams, where Jared Verse is quickly becoming a terror on the defensive line, but I do believe that Allen can attack this young secondary and Buffalo’s running game can neutralize Los Angeles’s pass rush.

Philadelphia stumbled out of the gate, and it looked like Nick Sirianni’s days in the City of Brotherly Love were numbered. Then, the improbable happened. Philadelphia beat the brakes off Cincinnati and apparently took the brakes off their rushing offense. Saquon Barkley is losing his mind down the stretch, maybe literally with plays like this. Perhaps more importantly for Philadelphia’s Super Bowl hopes, the defense has transformed into one of the top units in the league against both the run and the pass. Carolina has played much better recently, but they haven’t played a team nearly this good (sorry Kansas City) and the Eagles are in the running for the top seed in the NFC, currently one game behind Detroit. I want to continue to back the Bryce Young redemption story, but I think this Philly defense and running game are too good.

Tier 2: The Up-and-Comers (Season Record: 23-14)

Cardinals -2.5 over Seahawks

Chargers +3.5 over Chiefs

Neither the Cardinals nor the Chargers are winning the Super Bowl this year, but this season has still been a huge step forward for both franchises. Jim Harbaugh seems to have been the skeleton key to unlocking Justin Herbert’s full potential and the strides the defense has made with Harbaugh and Jesse Minter are astounding. In Arizona, Kyler Murray has finally looked like a true franchise quarterback and Jonathan Gannon, last week’s game management aside, has done a good job coaching this team. I know Arizona just lost to Seattle in a game that I was confident the Cardinals would win as an underdog. Maybe I don’t learn from my mistakes, or maybe this division is just too close for one contender to sweep the other one.

I hate to be the pile-on guy, but something clearly isn’t quite right in Kansas City, as everyone with eyes has already pointed out. The downfield passing attack has been broken, but more concerning is the declining play of the defense. Kansas City’s pass rush doesn’t seem as ferocious as it did early in the season and this secondary is beatable. If Los Angeles’s running game doesn’t fizzle without J.K. Dobbins then they will move the ball here. We’ve seen worse Chargers teams play close games against better Chiefs teams.

Tier 3: Bouncing Back (Season Record: 19-25)

Bears +3.5 over 49ers

Dolphins -6.5 over Jets

Bengals -5.5 over Cowboys

Speaking of bounces, have I made you all subscribers to the dead cat bounce theory yet? We have another chance for proof of concept this weekend with the Bears heading to San Francisco. San Francisco’s top two running backs, including Christian McCaffrey in case you forgot, are heading to the injured reserve and this is officially a lost season for San Francisco. Meanwhile, the Bears are still trying to get reps in for their young quarterback and have everything to play for from a development standpoint. Thomas Brown seems to be extremely well-liked and well-respected in that locker room and I expect to see a different energy from Chicago this week.

Miami has been considerably better since Tua’s return and while they got blown out by Green Bay on Thanksgiving night, we discussed last week that was going to be a cold weather outlier. They get to return to warm and sunny South Beach this week against a Jets team that is just flat-out bad. For about three quarters, I thought the Jets were going to spoil one of my top Sunday bets and finally looked like a quasi-decent team, but then it all fell apart. This team just doesn’t have it, and it doesn’t seem like their quarterback does anymore either.

On paper, this should have been a fascinating Monday night game. That was…before the season started, and we realized neither of these teams are good. Both defenses are bad, but the main difference here is that while Dallas also has a bad offense and a banged-up star receiver, Cincinnati has Joe Burrow playing the best football of his life and two healthy star receivers. We are going to look back at this Joe Burrow season and ask ourselves, “How the hell did this team not make the playoffs?”

Tier 4: The Pretenders (Season Record: 22-21)

Falcons +5.5 over Vikings

Bucs -6.5 over Raiders

Steelers -6.5 over Browns

Kirk Cousins revenge game anyone? At least this isn’t a primetime spot, because while Aaron Rodgers has very loudly looked washed up, Kirk Cousins has done the same very quietly. There have been more than rumblings of suggestions that the Michael Penix era should start in Atlanta sooner rather than later. Another statuesque ineffective performance against a blitz happy defense might do the trick, but then again Minnesota has its own issues. Sam Darnold can be turnover happy and holds this offense back despite all its skill position talent. The defense is good but if Bijan Robinson can get going on the ground and keep the Atlanta attack balanced that may be enough to slow down Brian Flores’s blitz packages. If you ask me who I think wins this game, I’d say Minnesota, but Atlanta is like that pesky fly that just keeps hanging around and hanging around in games and I expect this game to be no different.

Las Vegas has no quarterback, a lame duck coach and no future. They pushed Kansas City to the brink. That was the last accomplishment for this team this season. Now it’s time to position to acquire the quarterback of the future. Tampa Bay continues to pound the rock effectively with rookie Bucky Irving having a career performance on Sunday. That was just enough to overcome the occasional terrible Baker Mayfield performance. Mayfield doesn’t tend to make those kinds of games frequent occurrences, so expect him to rebound this week and the Bucs to continue their ground and pound attack.

There are times when Mike Tomlin is a full-go bet and there are times to beware. Nearly a touchdown favorite against a division opponent is one of the latter times. However, the sting of watching Jameis Winston throw away (literally) a certain cover is still too fresh for me to put my hand back in that fire. I’m going with Pittsburgh this week fully aware that may be an overreaction and a bad gambling strategy, but sometimes your sanity is more important that winning and losing and financial gain. It also seems highly unlikely to me that Cleveland would sweep Pittsburgh.

Tier 5: Someone Has To Win…Maybe (Season Record: 25-19)

Titans -3.5 over Jaguars

Saints -4.5 over Giants

Tennessee and Jacksonville have been firmly entrenched on my “Do Not Bet” list since the beginning of the season. I should probably abide by that and just stay away from this game. Let me rephrase that, I should abide by that and just stay away from this game. But, if you are a complete degenerate and have to have the action, I would say bet Tennessee against a Jacksonville team without Trevor Lawrence.

New Orleans has had the longest dead cat bounce of the season so far and the new energy they have had under Darren Rizzi has been evident. It’s not enough against good or even decent teams, as we saw last week, but it’s enough to beat a rudderless Giants team looking to hit the reset button.

Last Week’s Record: 10-6

Season Record: 108-87

Cover Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/Morry Gash