Feast week is finally here! It’s one of the most beautiful holidays of the year. The perfect marriage of overindulgence in food, overindulgence in family and a proper amount of indulgence in football. The horn of plenty is, umm, plentiful(?). The turkey is roasting. Let’s get ready for five full days of football, when you dip your toes into both the NFL and college pools. Over Thanksgiving weeks past, I have given you a glimpse at my favorite sides and desserts of Thanksgiving, but this year you get to see my whole spread. My wife and I are preparing to spend our 5^th Thanksgiving together now (love you bird) and we have our established food traditions and are ready to share them with you.

Tier 1: Dressing (Season Record: 17-8)

Chargers -1.5 over Falcons

Seahawks -1.5 over Jets

There are three kinds of people: those who call it dressing, those who call it stuffing and those who don’t eat it regardless of what it’s called. The last group is a gang of psychopaths and will not be addressed in this column. As far as the dressing vs. stuffing debate, while I agree that “stuffing” said dish in your bird is a perfectly fine way to eat it, I would also contend that relegating it to that role is a missed opportunity for myriad other great uses for this dish. Can it stand alone to sop up additional grave and cranberry sauce? Absolutely. Is it perfectly fine in its own right as a dish? One hundred percent. Does it make an excellent base for a leftover thanksgiving bowl with shredded turkey, cranberry sauce and gravy dumped on top? This is perhaps its best and most delicious use. It’s not just “stuffing” it is a delectable and necessary “dressing” for all your Thanksgiving plate applications and purposes. Debate solved.

These two picks violate one of the biggest rules of regular season NFL gambling: beware of the West coast team playing in the Eastern time zone. This is especially true for the Chargers who are doing that on a short week and notoriously poor going east. Here’s my defense of the pick: they earned that reputation (along with the reputation for “Chargering”) before Jim Harbaugh came in and turned things around and the Chargers are so much better than the Falcons that I just don’t think it matters. J.K. Dobbins almost assuredly won’t play this week with an MCL injury, but I still think Los Angeles can have success on the ground. Atlanta doesn’t excel at anything defensively and I think Justin Herbert can have his way with them…let’s just hope Quentin Johnston hangs onto the ball this week. Seattle waltzed into Atlanta and took care of business in Week 7 against the Falcons. I believe Los Angeles can do something similar this week.

Even though it would essentially be the same bet, I would feel slightly more at ease if it were the Jets favored by one-and-a-half rather than the Seahawks. That’s completely psycho I know, but we all have our own neuroses. There is a world where the talented but underperforming Jets front seven overwhelms Seattle’s defense, but I don’t think that’s the most likely scenario. Seattle is in the throes of a heated division battle and the Jets have nothing left to play for this year. This seems ripe for a Seahawks win and a huge D.K. Metcalf game. Also, Seattle’s defense has quietly been excellent over the last few weeks and the Jets offensive struggles are well documented. This feels like a good opportunity to bet the under too.

Tier 2: Turkey and Gravy (Season Record: 21-13)

Packers -3.5 over Dolphins

Colts -2.5 over Patriots

Cardinals +3.5 over Vikings

For all you turkey haters out there, turkey is the star of the plate on Thanksgiving day and any statement to the contrary is slander that will not be tolerated. If you don’t like turkey, that just means you haven’t had it cooked properly yet. It doesn’t matter if you roast it, smoke it or fry it if you do the bird right then it is delicious. For our table, we roast a turkey breast (there are only two of us) after browning the skin and serve it with a shallot porcini gravy that just throws a nice umami bomb right on top of a beautifully tender cut of turkey.

Miami is playing a night game at Lambeau Field in November. Temps will already be into the 20s by kickoff and the Dolphins cold weather struggles are well known and very real. Expecting anything different this time around feels like folly. Meanwhile, Green Bay is fresh off curbstomping the 49ers to the brink of playoff elimination and feel like they are heating up at the right time for an end of season run into the playoffs. Miami has also played much better recently and I would be remiss not to mention that, but we saw what happened to Miami at Arrowhead in the playoffs last year. If you got Peacock to watch that game, it’s an image you probably have a hard time shaking when looking to this game. I know I do.

Thanks to the nature of Anthony Richardson’s unique physical prowess and relative inexperience playing quarterback, Indianapolis has one of the highest ceiling, lowest floor offenses in the NFL. We’ve pretty much seen the gamut this year. Hell, we pretty much saw the gamut against the Jets two weeks ago. New England has significant talent deficits against most teams, and the Colts are no exception. Also, Jonathan Taylor can be the ideal floor raiser for this offense. I expect the Patriots to have trouble forcing Richardson into obvious passing downs and Indianapolis to win this game on the legs of both Taylor and Richardson. Drake Maye is putting forth an admirable effort for this New England team, but the lack of talent around him is just too much for a rookie quarterback to elevate.

Arizona finally burned me last week getting completely shut down by a Seattle defense that is playing well. There is some small misgiving in the back of my head backing Arizona against this Brian Flores-led defense after last week, but Minnesota has been flirting with disaster against much worse teams than the Cardinals for weeks. I do think that Kyler Murray’s abilities as a runner can be the perfect foil for Flores’ hyperaggressive scheme. I also think Arizona’s rushing attack and ability to stay ahead of the chains could limit the number of exotic blitz opportunities for Minnesota’s defense. All in all, I think Arizona can score enough to keep this game tight at least and if the defense can turn Sam Darnold over a time or two, not the most difficult task any defense has been beset, then they can win this game outright.

Tier 3: Macaroni and Cheese (Season Record: 18-22)

Lions -10.5 over Bears

Bengals -2.5 over Steelers

Bills -6.5 over 49ers

Browns +5.5 over Broncos

If you read “Macaroni and Cheese” and your mind went to a blue box, the door’s right over there. Don’t let it hit you where the good Lord split you. Here’s how you make your Thanksgiving macaroni and cheese: first, you make your bechamel sauce on Thanksgiving morning while you cook your noodles; second, you mix the noodles and bechamel; then, you stir in some fresh mozzarella and cheese of your choice and number (personally I do half a cup of cheddar and half a cup of gouda); last, you put that all in a cast iron and top it with breadcrumbs and butter and bake to golden perfection. The only complaint about this dish, lodged more by my wife than me, is that it makes a huge dish so proportion things appropriately for the size of your gathering and the amount of desired leftovers.

For most of my life, betting on Detroit on Thanksgiving Day felt like a fool’s errand. Now it feels stupid not to. Detroit is pounding teams with reckless abandon right now, and I don’t expect that to change against a Chicago team with a lame duck coach and a poor offensive line. Caleb Williams has looked better the last two weeks with Thomas Brown replacing Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator, and he can continue to build on that going into his sophomore campaign, but this Lions team is just too much for a Chicago team with nothing left to win this season.

Cincinnati is probably toast for this year, but they still have a slim chance to make the playoffs with no residual margin for error. Joe Burrow has also been far too good for this to be the Bengals record. Here’s what I see for the rest of the Bengals season: they go on a win streak starting now and have a puncher’s change to make the playoffs heading to Pittsburgh in Week 18 where they lose on a defensive or special teams gaffe that makes Mike Tomlin grin maniacally in his postgame press conference. Pittsburgh will very likely kill this Bengals season…it just won’t happen this weekend.

In the back of my mind, there’s this lingering feeling that a San Francisco team in desperation mode with Brock Purdy back in the lineup can pull together a vintage Kyle Shanahan performance and win this game. That’s possible, but I don’t think it’s the most likely scenario. Buffalo got a much-needed rest week after pulling out all the stops to beat Kansas City the week before. The Bills are playing good football right now and I think they keep rolling this week against a San Francisco team that’s had a year from hell.

Sean Payton is the Phil Mickelson of the NFL. He’s definitely good. He absolutely knows he’s good and isn’t afraid to tell anyone who’ll listen how good he is. He’s definitely not as good as he thinks he is.

All that to say, Denver has paid me handsomely this year and I should express a little gratitude, but this Monday night game feels ripe for a dud. Cleveland is playing better with Jameis Winston under center. The Browns defense has never been the problem, and they will make life difficult for Bo Nix. I’m not saying Cleveland wins this one outright, but I think putting this in the Vegas zone ensures that Denver bettors will be sweating this one out.

Tier 4: The Rotating Dessert Menu (Season Record: 19-20)

Cowboys -3.5 over Giants

Texans -4.5 over Jaguars

Rams -3 over Saints

Eagles +3 over Ravens

The most difficult thing about preparing a Thanksgiving meal for two is deciding on a dessert. You can’t just make the full spread. That leads to either tons of food waste, diabeetus or both. You have to just settle on one, so my wife and I have decided to just rotate and pick a new dessert each year. My wife’s favorite dessert is cheesecake, so in year’s past we’ve done baked apple cheesecake (magnificent), pumpkin cheesecake (seasonally appropriate) and pecan pie cheesecake (a strong hybrid dessert option). This year we’re stepping outside the box with a white chocolate cranberry crème brulee. I’ll let you know about it next week.

This afternoon Thanksgiving game won’t do a thing to help anyone’s post-meal nausea and heartburn. In fact, if it weren’t for the sake of the holiday, I would almost argue that you shouldn’t even watch this game. Forsaking the afternoon Thanksgiving Day game feels wrong, but hopefully the NFL and the Cowboys give us something better to watch next year. This is a yuckfest but Dallas still has more roster talent than the Giants and Cooper Rush showed last week that he’s not a completely lost cause. Tommy Cutlets did not show us that last week…

Houston was the big letdown of the week last week, but they get to play a team coached by Doug Pederson this week. This is a prime opportunity for a get right game heading into the home stretch of the regular season. I do worry about the fact that Houston’s offensive line seems like it’s regressing, and they cannot stop themselves from committing backbreaking penalties. Those are good reasons to bet against Houston…in the playoffs and in non-divisional games.

I’ve waffled back and forth on this Rams and Saints game a few times, but what I keep coming back to is Stafford-McVay-Kupp-Nacua. That quadrumvirate is a more steadying force than anything the Saints have outside of Alvin Kamara. Defensively, I don’t believe that New Orleans can do the things necessary to make life difficult for Matt Stafford and I kind of think he’s in for a big game. New Orleans has played better since Darren Rizzi took over from Dennis Allen and I still regret not taking advantage of their dead cat bounce win a few weeks ago, but trying to make up for that miss now by betting on them feels like the wrong “double or nothing” play.

Philadelphia is playing as well as any team in the NFL right now and Saquon Barkley is making a strong case to be a legitimate MVP candidate, despite playing a decidedly undervalued position. Baltimore flexed on Monday night and showed us they are still one of the upper echelon AFC teams. Truthfully, I think this game comes down to the wire with how well both teams are playing and that makes grabbing the points feel like the right call. I’d feel better if this line got to three-and-a-half, but I don’t think that’s happening either.

Tier 5: Green Beans and Cranberry Sauce (Season Record: 23-18)

Chiefs -12.5 over Raiders

Commanders -5.5 over Titans

Panthers +5.5 over Bucs

I’m not trying to denigrate green beans or cranberry sauce by ranking them here. They both serve essential functions for the Thanksgiving plate: color, diversity, vitamins and minerals. Let’s be honest. We don’t have the healthiest society in the world in the U.S. and our diets are a big part of that. Traditional Thanksgiving fare kinda highlights that in the best and worst ways. We need something on our plate that isn’t a protein or simple carb. That’s where green beans come in. They are green. They are vegetables. They have fiber. That’s all helpful. Cranberry sauce, jellied or whole, has some vitamins in it, adds some festive color to the plate and tastes great mixed in with dressing and gravy in a leftover bowl.

In another trend bucking move this week, we’re taking the Chiefs to cover a big spread. I’ve been guilty in the past of discounting the emotional aspects of football and trying to reduce it to a math equation and a science. I’ve learned the error of my ways. Kansas City lost a stunner to the Raiders on Christmas Day last year and people have been talking about it ever since, despite the Chiefs going on to win a second consecutive Super Bowl. That loss was one of the few black marks on an otherwise phenomenal season. Now they get the opportunity to avenge that lost in another holiday special “all eyes on us” television spot. If I know anything about Pat Mahomes and Travis Kelce, this is an opportunity they won’t pass up.

Washington’s star had started to fade even before last Sunday’s baffling, but wildly entertaining loss to the Cowboys. Jayden Daniels has still been good but not nearly as efficient as he was earlier in the year and the running game has taken a hit with Austin Ekeler likely out this week with a concussion. However, they are playing a Tennessee team quarterbacked by Will Levis, whom I refuse to bet on. I also refuse to buy Hellmann’s mayonnaise because of him. Mayo Commanders cover this week and Will Levis time as a starting quarterback in the NFL be brief. I know Tennessee pulled off an upset of Houston last week, but that had so much more to do with Houston’s issues than the Titans making progress. Brian Callahan did a good job last week and deserves some credit…Will Levis did not and does not.

We’ve reached a point in the year where I think it has to be stated that the Carolina Panthers are no longer the worst team in the NFL. That distinction probably goes to the Raiders or Jaguars at this point. Bryce Young has been much better the last few weeks and Carolina managed to tie things up with Kansas City before a vintage Mahomes backbreaker drive to set up a game-winning field goal. Tampa Bay has performed admirably since losing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Liam Coen and Baker Mayfield both deserve heaps of credit for how competitive they’ve been, and a large part of that has been due to how well they have been able to run the ball. In fact, both Carolina and Tampa Bay have managed to stay competitive on the backs of better than anticipated rushing offenses. I could see this being another close game. I also think with both teams’ propensity for running the ball this game could fly by and is a setup to bet the under.

Last Week’s Record: 8-5

Season Record: 98-81

Cover Photo Courtesy of Mike Nowak/Los Angeles Chargers