Next week is one of the best weeks of the year. The marriage of food and family and football is the ideal cornucopia of comfort. There’s nothing quite as enjoyable as a heaping plate of turkey and dressing surrounded by friends and family and watching another Cowboys loss. We aren’t there yet though. This is preparation week. The slate is meager, and this is the week where we can tighten the belts and fast a little bit to prepare for the coming feast. If you, unlike me, need a palate cleanser before overindulging in football over the Thanksgiving weekend, this isn’t the worst week to skip and go for a Fall Festival party or a cool hike in the woods. However, if you’re a degenerate like me, take notes, get that turkey breast in the freezer, and still maybe take a walk because exercise is important.

Tier 1: Riding the Hot Hands (Season Record: 15-7)

Eagles -2.5 over Rams

Broncos -5.5 over Raiders

Cardinals +1.5 over Seahawks

This might be committing a cardinal sin of gambling this week, but I think there are reasons beyond simply “bet this team because they are hot” for backing Philly, Denver and Arizona this week. Philadelphia seems to have turned things around. I was slow to come around on the Eagles. There are still reasons to be skeptical. Jalen Hurts still avoids the middle of the field like it’s the “floor is lava” game and Nick Sirianni can coach this team out of a win on any given week, but it’s time to give the Eagles their due. They are playing better on a more consistent basis than the Rams right now and I think they can attack this young Rams secondary with their elite weapons.

Las Vegas is awful. They are joining the Doug Pederson-led Jaguars on the “Do Not Bet” list. Meanwhile, Denver is quietly playing pretty good football. There’s going to come a time where Denver is going to be overwhelmed by a superior team (see Week 9 vs. Ravens), but that is going to be a playoff opportunity. This week bet the Broncos and feel assured that they will handle the bad teams on their schedule.

Why isn’t Arizona getting more respect? What is it about this team that we don’t trust? I suspect that it’s a few reasons: a) Kyler Murray is still considered a “too small” quarterback with a Call of Duty problem by the general population b) they don’t have one “elite” unit and c) the defense seems like it could be vulnerable to the crème de la crème of NFL offenses. Seattle is not the crème de la crème, however, and their offensive line is a detriment. D.K. Metcalf’s return does make them a little more fearsome, but Arizona has been the better team for weeks and this line doesn’t reflect that.

Tier 2: A Leap (or a Small Step) of Faith (Season Record: 20-12)

Packers -2.5 over 49ers

Patriots +7 over Dolphins

Green Bay and San Francisco are two good, but deeply flawed football teams. San Francisco is as talented as any team in the league, especially offensively, but they haven’t been able to get healthy all year. Their secondary is decent but not great, and their special teams has been putrid. Green Bay is overly reliant on chunk plays offensively and I don’t trust their defense with a game on the line, but they have a quarterback capable of putting a game on his back and one of the most trustworthy in-game coaches around, and that’s enough to secure my bet in this game. I do worry about them come playoff time against a team capable of limiting big plays and being willing to sit in a two high safety look for four quarters, but their young receivers and Josh Jacobs can get free for some big plays against San Francisco.

There’s just something I can’t quite get past with this Miami team. Maybe it’s how bad they were without Tua, but since he’s returned, the Dolphins have nearly beaten the red-hot Bills, beat the Rams on Monday Night Football and blasted the awful Raiders. That’s not a terrible three-game stretch, so maybe I’m off base here, but there’s something different about the Patriots the last few weeks. Drake Maye has the team playing more inspired football on both sides of the ball, and I think he can make some plays against this Dolphins defense. I also think Rhamondre Stevenson can have some success on the ground against this defense, and I’m making him my GPSATB for the week. Defensively, New England is playing better and while I think it would be foolish to expect them to shut down Miami’s attack, I do think they can get a handful of stops and that should be enough for a cover.

Tier 3: Can You Take Me Higher? (Season Record 17-21)

Lions -7.5 over Colts

Texans -8.5 over Titans

Forgive the Creed reference, but even Scott Stapp couldn’t drive these lines high enough for me to give pause this week. Detroit is rolling people right now and looking like they enjoy doing it. Indianapolis is significantly better than the Jaguars, but I’m not betting against Detroit, especially not indoors against a non-elite team.

The latter is more of a bet against Tennessee than a bet on Houston, but I do think the Texans are playing better football of late. It’s hard to tout running all over the Cowboys as signs of improvement in the running game, but it’s at least more reassuring than not running all over the Cowboys. C.J. Stroud seems to have done a better job taking care of the football and the return of Nico Collins gives him a big target for the red zone and a home run threat. Collins also alleviates a lot of pressure placed on Tank Dell. Tennessee is decent defensively, but their offense is putrid and Will Levis loves to score points for the other team.

Tier 4: Trust Issues (Season Record: 18-19)

Bears +3.5 over Vikings

Chargers +3 over Ravens

Will I ever quit the Bears? They have a lame duck coach, a poor offensive line, and a struggling rookie quarterback. What’s not to love? And yet, the prospect of getting points betting on one of the best pass defenses in the league going against a spiraling Sam Darnold is just tantalizing. I’m fully prepared to feel stupid when they flash the Caleb Williams 6/23 for 78 yards passing line early in the 4^th quarter Sunday with Chicago down 13-3 and it feels like 130-3, but I still think this is the right decision.

Let’s get this out of the way first: Baltimore is a better team than Los Angeles. There it’s in the open. I say that confidently, boldly and truthfully, and yet…and yet and yet and yet. There is something about the way Jim Harbaugh has flipped the old “Chargering” joke completely on its head. Something about this makes me not just intrigued by the Chargers in prime time. It makes me believe in the Chargers in prime time. I think they will be able to move the ball on Baltimore, and much like the Cincinnati game from two Thursdays ago, I think we’re in for a back-and-forth thriller in this one. I’d love this line to move to three-and-a-half too, but either way I think grabbing the points is the play.

Tier 5: Just a Bit Too High (Season Record: 20-17)

Browns +3.5 over Steelers

Giants +5.5 over Bucs

Cowboys +10.5 over Commanders

Panthers +10.5 over Chiefs

Cleveland is another terrible team that I just can’t seem to quit, and if you called me insane and bet Pittsburgh here, I don’t really have a strong argument to say that’s a bad plan. Humor me for a second, though. Pittsburgh beat Baltimore without scoring a touchdown on Sunday. Cleveland’s defense is at least as good, if not better, than Baltimore’s. Russell Wilson’s play has, if anything, declined in the last few weeks. Jameis Winston is overdue for a random great game, and the AFC North is just a strange, strange division. Did I convince you? It’s ok. I haven’t completely convinced myself either.

I would argue that the next three games are all just stay aways in real life, but I challenge myself to give you picks for every game every week, so here goes nothing. Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay have performed admirably since losing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in the same game a few Mondays ago but laying five-and-a-half points with them against any NFL team seems foolish. Dallas is bad, but Washington’s offense is showing signs of returning to earth in the last few weeks and I don’t think this line accurately reflects that. I expect the Commanders to win this game as the better team, but I’m not sure their defense can take full advantage of the Cowboys deficiencies at quarterback. Meanwhile, two weeks ago I wrote about the Chiefs to expect them to “do just enough to get a win. No more. No less.” That was the week that they won on a walk-off field goal block. I’m not sure they will take this game that close to the wire, but I also don’t know that they’ll take much initiative in covering a two-score spread, especially not when they have a Black Friday revenge game to prepare for.

Last Week’s Record: 9-5

Season Record: 90-76

Cover Photo Courtesy of Bleeding Green Nation/SB Nation