For most of the season, I have tried to come to you each week not only with picks, but also with some non-football themed tiers. That gives us a little something extra and fun to talk about, and it shows that I’m not just a one-dimensional meathead (no offense if that is how you categorize yourself.) We aren’t doing that this week though. This week I’m going full meathead. We’re just gonna “talk ball.”

Tier 1: Defense (And Coaching) Wins Championships (Season Record: 13-7)

Steelers +3 over Ravens

Broncos -2.5 over Falcons

Let me start by saying, there are a lot of bets that I like this week, but none that I love. These are my “best” bets, but I don’t love them as much as some of the Tier 1 bets of weeks’ past. For starters, I’ll be the first to recognize that there is a real scenario where Baltimore just pastes the Steelers this week. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson feast on the ground and the Ravens defense, which is good against the run, forces Russell Wilson into obvious passing downs and he can’t connect on his “moon balls.” Here are the reasons I don’t think that happens though: a) Mike Tomlin 2) the Steelers defense is also top tier and plays well at both aspects of the game and d) Pittsburgh’s pass rush vs. Baltimore’s offensive line is the single biggest mismatch of the game. This would be a bigger advantage for Pittsburgh if Alex Highsmith weren’t out with an ankle sprain, but I think T.J. Watt and co. can still force Lamar off-platform more than the Ravens would prefer.

Here’s my weekly confession: I was not a believer in the Denver Broncos. I was not a believer in post-New Orleans Sean Payton. I was not a believer in Bo Nix. I still don’t buy Bo Nix as a “top of the draft board” guy like Sean Payton apparently did, but I do think Payton has done a good job with Nix and, to Bo Nix’s credit, he doesn’t actively lose his team games. Bo is a serviceable NFL quarterback who is capable of manning the ship for a team with a good defense and reasonable supporting cast. The same can’t be said for other quarterbacks in this league. Denver isn’t a team I see making waves in the playoffs, but their defense is good enough to win them this game at home against a meh Falcons team.

Tier 2: Division Battles (Season Record: 20-10)

Packers -5.5 over Bears

49ers -6.5 over Seahawks

This Bears’ season really went from promising to disastrous in a hurry huh? I guess that’s what happens when you lose on a Hail Mary, give up a touchdown on a halfback draw at the end of a half and fail to score a touchdown against a bottom three team in a three-week stretch. Matt Eberflus is fortunate to still have a job at this point and his close to entering the “Doug Pederson Zone” of betting against him until he’s fired. Green Bay is coming off of a bye, so they’ll be fresh and Jordan Love has had a two week opportunity to get his groin back to 100%. Smart people have pointed out all year that this Packers offense is boom or bust, which makes it less trustworthy than other similarly rated units, but at this point in the season I’ve come to expect more booms against Chicago than busts.

This is the week I expect San Francisco to return to form. Seattle may be coming off a bye, but it’s still unclear if they will have D.K. Metcalf back. Until they do, it’s hard to trust this offense without a safety valve to protect this porous offensive line. Christian McCaffrey returned last week and the effect he has on a defense was apparent. I expect Kyle Shanahan to be prepared for that and have a plan to put a high degree of stress on the Seahawks defense. The 49ers stink at special teams, and there’s a good chance that bites them in the playoffs, but I think they can find ways to mitigate that in regular season games like these.

Tier 3: The Quarterback Spectrum (Season Record: 13-21)

Lions -13.5 over Jaguars

Colts +3.5 over Jets

Bills -2.5 over Chiefs

Texans -7.5 over Cowboys

This tier contains the full spectrum of NFL quarterback play. On one end of the spectrum, we have another Pat Mahomes-Josh Allen duel and on the other we have the Colts’, Cowboys’ and Jaguars’ quarterback carousels. Jacksonville’s and Dallas’s may be due to injuries to the starter, but that doesn’t change the fact that we have seen multiple players on both teams show us how not to play quarterback at the NFL level.

The most interesting game in this tier and the one that you should prioritize watching regardless of if, how, or how much you bet it is the Chiefs vs. Bills mid-afternoon game. This is likely a playoff preview and a game that has given us plenty of classic iterations over the past few years. I know I have recently written about how much we should take advantage of betting on Mahomes as an underdog, and in the playoffs, I will always push that advice, but in a regular season game with Kansas City already comfortably at 9-0 I think the situation is different. Last week, I wrote that Kansas City would do just enough to win “no more, no less.” That’s exactly what they did. I can guarantee you they won’t do that for eight more regular season games and three playoff game. Put another way: Does this feel like the first undefeated team in 52 years to you? I didn’t think so either. Kansas City will drop a regular season game at some point this season, and this feels like the right game. Buffalo will be hungry after getting bounced by Mahomes in the playoffs last year…again, and I would argue that the Bills are playing better football overall right now. Josh Allen is having a splendid season and the Bills defense who seemed poised for a downtick at the beginning of the season actually defends both run and pass reasonably.

This Detroit line seems awfully high, especially on a short week and coming off a game in which Jared Goff through five interceptions. Still, Detroit has the best running game in the NFL and Jared Goff has mostly been an efficiency king this season. I expect more of that on Sunday, especially against a Jacksonville team that I can’t in good conscious bet. I know they had myriad opportunities to beat the Vikings last week, and some might try to compare Jared Goff to Sam Darnold. Don’t do that. Those two aren’t comparable and don’t try to get cute. Just bet the Lions and don’t bother watching this bloodshed.

Indianapolis is turning the reins back over to Anthony Richardson on Sunday, which is probably good for both the Colts’ present and future. Joe Flacco seems like his nearing the end of the road as a serviceable starting quarterback, and Indianapolis needs to find out sooner rather than later if Anthony Richardson is a franchise quarterback. This is a good weekend to find out against a Jets defense that is talented but has not been a good unit this year. I don’t really trust the Colts, but I’m not trusting the Jets as a favorite either. Jonathan Taylor is still a beast of a running back, and Indy’s defense is good enough to get some stops if Anthony Richardson can avoid turning the ball over and creating short field opportunities for Aaron Rodgers.

I’m not sure what to say about this week’s Monday Night Football Battle for Texas other than would anyone bet on the Cowboys at this point in the season? I almost made this a tier one bet but couldn’t stomach having watching my biggest bet of the week slip away while Houston ran out the clock with a seven-point lead, which is the only scenario I see Dallas actually covering this spread. Houston’s defense is good enough to clampdown Trey Lance or Cooper Rush, and Dallas couldn’t run on the Houston Cougars defense, much less the Texans. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud should get Nico Collins back this week, and the Mixon, Dell, Collins trio will be a formidable challenge for a Dallas defense that has also cratered this season. I expect Nico Collins to get in on the scoring action in his return to the field this week, and he’s my GPSATB of the week.

Tier 4: Two Bouncebacks and a Breakthrough (Season Record: 16-18)

Commanders +3.5 over Eagles

Vikings -5.5 over Titans

Chargers -1.5 over Bengals

This must be the most interesting Thursday Night Football game of the season, right? The upstart Commanders taking on the roller coaster Eagles right as Philly might be figuring their season out. That’s must-watch television. Philadelphia played well mostly on Sunday but there are still concerns there. Jalen Hurts still doesn’t throw the ball over the middle much and threw a bad interception in the end zone early on Sunday. Washington’s defense isn’t good, but it’s no worse than Dallas’s. On the other side of the ball, Jayden Daniels has been a revelation for Washington’s offense, and I think he can keep pace with Philadelphia. The one concern that I have betting the Commanders here, is there is at least one plausible scenario where Saquon Barkley just takes over this game and Washington’s run defense is incapable of stopping him for chewing up yardage and clock.

Maybe this is the time to get off the Minnesota train before it runs off the rails, but I just can’t bet on Will Levis. His mayonnaise commercials make me vomit in my mouth over and over again every Sunday. (I know that was only a football-adjacent comment, but it needed to be said.) I think the Vikings get back to running the ball this week and Darnold doesn’t have to do too much. I also think Levis will gift wrap some great scoring opportunities for the Vikes, but Mac Jones did do the same last week too. Regardless, I’m not betting on Tennessee. If you want to call this game a stay away, then I wouldn’t fault you either.

Cincinnati feels like they are going to be just a little bit short all year long, don’t they? I think this team is better than their record generally, and they have had to deal with limited availability from secondary star Tee Higgins. Then again, they’ve also lost to the Patriots as 7.5-point favorites and been blown out by the Eagles. Their biggest problem, as it pertains to this game, is that they can’t stop the run for anything. What do the Chargers do well? Run the damn ball. I think Los Angeles dominates the ground game and the time of possession here, and ultimately that’s why I think they win. I never thought I’d type this, but I truly believe Greg Roman has unlocked the best version of Justin Herbert.

Tier 5: Bad and Unpredictable Teams (Season Record: 19-15)

Rams -4.5 over Patriots

Browns +1.5 over Saints

Raiders +7.5 over Dolphins

I wouldn’t fault a soul for choosing not to bet on any of these games. I’m not sure I know what I’m talking about here. Generally speaking, I think the Rams have shown me a little more than the Patriots this season, and I still have a degree of confidence in Matt Stafford that I don’t have in anyone involved in New England’s organization. Drake Maye has breathed a shot of hope for the future into this team though and they could get frisky down the stretch.

Cleveland got embarrassed by the Chargers the last time we saw them play and New Orleans enjoyed the dead cat bounce last week against Atlanta. In hindsight, I am truly stunned that I shunned the dead cat bounce and bet Atlanta anyway last week. Sometimes I need you guys to remind me how dumb I can be. This week feels ripe for a random Jameis Winston gem in what some could consider a revenge game. Right? It’s the thing that makes the least sense which, in a contest between two teams, makes it the most likely scenario. That seems like some kind of football bastardization of Murphy’s Law, but it’s also true.

What is Miami going to be the rest of the season? Does Tua have this offense rolling again? How much do we trust him when we know he’s one hit away from possibly never playing again. Las Vegas is bad, but at least I know Maxx Crosby will be out there potentially making life difficult for Miami’s quick strike passing attack. The Raiders are awful, but I can’t trust Miami with a line this high. Not until they set a new baseline, which one week is not enough to do.

Last Week’s Record: 9-5

Season Record: 81-71

Cover Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/Matt Rourke