Daylight savings time is here fraught with driving home from work in the dark and seasonal depression. The saving (no pun intended) grace for this time of year is that with the cold and dark we turn to one thing above all to cheer ourselves up: comfort food. We are so many months away from #hotgirlsummer that no one should be afraid to embrace a hot dish of cheesy, buttery, meaty goodness to warm our souls through the blustery winter months. In honor of the best part of the season, this week’s tiers are my comfort food power rankings. Dig in!

Tier 1: Roasted Beef and Potatoes (Season Record: 11-7)

Bills -3.5 over Colts

Cardinals +1.5 over Jets

Nothing beats a beautiful dish of slow roasted beef and some form of potatoes for me. That is always where my mind goes first when I think of comfort food. The beautiful thing about it is that even though it seems straightforward, and it is, there are still so many variations. As a Southerner, I’m used to the classic pot roast with gravy and mashed potatoes. I’m also partial to the French iteration: Beef Bourguignon over pureed potatoes. When I really wanna get fancy, I turn to a braised short rib.

Buffalo failed to cover last week, but that actually had more to do with the Dolphins offense showing some signs of life in Tua’s return than anything the Bills did or didn’t do. Josh Allen was fantastic in the second half on Sunday, and he did it without Amari Cooper. The Colts, on the other hand, played an entire football game without advancing the ball into the redzone with Anthony Richardson sitting on the bench. He clearly is the future and, after last week, maybe he needs to be the present again. The Colts were inefficient with Richardson at the helm, but at least they were interesting and occasionally explosive.

It’s time to start taking Arizona seriously. They didn’t just beat the Bears on Sunday. They owned them. Kyler Murray and company moved the ball at will against a good Bears defense and the Cardinals defense put Caleb Williams in a blender. Now, I don’t think putting a rookie quarterback through his paces suddenly makes the Cardinals defense world beaters, but it was a promising sign. Now Arizona is a home underdog against the Jets? Why because they beat Houston without their top two receivers? Are they suddenly back? I’m skeptical.

Tier 2: Chili (Season Record: 19-8)

Vikings -4.5 over Jaguars

Falcons -3.5 over Saints

Lions -3.5 over Texans

Is their anything more comforting than a piping hot bowl of chili fully loaded with sour cream, cheddar cheese and about 20 dashes of hot sauce? I don’t think so either.

How good do we think Minnesota is? I ask that question with the full realization that you are reading this because I’m supposed to be giving you answers, but I prefer a little imaginary dialogue from time to time. Truthfully, I think Minnesota is a decent team when they can run the ball. Sam Darnold isn’t an elevator but he can be a manager and he is surrounded by safety nets, the best of which is Justin Jefferson who is my GPSATB for the week. Defensively, Minnesota is a good, not great unit that’s coordinated by the best defensive mind in the game. That recipe will take the Vikings far in the regular season, but it will be tantalizing to bet against Sam Darnold come playoff time. Also, I fully recognize Jacksonville has now covered two weeks in a row, but I’m still in full-on bet against mode.

New Orleans is awful. How did we get from week two New Orleans to here? Again, legitimately asking. The answer partially lies in they played two bad-to-horrible teams to start the season and came back down to earth against real NFL competition and then lost their starting quarterback for a few weeks. Even though Derek Carr returned last weekend, their offense still looks broken outside of Alvin Kamara, and now they don’t have their only downfield receiving threat, Chris Olave, for the foreseeable future after Derek Carr hung him out to dry and got him concussed on Sunday. (No Michael Thomas isn’t standing over my shoulder forcing me to type this. Why do you ask?) I’m still not sold on Atlanta, but it’s becoming increasingly clear they are the best team in a bad division.

Detroit is nearing straight bet mode for me at this point. If you thought the elements were going to slow them down last week, then you were wrong. The running game continues to roll and Jared Goff operates an efficient complementary passing attack. I worry about this defense holding up through multiple playoff games and a full-strength Houston offense would actually be a nightmare matchup for them, but we aren’t getting a full-strength Houston offense, unfortunately.

Tier 3: Soup (Season Record: 12-19)

Bears -6.5 over Patriots

Bucs +5.5 over 49ers

Rams -1.5 over Dolphins

I understand that “soup” is a category of foods and not a specific dish, but when I started thinking about all of the comforting soup dishes it became impossible to narrow the list down to one. So here are my favorite comfort soups in no particular order: gumbo over rice, tomato soup and grilled cheese, French onion soup au gratin, beef and vegetable and butternut squash.

The Bears looked bad last week to the point that I’m nervous laying this many points with Caleb Williams, but New England is worse. I also think I’ve hit my quota of betting on the Patriots this year. Drake Maye made some plays last week that offered glimmers of hope, but those are future glimmers not present.

Christian McCaffrey may get activated this week and spark San Francisco’s offense back to the heights we’ve come to expect and make this pick look foolish. That doesn’t seem like the most likely scenario. I think we are still a few weeks away from seeing McCaffrey and even if he does play, he clearly isn’t 100%. The other reason I would lean towards taking the points here is, as we saw Monday night, Tampa Bay has a good running attack and their ability to control the ball and time of possession give them the opportunity to keep pretty much any game close as long as Baker Mayfield protects the football.

Earlier in this column, I pitched the case that we start accepting Arizona as a good team, which was a camp I’d moved into earlier in the season. It’s also probably time I do the same with the Rams, a camp I did not belong to until this week. With Kupp and Nacua back, this team has weapons and is a two-dimensional threat. Also, this young defense that was thought to be an Achilles heel is starting to improve, especially up front with the emergence of Jared Verse as a game wrecker. Miami looked much better with Tua back last week too, but I do think Verse and company can make life difficult for Tua.

Tier 4: Spaghetti Bolognese (Season Record: 14-17)

Bengals +6.5 over Ravens

Giants -6.5 over Panthers

Broncos +8.5 over Chiefs

The Italians really know how to do comfort food. Meat in a hearty stew over a bed of carbs, and sometimes breaded and covered with cheese. These are all wonderful things. Some would argue that spaghetti and meatballs is the more “comforting” of the ways to serve spaghetti, but I’m partial to Bolognese. It requires less thought about how big of a piece of meatball to cut to add with pasta. Just twirl and eat.

Baltimore finally went full juggernaut mode last week against the hapless Broncos, but this team never seems to put two weeks in a row of juggernaut ball together. Cincinnati also has shown flashes of heating up offensively, but there’s a strong chance they will be without Tee Higgins yet again, which does make me nervous. I also rarely do this, but you should consider betting the over in this one.

If the NFL’s purpose for playing all of these international games is to expand American football to the rest of the world, then why in the hell would Roger Goodell send these two teams to Munich? Arguably, if this game were being played on American soil, the NFL could be tried for eighth amendment rights violations against all the poor spectators of this game. Don’t wake up to watch this game. Don’t bet on this game.

Kansas City never covers these spreads. Denver got exposed last week, but their defense is still decent. Pat Mahomes is also slightly hobbled with a hip injury, so expect the Chiefs to do just enough to get a win. No more. No less.

Tier 5: Macaroni and Cheese (Season Record: 16-15)

Steelers +2.5 over Commanders

Chargers -7.5 over Titans

Eagles -7 over Cowboys

If you read macaroni and cheese and the first think you thought about was a blue box then you need to take that weak ass shit somewhere else. Real comforting macaroni and cheese includes béchamel, mozzarella, sharp cheddar cheese, breadcrumbs, lots of butter and a broiler. That the stringy, rich, cheesy goodness you want.

Washington has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the season so far, but this is the kind of game Mike Tomlin lives for. Underdog against an upstart team with a dazzling rookie quarterback? Welcome to Mike Tomlin’s paradise, and a rookie quarterback’s hell. I fully expect an exotic defensive scheme and a non-offensive touchdown for the Steelers this week.

Los Angeles finally showed they are capable of blowing out a bad team on Sunday, and they ruined the Jameis Winston feel-good comeback story in the process. Even in the NFL, Jim Harbaugh is still fulfilling the role of Grade A fun killer. Tennessee is even worse than Cleveland and the Chargers should roll over them too.

How in the world did Philadelphia not cover that spread? They had a 22-point lead on a DOA Jaguars team and somehow let them claw back and cover the spread. Also, I’m sure you’ve already seen it, but if you haven’t go watch Saquon Barkley’s reverse hurdle because that was some of the most bonkers shit I’ve ever seen on a football field. The Eagles aren’t good, but the Cowboys are even worse. Dallas doesn’t have the worst roster or the worst future prospects, but they may be the saddest current fanbase in the NFL because of the perpetual failure to meet expectations. Maybe just bet the Saquon Barkley over on rushing yards and touchdowns.

Last Week’s Record: 6-9

Season Record: 72-66

Cover Photo Courtesy of Mark Konezny/Imagn Images