Transparency is something that I’ve always prioritized with this column, therefore I must confess to you that I don’t like horror movies. It wasn’t a thing we grew up with in my household and I just never developed any kind of affinity or attachment for them. Halloween has also never been one of my favorite holidays, other than the candy, but because it is right in the middle of football season it does always make an easy writing gimmick. The closest thing to the horror genre that I do enjoy is the writing of Edgar Allan Poe, which also has some loose ties to the NFL.

Tier 1: The Gold-Bug (Season Record: 9-6)

Bills -5.5 over Dolphins

Commanders -3.5 over Giants

Lions -3.5 over Packers

The Gold-Bug is my favorite Poe short story, and his most underrated. It is also much less “spooky” than most of his other works, which might make it a poorer choice for top billing given the subtitle but its my list so deal with it…sorry that was aggressive. Anyway, The Gold-Bug is one of Poe’s lesser-known works today, but it was one of his most popular during his lifetime and it is the inspiration for Robert Louis Stevenson’s “Treasure Island.”

Two of the three top tier games this week are replays of games we’ve already seen this year. Buffalo throttled Miami in week two. This was also, unfortunately, the game in which Tua was concussed again. That happened well after the outcome of this game was decided, and even with Tua returning last week this Miami team isn’t good. Buffalo has gotten better since week two and gets to play in Buffalo. This feels like a full go, even if it is in the Vegas Zone.

In the same week Buffalo beat Miami, Washington beat the New York Giants in a bizarre game where Graham Gano was injured early on a kickoff rendering the Giants incapable of attempting field goals or PATs the rest of the game. It is the only game in history where one team has scored three touchdowns and given up zero and lost. So yeah, that game was weird, and it’s impossible to read much from that result. However, the Commanders and Jayden Daniels have done nothing but improve since that game and the Giants don’t seem to be showing signs of improvement.

I kind of think it’s bad juju (not Smith-Schuster) to put all favorites in the top tier, but some weeks that’s just how it’s going to go. Jordan Love seems optimistic that he’ll suit up for the Packers on Sunday, even if he isn’t practicing. Even if he does, I expect him to be limited, and a limited Jordan Love isn’t going to be enough against a Lions team that is rolling right now. Detroit is arguably the best team in football right now and if this becomes a back-and-forth game then I like the consistency of the Lions run game over the high variance home run ball offense Green Bay employs. I also love the Jahmyr Gibbs 10+ rushing yards in each quarter weekly special at +300.

Tier 2: Fall of the House of Usher (Season Record: 18-6)

Broncos +9.5 over Ravens

Falcons -2.5 over Cowboys

Seahawks +1.5 over Rams

If you are starting or have already watched the Netflix series of the same name and haven’t read the Poe version, let me just tell you that the two are very much not the same. The show took some of the names from several Poe stories and weaved together some similar thematic elements and storylines added a lot of promiscuity and gave us…something not entirely Poe-esque but not completely un-Poe-esque either. The short story is better and creepier.

Admittedly, I did not have Cleveland upsetting Baltimore on my bingo card last week even if I did have the Browns to cover. Baltimore has seemed averse to covering big spreads even before last week though, see week two against the Raiders, and I’m not sure that they will have any interest in covering against Denver this week either. The Broncos are worse than their record indicates, hence this spread, but I just can’t lay this many points with a Ravens team that never seems to cover them.

Dallas stinks and they can’t stop anyone from running the ball. I’ve written some version of this every week for the last several weeks, other that Dallas’s bye two weeks ago, but that’s because it continues to be true. I’m still not buying Atlanta stock, but they have at least a serviceable defense and they have a multi-dimensional offense that will give a bad Dallas defense problems. Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown each of the last three weeks and he has a great matchup this week. He’s my GSATB (Gronk Spike Anytime Touchdown Bet) of the week.

I know Seattle just got blown out at home by Buffalo, but I swear that game said more about the Bills than the Seahawks! Seattle is still a decent team. Los Angeles is getting healthy at the right time offensively to make a playoff push, but I’m not positive that makes them better than the Seahawks. I’m certainly not sure it should make them a road favorite over the Seahawks, especially if D.K. Metcalf returns as anticipated.

Tier 3: The Tell-Tale Heart (Season Record: 12-16)

Texans +1.5 over Jets

Browns +1.5 over Chargers

Colts +5.5 over Vikings

A tale as old as time: a man does something horrible and suffers the consequence of all-consuming guilt. The narrator’s rapid and horrifying descent into madness is the most quintessential “Poe” storyline. The Tell-Tale Heart isn’t Edgar Allan Poe’s best work, but it is the one that best characterizes his voice and common themes.

Houston lost Stefon Diggs for the season on Sunday, and remains without Nico Collins, so I assume that’s why the Jets are the favorite here? I’m genuinely asking. I can’t think of any good reason why the New York Jets should be favored in a football game in 2024. The offense has been better since the firing of Robert Saleh and the acquiring of Davante Adams, but the defense, long thought to be the strength of the franchise, has been downright bad and getting worse. Even without Collins and Diggs, I think the Texans can have success on the ground creating good opportunities for C.J. Stroud to take shots down the field. This line makes no sense to me, but it gets the Thursday night demotion to tier three.

Sunday was proof positive of what I, and many others, have believed all along: Deshaun Watson was never the best quarterback option for this football team. Jameis Winston led a stunning upset over Baltimore last week. What can he do for an encore this week? I think he can lead them to another win over the Chargers. Los Angeles’s offense is one-dimensional and will struggle to move the ball consistently against a good Cleveland defense. Jameis doesn’t have to do much on Sunday. He just needs to protect the ball and engineer a couple of touchdown drives and the defense will do the rest. Admittedly, that hasn’t been Jameis’s M.O. for most of his career, but sometimes people change.

Indianapolis is benching Anthony Richardson after he pulled himself in crunch time against the Texans last week, which is a tough look for a young “franchise” quarterback. Richardson will probably be fine and will get his opportunity as a starter again, but Flacco is the best quarterback option for Indianapolis right now and Shane Steichen is smart enough to know that. Minnesota does have a few extra days of prep after playing on Thursday last week, but the Vegas Zone feels like a prime opportunity for a Flacco back door cover.

Tier 4: The Murders in the Rue Morgue (Season Record: 13-15)

Bears +1.5 over Cardinals

Eagles -7.5 over Jaguars

Bucs +8.5 over Chiefs

I’m torn on “The Murders in the Rue Morgue.” On the one hand, I was disappointed when the perpetrator was revealed to be a (Spoiler Alert Edit!), but on the other hand it did introduce us to C.Auguste Dupin, a.k.a. the inspiration for Sherlock Holmes. Overall, it’s a good, if unsatisfying, short story that introduced the concept of the modern detective story.

Full disclosure: I only picked Chicago over the Commanders last week because I thought they’d be without Jayden Daniels. It almost hit anyway. Almost. Arizona has been a frisky team this season and are one more last second win away from becoming the “Cardiac Cards” (trademark pending). But, Caleb Williams, the first half of last week aside, is starting to show that he can be a playmaker against mediocre-to-bad defenses, which Arizona qualifies as, and the Bears defense, Hail Marys notwithstanding, is good. Chicago should be favored in this game.

Is Philadelphia finally back? Eh, I’m still skeptical, but last week was encouraging. Do the Jaguars still employ Doug Pederson? For now. More because of the answer to the second question, I’m taking Philadelphia to cover here with a side of Tums.

Kansas City, not unlike Baltimore, reverted to their old win but don’t cover an absurdly high spread ways last week, and that might be here to stay if recent history is any indicator. The Bucs are reeling without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but they can actually run the ball and if Baker Mayfield protects the football, then this is a coverable spread.

Tier 5: The Black Cat (Season Record: 14-14)

Patriots +3.5 over Titans

Panthers +7.5 over Saints

Raiders +7.5 over Bengals

Not gonna lie, I’m not a huge cat guy. You know what I’m even less of a “guy” of: animal cruelty and domestic violence.

Off the record, do not bet or watch any of these three games. It’s not worth it. On the record, here’s my rationale for each of these three games. New England proved last week that it can at least resemble an NFL team. Tennessee has yet to do that this season except against a practice squad quarterback. Derek Carr may be back this week, but he will be limited, and the Saints are in free fall. The Panthers may be waiting for them at the bottom of that free fall, but seven-and-a-half points is a lot. Speaking of seven-and-a-half, Cincinnati shouldn’t be favored by that many over anybody.

Last Week’s Record: 8-8

Season Record: 66-57

Cover Photo Courtesy of Sam Navarro/Imagn Images