Like the rest of you, this is not the news I expected to break at the beginning of this week. I fully expected to wake up Monday morning and find that the Jaguars had made Doug Pederson the second coach fired this season, which is kind of like the Mr. Irrelevant of coach firings because no one is making money off you and if you’re getting fired this early then everyone saw it coming so it’s not “newsworthy”. Instead, we got no news on Monday, and a relatively dull Monday night game. But it turns out that both those teams were just trying to get through the week so they could set off the AFC East arms race! The Jets team Aaron Rodgers back up with ol’ pal Davante Adams and, not to be outdone, the Bills go out and get Amari Cooper to help Josh Allen out. Tiers this week are dedicated to the great arms races!

Tier 1: The Cold War Nuclear Arms Race (Season Record: 6-6)

Chiefs +1.5 over 49ers

Steelers +1.5 over Jets

Admittedly, I am too young to remember any of the cold war, but I know that it lasted forever and involved a great amassing of weapons of mass destruction. Weapons that, to date, have thankfully yet to be fired by either side. This arms race also perfectly illustrates why they are a great prisoner’s dilemma scenario, and as a game theory nerd I can’t help but point it out. Would the U.S and Russia both have been better off having fewer nuclear weapons and spending that money elsewhere? Absolutely. However, could one afford to not continue developing as the other one did to keep up? No. That, my friends, is a classic prisoner’s dilemma scenario.

In a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, Kansas City travels, fresh off a bye, to a maybe heating up 49ers team. They still haven’t enjoyed the benefit of Christian McCaffrey’s varied skillset this year, but the offense is stepping up its game with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle back healthy. The Chiefs, meanwhile, coasted into their bye week and have seemed content to conserve energy through the regular season to prepare to defend their Super Bowl crown come playoff time. I’m still going to bet on Mahomes as an underdog though, even if it is a regular season game. Something tells me he may pull out a few extra tricks for this one.

Pittsburgh looked mediocre against Indianapolis two weeks ago, but other than that they have been a decent team all year. Justin Fields is flawed but talented and has figured out a way to mitigate making backbreaking mistakes under the tutelage of Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith. The defense is one of the best in the league. So, why are they a home dog against the Jets? Is this a Davante Adams bump already? I know he’s played with Rodgers before and he’s played in the Rodgers-Hackett offense before, but do we really expect him to make a major impact on the game five days after being traded and finding a new home? (Hopefully he can still find a home with a Taco Bell inside.)

Tier 2: The Dreadnought Arms Race (Season Record: 12-5)

Colts -3 over Dolphins

Lions +1.5 over Vikings

Ravens -3.5 over Bucs

Before the cold war, there was another 20^th century arms race involving Great Britain and Germany. Instead of nuclear weapons, this was a nautical race. Alfred von Tirpitz, an admiral in the Imperial German Army, had a bright idea that if he could make the German Navy formidable enough then he could force Great Britain and the Royal Navy to stand down and make diplomatic concessions to the Germans. Unfortunately for him, Great Britain was building this badass battleship called the HMS Dreadnought which sparked Germany to rapidly increase their naval ship production. Britain followed suit and then we had an all-out arms race. Germany eventually blinked in 1912, and Britain won the race. Little did we know though, Germany’s “blink” was actually a pivot to secretly building submarines which would cause headaches a few years later.

Jonathan Taylor will probably miss yet another week, but I’m not sure it matters against a Dolphins team that is in shambles. Tyler Huntley did get a bye week to further get comfortable with this team and playbook, but I’m not sure that matters against a decent Colts defense.

The Lions scored a Pyrrhic victory against the Cowboys on Sunday. Sure, they laid waste to the ‘Boys in Jerry World, but they lost Aiden Hutchinson to a nasty leg fracture. If you get queasy, don’t YouTube it. They are playing like one of the best teams in the NFL right now, and their opponent this Sunday can boast the same, but they showed some cracks late in London against the Jets. Sam Darnold is having a career year, but the underlying metrics suggest that he could have a regression back to his mean and this seems like a prime week to do it against a tough Detroit pass rush, even without Hutchinson.

I swear every time I zag on Baltimore they zig and vice versa. We just can’t seem to sync up. This week I think I’ve got it nailed though. Tampa Bay is ok but not great, and I don’t think the defense can slow down the two-dimensional nature of the Ravens attack. They gave up a career game to Kirk Cousins in prime time two weeks ago after all. This game also has a weekly special that I like: Derrick Henry 35+ rushing yards in each half at +185.

Tier 3: Big Ten vs. SEC (Season Record: 9-13)

Bills -8.5 over Titans

Packers -2.5 over Texans

Cardinals +2.5 over Chargers

Truthfully, if you want a great arms race example you need look no further than our dearest sport! The current conference expansion battle between the SEC and the Big Ten is classic arms race level hubris. You add Texas, fine we’ll grab USC and Oregon!

I swore off big lines last week, and maybe I should continue to do so, but let’s face it: the Titans suck. They are going to continue to suck. Josh Allen has already demonstrated what he does to teams that suck (see MNF Week 3), and now he’ll get to do it with a legitimate WR1.

This Green Bay and Houston game is the most interesting game of the week for me. While everyone will be excited to watch the Super Bowl rematch, respectfully we already know what both of those teams are. Green Bay and Houston both feel rich with potential, but more enigmatic. Both teams came into this season with high expectations. Both have been pretty good. Both feel like they have left something on the table so far. Houston has beat several teams unconvincingly and has a major penalty problem. They also lost Nico Collins to injury. Green Bay overcame a Jordan Love injury but then lost a headscratcher, in some respects, to the division-rival Vikings in his return. My prediction is that we will look back at this game as the game that springboarded one of these teams to a strong finish and deep postseason run. My money’s on the home team.

The Chargers beat up on the Broncos early last week in a loss that felt inevitable for Bo Nix to suffer at some point. However, Los Angeles tried to let Denver back in it late. We’ve already seen what Arizona can do if you let them hang around once this season. I think Arizona may struggle with the Chargers’ run game, but they should be able to load the box. I also think Los Angeles may struggle with Kyler Murray’s dual threat ability. Marvin Harrison Jr. will likely not be available after suffering a concussion last week, which is a setback, but I’ll take Kyler as a home dog on the ESPN+ Monday Night game.

Tier 4: Gotham Police Dept vs. The Mob (Season Record: 11-10)

Broncos -2.5 over Saints

Giants +3 over Eagles

Panthers +8.5 over Commanders

My favorite description of an arms race comes at the tail end of the first film of Christopher Nolan’s Batman trilogy. Jim Gordon is talking to Batman after their successful derailment (no pun intended) of Ras al’ Ghul’s master plan to destroy Gotham. Batman declares to Gordon that they can bring Gotham back, to which Jim Gordon masterfully lays out the arms race that’s about to happen: “What about escalation? […] We start carrying semi-automatics, they buy automatics. We start wearing Kevlar, they buy armor-piercing rounds. […] And you’re wearing a mask. Jumping off rooftops. Now, take this guy. Armed robbery, double homicide, has a taste for the theatrical, like you. Leaves a calling card.” For those who forgot, this is when he flashes the “Joker” card to Batman that sets the stage for “The Dark Knight.”

Sean Payton seems like the kind of guy who is just enough troll to stroll into his old stomping grounds and lay waste to his old team just before ripping off a long losing streak. New Orleans seems like a hapless team without Derek Carr, although I don’t think it was Carr’s absence that caused the Saints to give up 55 points to the Bucs last week. All arrows are pointing down for New Orleans at this point.

The Giants, fresh off a stunning win over the Seahawks, could only muster a single touchdown against a mediocre Bengals defense on Sunday night. The only caveat to that is they didn’t have stud rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers for that game, and it looks like he’ll be back against the Eagles. I also still think this Eagles team is bad enough that I’m not betting them as a road favorite.

I keep coming back to the Carolina well and keep getting let down. Some people never learn. Yet again, I like the matchup relative to the spread for Carolina this week. Jayden Daniels is having a fine rookie season, but unfortunately, he doesn’t play defense for the Commanders. Washington’s defense is bad enough that I expect the Panthers to have success on the ground, shorten the game and find a way to keep this to a single-digit margin of victory. I also like Chuba Hubbard (currently -110) as my Gronk Spike Anytime Touchdown Profit Boost on Fanduel this week.

Tier 5: The Wheelbarrow Race (Season Record: 9-11)

Patriots +5.5 over Jaguars

Seahawks +3 over Falcons

Bengals -5.5 Browns

Raiders +6.5 over Rams

This field day classic isn’t so much an arms race as it is an arms race. I’ll see myself out now thanks.

These picks don’t necessarily require a whole lot of rationale, especially considering they are my weakest recommendations. I refuse to bet the Jaguars until Doug Pederson gets fired. I’m a little hesitant about backing a Seattle team playing in the Eastern time zone, but they’ve had a few extra days of rest, and I don’t think the Falcons have the pass rush to exploit Seattle’s weak offensive line. Cleveland is truly horrific and just traded away their best offensive player. Nick Chubb is close to a return, but we have no idea what he’ll look like. Los Angeles is coming off a bye but still has all of the same injury concerns they had before. Las Vegas is awful, but I don’t trust this banged up Rams team laying so many points.

Last Week’s Record: 8-6

Season Record: 47-45

Cover Photo Courtesy of Stephen R. Sylvanie/Imagn Images