Years of “Kirk Cousins in Primetime” jokes finally came back to bite me last week as Kirk Chainz through for a cool 509 yards and 4 touchdowns to hand me my fifth consecutive Thursday night loss. Furthermore, I also missed Sunday and Monday night to spoil an 8-3 week otherwise, so maybe I’m the primetime failure and Kirk Cousins is just awesome.

Anyway, despite having a decent last three weeks (primetime failures aside), this week looks horrendous from a gambling perspective. This is a great weekend to put no money down and plan your Sunday pumpkin patch trip with your loved ones, throw on some flannel and maybe take a haunted hayride. But if you’re as degenerate as I am, here are some week six picks anyway.

Tier 1: Yellow Light a.k.a. Proceed With Caution…or Floor it Through the Intersection (Season Record: 5-6)

Colts +2.5 over Titans

There is only one game I kind of like this week but let me be clear: this would be a tier three game in an ordinary week. I still don’t love this game, but someone had to take the top spot. It just doesn’t make much sense to me why this Titans team would be favored over anyone with a semi-competent quarterback, of which the Colts have two. I know Michael Pittman is out, but it looks like Jonathan Taylor will likely be back making this a two-dimensional offense again regardless of if Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco plays quarterback this week. Will Levis is still a walking, and sometimes rumbling and bumbling and stumbling, turnover machine. The Titans don’t run the ball particularly well. Tennessee has an average defense but that still shouldn’t be enough to make them a favorite here. Take advantage now because you may not be getting points on many Titans games the rest of the year.

Tier 2: Dikembe Mutombo’s Paint (R.I.P.) (Season Record: 11-4)

Commanders +6.5 over Ravens

Lions -3 over Cowboys

We lost two sports legends last week and there was no organic way for me to incorporate either of them into the column, but fortunately this week there is. Dikembe Mutombo spent his entire career denying access to the rim and swatting the shots of both suspecting and unsuspecting, guard and center, large and…less large. His finger wag celebration has become the de facto blocked shot celebration throughout the world, even for a generation who never saw him play. This makes it even more ironic that he spent his off the court time as a global ambassador for basketball literally opening access for thousands of children around the world, especially in Africa. R.I.P. Dikembe and in your honor, I wag my finger of caution at all this week’s picks.

When is it time to accept that Washington might be decent? I know the defense is still a liability and a good defense could still give Jayden Daniels fits with some complex looks, but the Commanders are rolling on offense right now and continue to exceed Vegas expectations. Meanwhile, we are all hailing the return of the Ravens after three consecutive victories, but truthfully the great win of the bunch was over a Bills team that, if last week is any indication, was overachieving to that point in the season. Baltimore nearly blew a big lead against the Cowboys in week three and needed a series of fortunate events to beat the Bengals in overtime. Time may prove that these were also good wins, but until then this line is three points too high.

It should be a sign of the week that a three-point road favorite is one of my three best bets for the week…again just stay away. But Detroit is a better football team whose biggest strength is directly opposed to Dallas’s biggest weakness. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are a two-headed monster of a rushing attack. Dallas’s run defense can’t stop a nosebleed. I’m not sure what David Montgomery’s and Jahmyr Gibbs’ rushing over/unders are but bet the over. Also, I love David Montgomery as my Fanduel Gronk Spike Anytime TD Profit Boost (this is something I’ll try to start giving each week as this seems like it will be a regular Fanduel occurrence). His anytime TD odds aren’t up yet, but I’d imagine his profit boosted odds will be close to even or better. In another prop suggestion, I also kind of like the Jared Goff or Dak Prescott to throw for 350+ yards odds at +420, mostly because Dallas can’t run the ball and Dak could attempt 50 passes against this man heavy defense.

Tier 3: The Baseball Hall of Fame Responding to Pete Rose’s Posthumous Application (R.I.P. again) (Season record: 7-12)

Seahawks +3.5 over 49ers

Bears -1.5 over Jaguars

Steelers -3 over Raiders

Look, I hate as much as anyone that this is the context in which we talk about Pete Rose’s life and legacy, but truthfully the most positive thing we can say about Rose as a man or player is that his candidacy at least merits consideration. He still has the all-time hits record in baseball and his baseball crimes are completely unacceptable, even by today’s more gambling friendly standards. His off-the-field crimes are even worse. The truth is Charlie Hustle is a legend of the game and probably should be in the hall of fame, but that doesn’t mean Pete Rose warrants our praise or fond remembrances.

Let’s blow another Thursday night shall we! Seattle suffered the most head-scratching loss of last weekend getting outclassed in all three phases by the New York Giants, but San Francisco blew yet another winnable game. The thing that worries me most about betting on Seattle here is their offensive line may simply not hold up against the 49ers pass rush, in which case they will struggle to move the ball all afternoon and we will probably see an incredibly frustrated Geno Smith. On the other hand, Kenneth Walker has looked like a legitimate bellcow back, when healthy, all year and that balance on offense could allow the Seahawks to attack in myriad ways and keep San Fran’s pass rush off-balance. It would also help if D.K. Metcalf could refrain from putting the ball on the ground for a third consecutive game.

The Bears are better than the Jaguars and this line seems temptingly low, but don’t forget this is in London where the Jaguars seem to play their best football! We also can’t forget the international discount consideration (all internationally played NFL games automatically get downgraded at least one tier). I think we all keep waiting for Trevor Lawrence to put it all together but the evidence is becoming increasingly clear, even in light of last week’s statistical explosion against an injury-riddled Colts defense, that’s not going to happen under Doug Pederson’s tutelage.

Las Vegas has announced they are changing quarterbacks and going with Aidan O’Connell at quarterback this week, which could be for one of three reasons really. One: O’Connell looks better to the Raiders staff. This is hard to believe and not supported by the evidence that O’Connell has a worse completion percentage, yards/attempt, TD:Int ratio, interception percentage and QB rating, albeit on a significantly smaller sample size. Two: the locker room prefers Aidan O’Connell. If this were true, it’s hard to imagine he wouldn’t have been the opening day starter, and I don’t see Davante Adams suddenly rescinding his trade request to catch slant routes from O’Connell either. Three: Las Vegas knows they are going to get their teeth kicked in by this Pittsburgh defense and they are offering up O’Connell as the sacrificial lamb to bring Gardner Minshew back for more winnable games. In the words of Cousin Eddy: Bingo!

Tier 4: Danger! Keep Out! (Season Record: 9-9)

Cardinals +5.5 over Packers

Chargers -2.5 over Broncos

Bengals -3.5 over Giants

I really wanted this to be the “Beware of Dog” sign tier, but then I was struck by the paucity of “dogs” in the NFL. Cleveland has the “Dawg Pound” which is an indirect association, but what else we got? Nothing! We need more dog-themed NFL names!

The Packers and Broncos have both been good to me so far this year, so it pains me to go against them, but this still feels like the right play (if you decide to play at all which, again is a perfectly reasonable decision!). Arizona seems like this year’s backdoor team, and last week they even turned it into a backdoor win! Meanwhile, the Chargers are coming off a bye and have the defensive gameplanning to really make life difficult for Bo Nix. I also expect the Chargers run heavy offense to have some success against this Denver front that is decent but unspectacular.

Dare I say that Cincinnati finally figured things out last week albeit in a losing effort? For a good portion of Sunday, Joe Burrow and company looked like the unit we expected them to be coming into the season. Ja’Marr Chase looked like the gamebreaker he is, and Tee Higgins looked much better than your typical WR2. Chase Brown ran the ball effectively too! Joe Burrow made a costly mistake late. Evan McPherson missed a potential game winner. The defense still has a lot of work to do, but the pieces finally look like they are falling into place for Cincinnati. It may be too little too late for their playoff hopes, but then again it may not. They can keep that momentum going with a Sunday Night Football win against an inferior Giants team this week.

Tier 5: Abandon Hope All Ye Who Wager Here (Season Record: 7-8)

Bucs -3.5 over Saints

Browns +9.5 over Eagles

Patriots +7 over Texans

Panthers +6.5 over Falcons

Jets +2.5 over Bills

The Bucs and Saints both broke my heart (actually just my wallet) in primetime last week, but the big difference is Tampa Bay at least escaped with a healthy starting quarterback. I watched Spencer Rattler play a ton in college, both at South Carolina and Oklahoma, and he’s a talented but turnover-prone player. (Insert shameless plug for my college football podcast here). I don’t expect that to magically change against NFL defenses. Look for Tampa Bay to capitalize on a Rattler giveaway or two.

Until further notice, I’m straight taking points in all spreads of seven or more. My quick research tells me that favorites of seven or more points are 1-8 against the spread (spread considered at time of my column, so Wednesday of game week) and are pretty poor straight up too. The only cover was San Francisco’s pasting of New England two weeks ago. So no, I am not suddenly “in” on the Browns or Texans, but the recent trends tell me to take the points if anything.

Why do I still give Kirk Cousins no respect you ask? Because we keep treating this Falcons team like a real playoff team and not a mediocre NFL team propped up by a weak schedule and division. I’m sorry it’s just true. Andy Dalton may not be the Carolina savior he looked like when he blew out Las Vegas after taking over in week three, but he’s good enough to keep things close against this team.

There aren’t a whole lot of reasons to bet the Jets on Monday night, except that I’m leaning into the “dead cat bounce” theory. There have been several times over the years where a team fires its coach midseason and the following week the team suddenly looks much better! Kind of how a dead cat will bounce… Robert Saleh was shown the door yesterday and with Aaron Rodgers assuming de facto coaching responsibilities for the week, this seems like a prime candidate for the theory. Buffalo also always struggles against the Jets, even when they don’t have dubious gambling theories working against them. Remember what happened after Rodgers tore his Achilles last year?

Last Week’s Record: 8-6

Season Record: 39-39

Cover Photo Courtesy of Amazon