What was that? Did I choose this tagline because I couldn’t think of anything actually clever to do with the tiers this week? Umm…maybe. Did I choose this as a false display of machismo to cover up my less than stellar picks record? I mean…no, if I really wanted to obscure my record, I just wouldn’t post it every week. Besides, other than a disastrous week two we’ve been .500 or better in every other week. Also, the Q and A session was two weeks ago didn’t you get the memo? Why are you badgering me? As Bill would say, on to week 5 picks.

Tier 1: High-Security Vault (Season Record: 3-6)

Ravens -2.5 over Bengals

Packers -3 over Rams

The Ravens-Bengals line objectively makes so little sense to me that I have diligently scoured the internet for heretofore undisclosed injuries. Baltimore may only be 2-2 and sure one of those losses was to the Raiders, but that seems like such an obvious aberration at this point. Over the last two weeks, Baltimore seems to have figured out how to incorporate Derrick Henry into the offense in a way that maximizes both his and Lamar Jackson’s production. Cincinnati also can’t stop a nosebleed right now, and while the offense is coming around, I don’t think they are good enough to make things a track meet against the Ravens.

Everyone suddenly seems off Green Bay after they lost, as favorites, to the juggernaut Minnesota Vikings last week. Did I not tell you that Brian Flores knew what he was doing? There were plenty of reasons for Jordan Love to look rusty in his return from a sprained MCL last week, Flores’ defensive scheme among them, but he led a valiant comeback attempt and last week is no reason to write off Green Bay as a legitimate NFC North contender. I fully realize they are a road favorite against the Rams, but they are laying half-a-point more than the Bears did last weekend. Again, yes that was a Bears home game, and this is a Packers road game and line adjustments and blah blah blah. I don’t care. The Bears and the Packers aren’t remotely comparable teams. Aaron Rodgers may be gone, but Green Bay still owns the Bears.

Tier 2: A Magical Lock That Can’t Be Opened With Alohamora (Season Record: 8-4)

Vikings -2.5 over Jets

Cardinals +7.5 over 49ers

Commanders -3 over Browns

Speaking of Brian Flores defense, even if this is a London game (which is why I downgraded it to Tier 2) why do we not expect him to put this very mid, as the kids say, Jets offense in a blender? Are we still buying the Aaron Rodgers mystique so much that we think he will magically figure things out against this defense? I don’t think so. Meanwhile, New York has a good defense, but you can run the ball on them and I expect we’ll see a heavy dose of Aaron Jones early Sunday morning to create easy throws for Sam Darnold.

San Francisco bounced back from a collapse against the Rams two weeks ago with a thumping of the overmatched Patriots last week. That was a schedule blessing for a team that was still depleted at the offensive skill positions. It looks like both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle will return to the lineup this week, which is why I would imagine this line is so high. That, and the fact that Arizona just lost by four points to the Commanders at home. What did you say? They lost by four touchdowns? Yikes! It may be hard to jump right back on the Cardinals after a week like that, but I believe that Arizona is not as bad as they looked last week. They were a bizarre called-back pick six away from beating or nearly beating the Lions the week before. The offense has been quite as spectacular as we thought with MHJ coming into the fold, but the best football is still ahead for this offense and team. No time for that to prove true like a division game against a team that still won’t have its best player.

Speaking of the Commanders, why are they only laying three against the Browns? Cleveland may still have a decent defense, but Jayden Daniels has already demonstrated an ability to diagnose and make throws at the NFL level. Plus, Cleveland’s offense is horrible and incapable of punishing Washington’s poor defense. As long as Washington protects the ball and doesn’t let Cleveland stay in the game with defensive and special teams scores, then I think 20 points will be enough to win this game and cover.

Tier 3: The Deadbolt (Season Record: 6-9)

Bucs +1.5 over Falcons

Texans +1.5 over Bills

Steelers -1.5 over Cowboys

Saints +5.5 over Chiefs

Why do we put door locks on doors with deadbolts? The only useful thing about a door lock is the ability to “credit card” your way back in the house when you lock yourself out.

Fun fact: I am 0-4 on Thursday night this year, so if there’s any pick to fade then it’s probably this one, or all of them. Atlanta beat the Saints last week (but didn’t cover!) despite not scoring a single offensive point. They benefited from a muffed punt and had a pick six off a batted ball and truly baffling Derek Carr decision. All that to say, Atlanta is not a good football team and Tampa Bay has at least shown some stretches of good football so far this season. Baker Mayfield still struggles against pressure, but I have doubts about the Falcons secondary consistently holding up against Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Houston is declaring itself as the Vegas delight team of the season. They are 0-4 against the spread for the year, but they’ve also been favored in every game and are still a quality football team and we can’t pass up an opportunity to bet them as a home dog. Buffalo had been rolling until they met a buzzsaw on Sunday night. Houston isn’t built like Baltimore to attack Buffalo in the same way necessarily, but Joe Mixon seems likely to return which should help balance the Texans offensive attack and Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs should be able to make some plays against this Bills secondary. That’s especially so with Buffalo losing Von Miller to a suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.

Pittsburgh really let me down last week, but if you honestly had Joe Flacco shredding the best defense in the NFL on your bingo card last week then you must have had Biff Tannen’s Sports Almanac. Dallas, meanwhile, still has significant problems on the defensive side of the ball and I expect the Steelers to utilize Justin Fields’ dual threat attack to move the ball on the ground against this Cowboys defense. Fields’ athleticism should help neutralize the only thing to fear on this Dallas defense: Micah Parsons (if he even plays). Offensively, Dallas has no running game, and I fully expect Mike Tomlin to do what he does gameplanning against a one-dimensional offense.

Kansas City will probably continue to do what it does on Monday night: win games in the least exciting fashion imaginable. The Chiefs continue to get these Vegas zone lines against decent teams, and they have shown little interest in trying to cover any of them to the point that the two safest bets in football right now seem like the Kansas City moneyline and betting against them to cover. I see no reason that trend won’t continue this week. Alvin Kamara continues his fountain of youth season, and I think he keeps them in this game, as long as Derek Carr can refrain from throwing the ball to the other team.

Tier 4: The Padlock (Season Record: 8-7)

Colts +2.5 over Jaguars

Broncos -2.5 over Raiders

Seahawks -6.5 over Giants

Indianapolis had a breakout offensive performance last week against what I thought was the best defense in football. It’s a bummer that Anthony Richardson left yet another game early due to injury, but he did some really nice things before that. Joe Flacco stepped in and continued to orchestrate a balanced attack that consistently moved the ball against Pittsburgh. Even more importantly, he protected the football. Now they take on a Jacksonville team that at this point feels like a straight bet against until Doug Pederson inevitably gets fired.

Let me be clear, Denver is a bad football team. They also have had an easy schedule, for the most part, to this point so they look better than they are. The problem is Las Vegas might be a putrid football team, and especially so without Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby on the field. Bo Nix is incapable of beating NFL defenses, but without Maxx Crosby the Raiders are not an NFL defense.

It’s a bummer that Seattle’s offensive performance on Monday night was overshadowed by an even better Lions performance, but Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker III were remarkable on Monday night. Seattle’s defense seems to be clicking and while their defensive gameplan didn’t pan out against a sterling Jared Goff performance, they get a nice rebound opportunity against Daniel Jones this week. A Daniel Jones that may be without Malik Nabers at that.

Tier 5: A Magical Lock That Can Be Alohamored (Season Record: 6-7)

Panthers +3.5 over Bears

Dolphins +1.5 over Patriots

Let me poll the audience about one of my biggest Harry Potter nitpicks. If you, as an adult wizard, know that there are essentially two ways to magically lock a door: one that can be undone by the spell Alohamora and one that can’t. Why would you ever choose the former unless you won’t that lock to picked? I mean that spell is so easy that a first-year witch can master it in her first month even knowing that magic is a thing. I’m sorry but this just seems silly. Always choose the magical lock that can’t been undone with an easy spell.

Why are we laying so many points with Chicago? Do we really think they figured everything out last week? I know this is a home game against maybe still the worst team in football, but Andy Dalton has infused semi-competent quarterback play into this team and I would be a little surprised if he can’t at least take things down to the wire against a Bears team that still isn’t good.

Picking the Dolphins right now may feel like flushing money down the toilet, and admittedly maybe it is, but I can’t help but think with another week of practice in this offense Tyler Huntley will be better than he was last week. He has started in the playoffs before, and he still has Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill as electric pass catching options. New England and Jacoby Brissett can’t say the same. This may look incredibly stupid in about 72 hours, but that’s why it’s a tier five pick right?

Last Week’s Record: 9-7

Season Record: 31-33

Cover Photo Courtesy of Tommy Gilligan/Imagn Images