After a truly horrible performance in week two, it’s time to go back to some basics. This week we’re going to be thoughtful and ask some important and hard-hitting questions in an attempt to come up with some right answers, because as Billy Costigan put it, “Maybe it would have done you good to have some question from time to time, you know?” Our questions won’t be as…um…vulgar as his were, but nonetheless they may help us arrive at some important answers.

Tier 1: Introspection (Season Record: 1-4)

Chiefs -3.5 over Falcons

Cowboys +1.5 over Ravens

If you want to question anything, you always need to start with yourself. Everything flows from the inside out. So, let’s start with a basic one: Why have I turned into the picks equivalent of Kirk Cousins in primetime? Yes, I recognize this is fresh off the heels of a rare Kirk Cousins primetime win (that loss says more about his opponent), but I’d already teed up the question. Sometimes it may just be a bad string, Houston was a half-point away from covering on Sunday night and multiple times the Eagles were in position to cover a spread that was admittedly two points too high.  Looking at this week’s Sunday night game though, I think that, ironically, the Kirk Cousins Monday night win is giving us a two-point discount on the Chiefs this week. Kansas City is a better team and, even with the loss of Isiah Pacheco, the Chiefs should be able to control this game from start to finish. I would love it if this line would keep sliding to three or lower, but I won’t dare to dream.

Baltimore being favored in Dallas is a little bit surprising given what we have seen from the Ravens so far this season, but the Cowboys also just got pummeled at home by the Saints as a six-and-a-half-point favorite so maybe it isn’t that surprising. The question for this game is all about trust. Who do I trust more? Lamar Jackson behind a shaky offensive line trying to block Micah Parsons or freshly paid Dak Prescott and Ceedee Lamb trying to pick apart the Baltimore secondary? To be fair, I trust Baltimore’s front office, head coach and quarterback more than I trust Dallas’s, but watching Baltimore lose to Las Vegas last week against a defense that hasn’t had the same tenacity without Mike Macdonald, Geno Stone and Patrick Queen made me question their ability to hold up against a good offense. Conversely, even though Dallas’s defense got shredded by New Orleans last week, we saw what Micah Parsons and company can do against a bad offensive line in week one. Comparing Lamar Jackson to Deshaun Watson is an act of comparison malpractice, but if Lamar is running for his life most of the afternoon, then I see Dallas winning this game.

Tier 2: Existential Questions (Season Record: 4-3)

Patriots +6.5 over Jets

Steelers -1.5 over Chargers

Bills -4.5 over Jaguars

Was the Patriot Way a direct extension of Bill Belichick destined to leave with him or is it an ideal instilled to live on forever? Last year, I would have pronounced the Patriot Way dead, but after two weeks of watching the Patriots punch above their weight class, maybe it’s back to be carried on by Belichick’s successor. Jerrod Mayo was largely criticized in the offseason for how he handled the quarterback situation and the media, but there’s no question he has New England outplaying their talent level to start the season. Meanwhile, the Jets are enjoying competent quarterback play for the first time this millennium, but they still seem to be the same old Jets. Part of the Patriot Way is owning the Jets. Even if this iteration can’t beat Rodgers at home, they can cover this spread.

What happens when an immovable object meets another immovable object? The obvious answer is that neither force moves, which is the most fitting analogy for what the offenses will do in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Jim Harbaugh has the Chargers band of misfit skillplayers undefeated largely by virtue of running wild on two bad run defenses. The Steelers have the best defense in the NFL Justin Herbert is a talented quarterback, but fitting tight throws into small windows because your receivers have no separation over and over and over again is a difficult way to win a football game. Justin Fields probably won’t do much and he probably won’t have to.

Are the Buffalo Bills just good at football? This isn’t an existential question but it’s the one I’m left with after they destroyed the Dolphins on Thursday night football. Perhaps this is an overreaction to a blowout win over an overrated Miami team. That is probable, but with Joe Brady running the offense and Josh Allen making good decision this Bills offense is humming. The Jaguars might have a better defense than the Dolphins and do have a better defense than the Cardinals, but it’s not by much. Meanwhile, the Jaguars can’t seem to move the ball consistently or score in the red zone, that’s a terrible combination.

Tier 3: Hypotheticals (Season Record: 1-6)

Vikings +2.5 over Texans

Saints -2.5 over Eagles

Packers +2.5 over Titans

Cardinals +3 over Lions

What if Sam Darnold was just good at football? It’s hard to imagine typing that sentence after watching him across his NFL career, especially as someone who was convinced he was the best quarterback in his draft class. (Yes the same draft class that produced Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. We all have misses). Truthfully, it’s more likely that he’s fallen into a great situation with a good coach and excellent receivers, but hey that can make a barely competent quarterback look decent as we saw last week. Maybe Houston will finally decide to cover a spread this week, but I like Minnesota again as a home underdog.

What if the Saints just beat the shit out of everybody for the rest of eternity? Honestly, hard to rule it out at this point. The Panthers one was explainable, Carolina’s hopeless. Going to Dallas and smearing their snooty noses all over their own field? That was both sweet and shocking. Derek Carr has the highest passer rating in the NFL through the first two weeks of the season. Alvin Kamara looks rejuvenated. New Orleans will likely fall back to Earth at some point, but after Monday night’s collapse Philadelphia might just be in free fall.

What if Matt LaFleur is the best coach in the NFL? After what he got out of a Malik Willis-led offense last Sunday, this seems the most likely hypothetical here to be true. Malik Willis had shown nothing to this point to suggest he could competently quarterback an NFL team for a whole game, and he didn’t do a ton to dispel that last Sunday. However, he didn’t have to. Matt LaFleur crafted a genius game plan and was able to put Malik in a situation to be efficient and risk averse. The Titans defense isn’t bad but their offense is and I’m taking Matt LaFleur over any singular thing Tennessee brings to the table.

What if the Lions insistence on playing man-to-man defense isn’t the right approach against Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr.? The Cardinals absolutely shredded the Rams defense last week and if Detroit is committed to playing a high percentage of man-to-man against Arizona then it could happen to them too. Detroit’s man-to-man heavy coverage has left plenty to be desired through two weeks of play, despite adding talented pieces to it in the offseason. If they are unwilling to adapt the gameplan this week, MHJ could have another monster game. The caveat is that Detroit’s offense will likely also cook with ease, and they could just play keep away for four quarters, but if Arizona keeps pace the game will at least be tight.

Tier 4: The Interrogation Room (Season Record: 5-2)

Bucs -6.5 over Broncos

Bears +1.5 over Colts

Seahawks -4.5 over Dolphins

Rams +7.5 over 49ers

Can you be a decent NFL quarterback Bo Nix? Well, can ya punk? (Thanks for indulging my Dirty Harry. It won’t happen again…or maybe it will). I have been unabashedly skeptical of Bo Nix ever living up to his top-12 pick status and Sean Payton’s fawning. So far, he hasn’t disappointed. He easily looked like the worst rookie quarterback of week one and was clamped down by an admittedly stellar Steelers defense in week two. The problem this week is he has to travel east for the first time as an NFL quarterback against a Bucs team that looks improved against expectations to start the year. This line is three points higher than I’d prefer, but I’m not betting on Bo Nix again until he earns it.

Do you have a rookie breakout performance in you Caleb Williams? Answer me! (Went for the Dark Knight interrogator there. Sorry I’ll stop. I know it’s corny). I really think he does. I argued with my co-podcaster Brian Hall over text on Monday night about Williams’ Sunday night performance, which admitted left a lot to be desired. But, he also flashed the arm strength and ability to string together some passes that make a legitimate NFL quarterback. He did the same against Tennessee in week one. The pieces are there and this Bears team is going to be better. This would be a great week for Williams to get on track against a Colts defense that a) was never that good and b) is already banged up.

What are you without Tua Miami? Honestly, this is the question I like asking the least. What happened to Tua on Thursday night was horrifying and objectively the worst thing about following this sport. I hope he is ok and hope he has some people in his life seriously prepared to have conversations with him about his long-term well-being. As for the game, I’ve seen a Skylar Thompson-led offense before and I don’t want to have to rely on that again.

Can the Rams force their heart and nerve and sinew to serve their turn long after they are gone? Sean McVay and Matt Stafford are holding the Rams together with duct tape and pluck at this point, but I can’t help but thinking that those two are enough to keep them generally competitive. This is also a high spread for a San Francisco team that has its own injury problems with Christian McCaffrey and now Deebo Samuel out. San Francisco probably wins but give me the seven-and-a-half.

Tier 5: WTF (Season Record: 3-3)

Browns -6.5 over Giants

Raiders -5.5 over Panthers

Commanders +7.5 over Bengals

Do I really have to pick between Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones? For purposes of this column, yes. In real life, neither I nor you have to bet this game. Don’t do it. Also, don’t watch this game. Pressed to an answer though, I’ll take Cleveland’s defense over anything New York has to offer.

What am I supposed to make of Andy Dalton taking over Carolina’s offense? Honestly, I’m not making a whole lot of it. I refuse to get caught with Carolina money again for the foreseeable future.

Cincinnati looked a lot better this week but they are making a bad habit of playing to their level of competition. I wouldn’t be surprise if we see more of the same this weekend. Cincinnati can’t be trusted with a line this high against any non-Panthers, non-Giants team. While I don’t love Fanduel’s Weekly Specials this week, the one that tempts me most is Ja’Marr Chase and Terry McLaurin to have 30+ receiving yards in each half at +1300. This should be a pass happy game.

Last Week’s Record: 5-11

Season Record: 14-18

Cover Photo Courtesy of Charlie Riedel/AP