A philosopher once said, “R-E-L-A-X. Relax.” Of course, that same philosopher would later out himself as a conspiracy theorist, willfully mislead fans and his employer about his COVID-19 vaccination status, go on an ayahuasca “darkness retreat” to decide his next job, rotate hair cuts from “Frat Boy” to “Sons of Anarchy” to “Peaky Blinders” to “Suburban Dad”, and suggest that he was capable of healing from an Achilles’ tendon tear faster than anyone in professional sports history in the order of months. What can I say? Philosophers are weird. We would be amiss not to heed his sentiment heading into week two of the NFL season though. Some of last week’s results supported what we already know, others confirmed what we feared and still others meant absolutely nothing at all. Let’s sort through it all.

Tier 1: It’s a Love Story (Season Record: 1-1)

Chiefs -5.5 over Bengals

Rams +1.5 over Cardinals

Seahawks -3.5 over Patriots

Just so we’re all clear, I’m fully prepared for the Chiefs to fall back to Earth and the Bengals to look like the Super Bowl team from two years ago this Sunday and this pick to look foolish, but it’s too tempting not to bet Mahomes in a long week of preparation (remember they played last Thursday) after kicking off his three-peat bid by looking as good as ever. Meanwhile, Cincinnati continued their trend of poor September play. Joe Burrow just likes to wake up when September ends, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that continue, especially if Tee Higgins remains out.

Los Angeles may have lost on Sunday night football, but yet again, they gave Detroit all it wanted and then some. The young defense gave up plenty of plays against a stellar Lions offense, but they made them earn every point. Arizona’s defense is less polished and more mistake prone. The same play will likely elicit more turnovers and empty drives. Even if it’s a road game, I love the Rams as underdogs here.

My only caution with taking Seattle is the “West Coast Team Playing in the Eastern Time Zone” principle. That concerns me slightly, but the Seahawks overcame early adversity against Denver last weekend (two first half safeties!) and came back to win fairly comfortably. New England won their Super Bowl last weekend and now they can start preparing for the second pick in the 2025 draft.

Tier 2: A Nightmare Dressed Like a Daydream (Season Record: 2-1)

Cowboys -6.5 over Saints

Jets +3.5 over Titans

Eagles -6.5 over Falcons

Browns +3 over Jaguars

These games all had me salivating as I was going through the week two lines, but they all have the potential to be nightmares masquerading as daydreams. First, Dallas looked great last weekend and now they’ve taken care of Dak Prescott and Ceedee Lamb financially. New Orleans pounded and kept pounding Carolina this week, but that doesn’t make the Saints good. It just confirms how bad the Panthers are.

Aaron “The Philosopher” Rodgers lost his first game back from an Achilles’ injury on Monday night, but there were flashes of brilliance. The Jets first touchdown drive was a surgical carving of a good San Francisco defense. San Francisco may have scored on eight consecutive possessions, but six of them were fields goals and that also says something positive about the Jets defense. Tennessee is a bad team with a reckless quarterback, see his atrocious pick six to give away a game last weekend, and the Jets defense will feast on that. It’s an atrocity that the Titans are favored. Grab your free cash.

Philadelphia’s offense looked great in Brazil other than one bad Jalen Hurts’ interception. Atlanta’s offense looked largely the same as last seasons, which is to say, it was mostly bad except for some Bijan Robinson brilliance. Also, just because he’s wearing a new uniform doesn’t mean Kirk Cousins’ record in primetime games suddenly gets expunged.

Cleveland may have gotten embarrassed by the Cowboys last weekend, and no I don’t feel great depending on Deshaun Watson, but the Browns still have one of the best defenses in the NFL. I expect Myles Garrett and the Browns front to make life difficult for Trevor Lawrence.

Tier 3: Now We Got Bad Blood (Season Record: 1-3)

Colts +3 over Packers

Dolphins -2.5 over Bills

Texans -6.5 over Bears

Indianapolis surprised me last week hanging close with a Texans team that picked up right where it left off last season. Anthony Richardson is raw as a quarterback, which we knew, but he’s also a dynamic playmaker, maybe even more than we realized. Green Bay lost Jordan Love for multiple weeks after he suffered a suspected sprained MCL late in the loss to Philadelphia. Love is the straw that stir’s the Packers offense and Malik Willis is not an adequate substitute. Fade Green Bay and, for fantasy purposes, its receivers until Love returns.

My initial thought for tonight’s Thursday Night Football game was that Buffalo is an appetizing underdog. Josh Allen might cook in this game, and he probably will. However, then you start to think about Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill running wild against this cobbled together Buffalo secondary, which is the biggest mismatch in the game, and it becomes harder to stomach. To the Bills fans in my life, I hope you “squish the fish”, but unless you suit up some members of the Miami PD you may struggle to slow down Miami’s receivers. (Sorry I couldn’t resist).

Chicago picked up the win in Caleb Williams’ debut, but it was largely a result of Will Levis’s inability to protect the football. If you watched this game, or even just looked at the box score, you’ll see that the Bears offense, including Williams, still have some work to do. Houston largely looks like a polished product on offense, even with adding Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon into a talented skill position room. The Texans may not have won convincingly in week one but looking between the lines they were the more impressive team.

Tier 4: I’m the Problem, It’s Me (Season Record: 3-0)

Bucs +7.5 over Lions

Vikings +6.5 over 49ers

Ravens -8.5 over Raiders

Broncos +2.5 over Steelers

Tampa Bay looked strong against an absolutely putrid Washington defense last weekend. That doesn’t tell us a whole lot, but they are still a competent unit and seven-and-a-half is a huge spread for a week two line. Detroit is the better team, but this line seems at least a point too high.

Minnesota, similar to the Buccaneers, embarrassed a horrific Giants defense. Don’t think I am suddenly a Sam Darnold believer, I’m not, but San Francisco is on a short week and Christian McCaffrey will likely be limited, if even available. In a short week with the 49ers traveling, Minnesota has enough talent on the roster and is well-coached enough to hang.

Baltimore loves to win but not cover these large spreads but expect them to come out with a vengeance after having their hearts ripped out by Kansas City yet again. They also have a long week of preparation and Las Vegas has the misfortune of having to go all the way to the West Coast. As I mentioned above, that usually doesn’t bode well for the team traveling East. The best part of the Raiders team is the pass rush, led by Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins, but Lamar Jackson is the perfect weapon to mitigate that.

Bo Nix and the Broncos are who I thought they were. The defense let them hang with Seattle for awhile and Nix didn’t make any disastrous plays. They are good enough not to be a home underdog against a mediocre Pittsburgh roster with a thin offensive line due to injury. This line makes little sense to me.

Tier 5: We are Never, Ever, Ever Getting Back Together (Season Record: 2-2)

Commanders -1.5 over Giants

Panthers +5.5 over Chargers

I’m sorry Giants and Brian Daboll. We are never, ever, ever getting better. I’m embarrassed that I picked Daniel Jones last week. Never again.

I’m fully prepared to insert “Panthers” and “Dave Canales” and “Bryce Young” into the above statement next week. I know this is probably foolish. However, the Chargers never, ever, ever play well in the Eastern time zone (see above principle) and they are laying five-and-a-half. Call me a sucker, but I can’t pass that up.

Season Record: 9-7

Cover Photo Courtesy of Andy Lyons/Getty Images